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Abstract:
This paper uses a unique representative firm level data set to analyse the effect of domestic and international competitive pressure and ownership changes in three emerging economies, Bulgaria Poland and Romania. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: Domestic competitive pressure, measured by market structure, and increased import penetration are associated with higher firm performance in Poland irrespective of the ownership structure of firms. Furthermore the positive effects of increased import competition are reinforced for foreign owned firms. In contrast, in Bulgaria and Romania, increased import penetration is associated with lower firm performance, while there is some evidence that more competitive market structures are associated with higher total factor productivity. However, these effects depend on the ownership structure of firms, which suggests the existence of complementarities between competitive pressure and ownership changes. The results also indicate that privatisation has positive effects on firm performance. In particular, domestic private firms and foreign owned firms outperform state owned firms. Furthermore, there is evidence that foreign owned firms do better than domestically owned private firms especially in Bulgaria and Poland. The results on ownership are somewhat weaker for Romania.

competitive pressure, privatisation, firm performance

Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect of U.S. border enforcement on the net flow of Mexican undocumented migration. It shows how this effect is theoretically ambiguous, given that increases in border controls deter prospective migrants from crossing the border illegally, but lengthen the duration of current illegal migrations. It then estimates the impact of enforcement on 1972-1993 migration net flows by merging aggregate enforcement data with micro data on potential and current illegal Mexican migrants. The econometric model accounts for the endogeneity of border controls using the Drug Enforcement Administration budget as an instrumental variable. Both the inflow and outflow of illegal Mexican migration are highly sensitive to changes in border enforcement. The estimates of the enforcement overall effect on illegal migration's net flow range across different specifications, from a decline - about 35% of the size of the effect on the inflow - to an increase. Thus, they suggest that border enforcement may not be an effective means to reduce the level of the illegal alien population in the United States.

illegal migration, border enforcement, Mexico

Abstract:
This paper models the short and medium-run impact of aid on migration, considering alternatively the effect of unconditional and conditional cash transfers to financially constrained households. Data from the evaluation of a Mexican development program, Progresa, are used to estimate the effect of the potential grant size on migration. The empirical analysis is consistent with model prediction. It shows that the program is associated with an increase in international migration, which is also a positive function of size of potential transfer. The grant may loosen financial constraints. At the same time, fine-tuned conditional grants targeting prospective migrants (in the form of secondary school subsidies) reduce the short-term migration probability. As regards medium-term migration, secondary school beneficiaries are not more likely to migrate than the control group after they complete the subsidised education cycle.

migration, aid, Progresa, Mexico

Abstract:
Aid programs in developing countries are likely to affect all households living in the treated areas, both eligible and non-eligible ones. Studies that focus on the treatment effect on the treated may fail to capture important spillover effects. We exploit the unique design of an aid program's experimental trial to identify its indirect effect on consumption for non-eligible households living in treated areas. We find that this effect is positive, and that it occurs through changes in the insurance and credit markets: non-eligible households receive more transfers, and borrow more when hit by a negative idiosyncratic shock, because of the program liquidity injection, thus they can reduce their precautionary savings. We also test for general equilibrium effects in the local labor and goods markets, finding no significant changes in labor income and prices, while there is a reduction in earnings from sales of agricultural products, which are now consumed. We show that this class of aid programs has important positive externalities, thus their overall effect is larger than the effect on the treated. Our results confirm that a key identifying assumption - that the treatment has no effect on the non-treated - is likely to be violated in similar policy designs.

program evaluation, consumption, Progresa

Abstract:
What causes alcohol abuse and domestic violence and how can we stop them? These behaviors have multiple determinants, making the effects of changes in wife's and husband's income ambiguous. This paper estimates the effects of exogenous changes in wife's and husband's income on husband alcohol abuse and alcohol-induced violence using new data from rural Mexico. A long-lasting 20 dollar monthly increase in wife income decreases husbands' alcohol abuse by 15% and aggressive behavior by 21%; the extra money increase the wife's freedom and security, is spent on individual and household goods, and it crowds out transfers from the husband only for 5% of the wives whose income increases. Alcohol abuse and violence are insensitive to short-term fluctuations in husband's income. These findings suggest that the wife uses her higher income to reduce the consumption of goods that lower her utility, that alcohol abuse responds more to changes in permanent than in temporary income, and that targeting women as recipients of micro-credit or of other welfare programs may have beneficial effects in reducing alcohol dependence and domestic violence.

