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Abstract:
An easy and popular method for measuring the size of the underground economy is to use macro-data such as money demand or electricity demand to infer what the legitimate economy needs, and then to attribute the remaining consumption to the underground economy. Such inferences rely on the stability of parameters of the money demand and electricity demand equations, or at the very least on knowledge of how these parameters are changing. We argue that the pace of change of these parameters (such as velocity) is too variable in transition economies for the above methods of estimating the size of the underground economy to be applicable. We make our point by using the Czech Republic and other transition country data from the financial and electricity sectors.

Shadow economy, measureament of tax evasion, transition economies

Abstract:
This paper analyses a 2002 survey of the Czech and Slovak Republics, and more limited surveys of Hungary and Poland to conclude that tax evasion is lowest among those who believe that they are getting good quality government services for the taxes they pay. A 20% increase in perceived quality of government services could lead to a 13% drop in the frequency of tax evasion. The present analysis is the first of this sort to indicate that quality of government services influences the willingness to pay taxes. Governments in transition countries who suffer from weak tax collection apparatus may wish to transmit clear information on the quality of their services in order to cut down on evasion.

Abstract:
An easy and popular method for measuring the size of the underground economy is to use macro data such as money demand or electricity demand to infer what the legitimate economy needs, and then to attribute the remaining consumption to the underground economy. Such inferences rely on the stability of parameters of the money demand and electricity demand equations, or at very least on knowledge of how these parameters are changing. We argue that the pace of change of these parameters is too variable in transition economies for the above methods of estimating the size of the underground economy to be applicable. We make our point by using Czech Republic and other transition country data from the financial and electricity sectors.

Abstract:
Using surveys of the Czech Republic taken in 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006 we measure how the percentage of tax evaders evolved from 1995 until 2006. We find that at first evasion rose, leveled off, and then fell along a quadratic path, suggesting the existence of what we call an evasional Kuznets curve. Our paper is the first to document the existence of an evasional Kuznets curve and to show how it can help improve Markov-chain predictions of tax evasion. We conclude by suggesting that the evasional Kuznets curve may be a subset of a larger trend in evasion for both transitional and developed economies.

Underground economy, tax evasion, Markov chains, transition, evasional Kuznets curve

Abstract:
We use a dataset of 1062 individuals from the Czech Republic to forecast the evolution of tax evasion in that country. We ask each respondent how intensely (never, sometimes, often) he evaded taxes in 1995, 1999, and 2000, to calculate probabilities the average individual will move between these categories of evasion in any given year. These "transition" probabilities allow us to predict a rising tide of tax evasion in the next decade. We estimate the reduced form parameters which determine evasion and suggest how government might influence these parameters to prevent the Czech Republic from bogging down in a permanent mire of tax evasion.

Tax evasion, transition economies, dynamic modelling, Czech Republic

Abstract:
This paper investigates the effects of the sources of candidates' campaign funding on their electoral outcomes, with particular emphasis on whether candidates who rely on a narrow base of funding suffer adverse electoral consequences. An extensive dataset consisting of over 650,000 contributions to House candidates in elections from 1980 to 1992 is used. The results reveal a negative relationship between the concentration of contributions and voteshare for open seat candidates and challengers. This may have significant implications for some of the empirical premises underlying the US Supreme Court's landmark Buckley v. Valeo decision. At the very least the finding is an important stylized fact about US elections which is robust over the 1980's and early 1990's.

Campaign contributions, Campaign finance, Free speech, Buckley v. Valeo