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Abstract:
Many markets have historically been dominated by a small number of best-selling products. The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80/20 rule, describes this common pattern of sales concentration. However, by greatly lowering search costs, information technology in general and Internet markets in particular have the potential to substantially increase the collective share of niche products, thereby creating a longer tail in the distribution of sales.

This paper investigates how demand-side factors contribute to the Internet's ¿Long Tail¿ phenomenon. It first models how a reduction in search costs will affect the concentration in product sales. Then, by analyzing data collected from a multi-channel retailing company, it provides empirical evidence that the Internet channel exhibits a significantly less concentrated sales distribution, when compared with traditional channels. The difference in the sales distribution is highly significant, even after controlling for consumer differences. Furthermore, the effect is particularly strong for individuals with more prior experience using the Internet channel. We find evidence that Internet purchases made by consumers with prior Internet experience are more skewed toward obscure products, compared with consumers who have no such experience. We observe the opposite outcome when comparing purchases by the same consumers through the catalog channel. If the relationships we uncover persist, the underlying trends in technology and search costs portend an ongoing shift in the distribution of product sales.

search cost, product variety, concentration, long tail, Internet, electronic commerce

Abstract:
We present a framework and empirical estimates that quantify the economic impact of increased product variety made available through electronic markets. While efficiency gains from increased competition significantly enhance consumer surplus, for instance by leading to lower average selling prices, our present research shows that increased product variety made available through electronic markets can be a significantly larger source of consumer surplus gains.

One reason for increased product variety on the Internet is the ability of online retailers to catalog, recommend and provide a large number of products for sale. For example, the number of book titles available at Amazon.com is over 23 times larger than the number of books on the shelves of a typical Barnes & Noble superstore and 57 times greater than the number of books stocked in a typical large independent bookstore.

Our analysis indicates that the increased product variety of online bookstores enhanced consumer welfare by $731 million to $1.03 billion in the year 2000, which is between seven to ten times as large as the consumer welfare gain from increased competition and lower prices in this market. There may also be large welfare gains in other SKU-intensive consumer goods such as music, movies, consumer electronics, and computer software and hardware.

Consumer Surplus, Product Variety, Electronic Markets

Abstract:
The Internet is a much more accountable and measurable medium than traditional media. The unique property of the Internet being a medium with bidirectional information flows has enabled performance-based pricing models that tie online advertising payments directly to campaign measurement data such as click-throughs and purchases. These pricing models have become increasingly popular in the online advertising industry.

This paper provides explanations as to when and how incorporating performance-based pricing models into advertising deals can be profitable. We argue that the publisher can make non-contractible efforts that may improve the effectiveness of advertising campaigns. These efforts are costly to the publisher. Therefore, performance-based pricing models can be used to give the publisher proper incentives to make its efforts.

We derive an optimal contract that maximizes the sum of the advertiser's utility and the publisher's utility, and show that key factors that influence the use of performance-based pricing models are the importance of the publisher's incremental efforts, precision of click-through measurement, and uncertainty in the product market. We also clarify issues that are being debated in the industry, such as how the importance of the advertiser's incremental efforts and existence of non-immediate purchases affect the use of performance-based pricing models.

Online advertising, pricing model, incentive, performance

Abstract:
We use a controlled field experiment to investigate the dynamic effects of retail advertising. The experimental design overcomes limitations hindering previous investigations of this issue. Our study uncovers dynamic advertising effects that have not been considered in previous literature. We find that current advertising does affect future sales, but surprisingly, the effect is not always positive; for the firm’s best customers, the long-run outcome may be negative. This finding reflects two competing effects: brand switching and intertemporal substitution. We also find evidence of cross-channel substitution, with the firm’s best customers switching demand to the ordering channel that corresponds to the advertising.

Abstract:
We present findings from a controlled field experiment that allows us to investigate the dynamic effects of retail advertising. The experimental design overcomes limitations that have hindered previous investigations of this issue. Our study uncovers dynamic advertising effects that have not been previously considered in the literature. We find that current advertising does affect future sales but surprisingly, the affect is not always positive; for the firm's best customers the long-run outcome may be negative. We argue that this finding reflects two competing effects: brand-switching and intertemporal substitution. The study also provides evidence of cross-channel substitution, with the firm's best customers switching demand to the ordering channel that corresponds to the advertising.

Advertising, Direct Mail, Field Experiment, Internet, Catalog, long-run demand

Abstract:
A key question for Internet commerce is the nature of competition with traditional brick-and-mortar retailers. Although traditional retailers vastly outsell Internet retailers in most product categories, research on Internet retailing has largely neglected this fundamental dimension of competition. Is cross-channel competition significant, and, if so, how and where can Internet retailers win this battle? This paper attempts to answer these questions using a unique combination of data sets. We collect data on local market structures for traditional retailers, and then match these data to a data set on consumer demand via two direct channels: Internet and catalog. Interestingly, our analyses show that Internet retailers face significant competition from brick-and-mortar retailers when selling mainstream products, but are virtually immune from competition when selling niche products. Furthermore, since the Internet channel sells proportionately more niche products than the catalog channel - a phenomenon sometimes called the "Long Tail", the competition between the Internet channel and local stores is less intense than the competition between the catalog channel and local stores. The methods we introduce can be used to analyze cross-channel competition in other product categories, and suggest that managers need to take into account the types of products they sell when assessing competitive strategies.

Internet markets, electronic commerce, competition, retailing, channel, niche products, geography

Abstract:
Trust is particularly important in online markets to facilitate the transfer of sensitive consumer information to online retailers. In electronic markets, various proposals have been made to facilitate these information transfers. We develop analytic models of hidden information to analyze the effectiveness of these regimes to build trust and their efficiency in terms of social welfare.

We find that firms' ability to influence consumer beliefs about trust depends on whether firms can send unambiguous signals to consumers regarding their intention of protecting privacy. Ambiguous signals can lead to a breakdown of consumer trust, while the clarity and credibility of the signal under industry self-regulation can lead to enhanced trust and improved social welfare. Our results also indicate that although overarching government regulations can enhance consumer trust, regulation may not be socially optimal in all environments because of lower profit margins for firms and higher prices for consumers.

Privacy, asymmetric information, Internet, consumer surplus, producer surplus, social welfare

Abstract:
Dozens of markets of all types are in the early stages of a revolution as the Internet and related technologies vastly expand the variety of products that can be produced, promoted and purchased. Although this revolution is based on a simple set of economic and technological drivers, the authors argue that its implications are far-reaching for managers, consumers and the economy as a whole. This article looks at what has been dubbed the "Long Tail" phenomenon, examining how customers derive value from an important characteristic of Internet markets: the ability of online merchants to help consumers locate, evaluate and purchase a far wider range of products than they can typically buy via the traditional brick-and-mortar channels.

The article examines the Long Tail from both the supply side and the demand side and identifies several key drivers. On the supply side, the authors point out how e-tailers' expanded, centralized warehousing allows for more offerings, thus making it possible for them to cater to more varied tastes. On the demand side, tools such as search engines, recommender software and sampling tools are allowing customers to find products outside of their geographic area. The authors also look toward the future to discuss second order amplified effects of Long Tail, including the growth of markets serving smaller niches.

Product Variety, The Long Tail, Search Costs, Recommender Systems, Strategy