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Abstract:
This paper evaluates the governance performance of four small, open economy central banks. Two of these, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, are inflation targeting; the other two, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Monetary Authority of Singapore, place major emphasis on exchange rate stability.

The four have in common a considerable number of the elements seen as necessary for excellent governance. These include relevant statutory underpinnings, clarity of primary monetary policy goals, commitment to improved transparency and accountability for monetary policy decision making, and ongoing financial statement accountability. They also display significant differences in principle and in operating procedures, and hence in their monetary policy and corporate governance frameworks. In a broad sense, the differences can be associated with different primary goals, different constitutional environments, single-person or "committee" decision-making models, and the central banks having proceeded at different speeds to recognise the need for, and to commit fully to, optimal transparency and accountability.

There is "no one size fits all" best practice governance framework. The individual central banks should therefore continue aiming for excellence in monetary policy and corporate governance in their own rights, rather than for some common operational governance model. In this respect, a number of key desirable principles should be adhered to.

Central bank governance, corporate governance, monetary policy independence, credibility, transparency, accountability, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, inflation targeting, exchange rate targeting, currency board

Abstract:
This paper identifies the expansion and contraction phases of New Zealand's national and regional house prices, by employing techniques typically used to study cycles in real activity, the so-called Classical cycle dating method. We then enquire into the nature of the cycles, addressing five questions: (1) What are the New Zealand and regional house price cycles, and do the regional cycles differ from the national cycle?; (2) What are the typical durations, magnitudes and shapes of these house price cycles?; (3) Do cycles in house prices match cycles in economic activity, at either national or regional levels?; (4) Does it matter which of the two main sets of house price series are used? i.e. Quotable Value New Zealand (QVNZ) or Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ)?; and (5) Does the sample period matter? Findings are evaluated in the context of work by Grimes, Aitken and Kerr (2004), and Hall and McDermott (2005). Avenues for further research are suggested.

House price cycles, regional business cycles, classical business cycle, New Zealand

Abstract:
We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand's 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson-Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand's aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.

Classical business cycle, Turning Points, Regional business cycles, Concordance statistics, New Zealand

Abstract:
Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core FPS model show how New Zealand's broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been experienced. Relatively looser monetary conditions would have prevailed, and led to modest short-run output gains, greater excess demand pressures, noticeably higher CPI inflation rates over the whole of the 1990s, and less favourable trade balance outcomes, especially for the late 1990s. These macroeconomic outcomes are overall less favourable than those obtained from simulating the equivalent Australian monetary conditions.

Common currency, monetary policy, deterministic simulation, New Zealand, Australia, United States

Abstract:
Counterfactual experiments with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core model provide some insight into the implications for New Zealand's economic performance over the 1990s, had it credibly fixed its currency to the Australian dollar.

If New Zealand had faced the relatively more stimulatory Australian monetary conditions prevailing over the 1990s, then output growth may have been temporarily boosted. However, demand pressures would have probably been greater and inflation higher. In particular, results suggest that over the latter part of the 1990s annual inflation would have been around 1 percentage point higher on average.

Stochastic simulation experiments provide a vehicle to analyse what the implications of currency union might be more generally. Results suggest that if New Zealand were to lose its ability to set monetary policy independently, then the variability of inflation and output would increase over the business cycle.

Abstract:
There are no official quarterly real GDP estimates for New Zealand for the period prior to 1977. We develop a seasonally adjusted series for 1947q2 to 2006q2, by linking quarterly observations from two recent official series to temporally disaggregated observations for an earlier time period. Annual real GDP series are disaggregated, using the information from two quarterly diffusion indexes, developed by Haywood and Campbell (1976). Three econometric models are used: the Chow and Lin (1971) model that disaggregates the level of GDP; and the Fernández (1981) and Litterman (1983) models that disaggregate changes in GDP. Statistical properties of the series are evaluated, and movements in the new series are benchmarked against qualitative research findings from New Zealand's post-WWII economic history. Our preferred quarterly series is based on results generated from the Chow-Lin model.

Quarterly real GDP series, temporal disaggregation, business cycles, New Zealand