public health, household behavior, Mexico

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effect of aid on international and domestic migration and explores the causal effect of income on migration. The theoretical model predicts that the effect of aid on migration is ambiguous, depending on both the size and type of transfers. For some household types, e.g., those that are credit constrained, conditional transfers, where the potential recipient has to comply with some requirement in order to qualify for eligibility, may decrease contemporaneous migration but increase future migration. In contrast, unconditional grants may increase the level of migration at all times. Randomized data from a Mexican development program, Progresa, are used to test these hypotheses. The empirical analysis verifies that unconditional transfers increase current migration, while conditional transfers reduce it. Overall, the program generates an increase in international migration but no change in domestic migration.

Abstract:
In this paper we discuss several methodological issues related to the identification and estimation of Average Treatment on the Treated (ATT) effects in the presence of low compliance. We consider non-experimental data consisting of a treatment group, where a program is implemented, and of a control group that is non-randomly drawn, where the program is not offered. Estimating the ATT involves tackling both the non-random assignment of the program and the non-random participation among treated individuals. We argue against standard matching approaches to deal with the latter issue because they are based on the assumption that we observe all variables that determine both participation and outcome. Instead, we propose an IV-type estimator which exploits the fact that the ATT can be expressed as the Average Intent to Treat divided by the participation share, in the absence of spillover effects. We propose a semi-parametric estimator that couples the flexibility of matching estimators with a standard Instrumental Variable approach. We discuss the different assumptions necessary for the identification of the ATT with each of the two approaches, and we provide an empirical application by estimating the effect of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program, Oportunidades, on food consumption.

program evaluation, treatment effects

Abstract:
This Paper uses a unique representative firm level data set to analyse the effect of domestic and international competitive pressure and ownership changes in three emerging economies, Bulgaria Poland and Romania. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: Domestic competitive pressure, measured by market structure, and increased import penetration are associated with higher firm performance in Poland irrespective of the ownership structure of firms. Furthermore the positive effects of increased import competition are reinforced for foreign owned firms. In contrast, in Bulgaria and Romania, increased import penetration is associated with lower firm performance, while there is some evidence that more competitive market structures are associated with higher total factor productivity. These effects depend, however, on the ownership structure of firms, which suggests the existence of complementarities between competitive pressure and ownership changes. The results also indicate that privatisation has positive effects on firm performance. In particular, domestic private firms and foreign-owned firms outperform state-owned firms. Furthermore, there is evidence that foreign-owned firms do better than domestically-owned private firms especially in Bulgaria and Poland. The results on ownership are somewhat weaker for Romania.

Competitive pressure, privatisation, firm performance

Abstract:
We present evidence on whether and how a household's behavior is influenced by the presence and characteristics of its extended family. Using data from the PROGRESA program in Mexico, we exploit information on the paternal and maternal surnames of heads and spouses in conjunction with the Spanish naming convention to identify the inter and intra generational family links of each household to others in the same village. We then exploit the randomized research design of the PROGRESA evaluation data to identify whether the treatment effects of PROGRESA transfers on secondary school enrolment vary according to the characteristics of extended family. We find PROGRESA only raises secondary enrolment among households that are embedded in a family network. Eligible but isolated households do not respond. The mechanism through which the extended family influences household schooling choices is the redistribution of resources within the family network from eligibles that receive de facto unconditional cash transfers from PROGRESA, towards eligibles on the margin of enrolling children into secondary school.

extended family network, PROGRESA, resource sharing, schooling

Abstract:
We present evidence on whether and how a household's behavior is influenced by the presence and characteristics of its extended family. Using household panel data from the Progresa program in rural Mexico, we exploit information on the paternal and maternal surnames of heads and spouses in conjunction with the Spanish naming convention to identify the inter and intra generational family links of each household to others in the same village. We then exploit the randomized research design of the Progresa evaluation data to identify whether the treatment effects of Progresa transfers on secondary school enrolment vary according to the presence and characteristics of extended family. We find that Progresa only raises secondary enrolment among households that are embedded in a family network. Eligible but isolated households do not respond. The mechanism through which the extended family influences household schooling choices is the redistribution of resources within the family network from eligibles that receive de facto unconditional cash transfers from Progresa, towards eligibles on the margin of enrolling their children into secondary school.

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Abstract:
Using data from a large enterprise-level panel designed to address this issue, we account for enterprise performance in Russia. We link performance to four aspects of the economic environment outlined in the literature: enterprise ownership; corporate governance; market structures and competition; and financial constraints. We conclude that private ownership and better performance are not correlated, though restructuring is positively associated with the competitiveness of the market environment. These findings on private ownership support those of previous studies, eg Earle and Estrin (1997). Moreover, we find only limited evidence that financially unconstrained firms are better in their undertaking of restructuring measures then financially constrained firms. Further analysis suggests that causality runs from restructuring to financial constraint, rather than the reverse. Finally, our findings indicate strong complementarities between the four factors influencing improved company performance, confirming the view that these factors need to be considered jointly.

Privatization, enterprise performance, competition, corporate governance, investment

Abstract:
This paper documents how the structure of extended family networks in rural Mexico relates to the poverty and inequality of the village of residence. Using the Hispanic naming convention, we construct within-village extended family networks in 504 poor rural villages. Family networks are larger (both in the number of members and as a share of the village population) and out-migration is lower the poorer and the less unequal the village of residence. Our results are consistent with the extended family being a source of informal insurance to its members.

extended family network, migration, village inequality, village marginality

Abstract:
This paper documents how the structure of extended family networks in rural Mexico relates to the poverty and inequality of the village of residence. Using the Hispanic naming convention, we construct within-village extended family networks in 504 poor rural villages. Family networks are larger (both in the number of members and as a share of the village population) and out-migration is lower the poorer and the less unequal the village of residence. Our results are consistent with the extended family being a source of informal insurance to its members.

extended family network, migration, village inequality, village marginality

Abstract:
In this paper we estimate the effect of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program, Oportunidades, on consumption, and we explore some issues related to participation to the program and to the estimation of treatment effects. We discuss the comparability of treatment and control areas, provide evidence that the expected transfer may not be sufficiently high to induce many eligible households to participate, and find positive effects on consumption.

program evaluation, consumption, matching, Oportunidades

Abstract:
We provide descriptive evidence on the characteristics of a household's extended family network using data from the Progresa social assistance program in rural Mexico. We exploit information on the paternal and maternal surnames of household heads and their spouses and the patronymic naming convention to identify the inter and intra generational family links of each household to others in the village. This provides an almost complete mapping of extended family networks structures across 506 Mexican villages, covering 22,000 households and over 130,000 individuals. We then provide evidence on (i) whether husbands and wives differ in the extent to which members of their extended family are located in geographic proximity; (ii) the characteristics that predict the existence of extended family links; (iii) the similarity of households within the same family network in terms of their poverty, and how this differs within and between generations of the extended family.

extended family network, Progresa

Abstract:
This paper uses a unique representative firm level data set to analyse the effect of domestic and international competitive pressure and ownership changes in three emerging economies, Bulgaria Poland and Romania. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: Domestic competitive pressure, measured by market structure, and increased import penetration are associated with higher firm performance in Poland irrespective of the ownership structure of firms. Furthermore the positive effects of increased import competition are reinforced for foreign owned firms. In contrast, in Bulgaria and Romania, increased import penetration is associated with lower firm performance, while there is some evidence that more competitive market structures are associated with higher total factor productivity. However, these effects depend on the ownership structure of firms, which suggests the existence of complementarities between competitive pressure and ownership changes. The results also indicate that privatisation has positive effects on firm performance. In particular, domestic private firms and foreign owned firms outperform state owned firms. Furthermore, there is evidence that foreign owned firms do better than domestically owned private firms especially in Bulgaria and Poland. The results on ownership are somewhat weaker for Romania.

competitive pressure, privatisation, firm performance