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Abstract:
This paper traces the history and the institutional background to the establishment of the Economic and Monetary Union in the EU. It argues that since the establishment of the European Economic Community (EEC) in the late 1950s, attempts at monetary integration and ultimately monetary union, have tended to assume importance only as a result of financial crisis and becoming a vague objective as soon as the crisis recedes. In recent years, however, this search has assumed greater urgency for a number of reasons explored in the paper. Economic Union, on the other hand, has followed a smoother transition. Economic integration was used after the Second World War to raise political goals, chiefly to anchor West Germany within Western European alliance. Since that time the economies of member states have slowly integrated. The economic environmment which existed in the 1950s is a far cry from the integrated European Community of today. In the 1950s, European currencies were not convertible and domestic trade was highly protected. Intra-European trade was based on bilateral clearing arrangements institutionalised by the European Payments Union. Today EU currencies are fully convertible. Capital controls, intra-EU tariffs and quotas have been eliminated, and the single market has been completed.

The path which monetary union followed has gone through a number of stages. The Werner Plan of the early 1970s which set the goal of economic and monetary union by the end of the decade was only partially implemented. Its failure can be put down to unfavourable international economic conditions and poor institutional structures. In the early 1980s, a new monetary initiative was launched, the European Monetary System (EMS) which was condemned to failure by many. However, it struggled on through its initial phase until it was replaced by the current EURO arrangements. Each process should be interpreted as a building block of monetary union which ultimately culminated in the Maastricht Treaty that laid out a precise path and timetable for economic and monetary union.

Abstract:
This paper re-examines the question of causality between financial development and economic growth. We argue that recent results obtained from cross-section country studies are not able to address this issue satisfactorily. Drawing on the distinction between "bank-based" and "capital-market-based" financial systems and the literature on financial repression we also argue that country specific factors are likely to influence the causal nature of the relationship between financial development and economic growth; as a result this is expected to vary across countries. We conduct cointegration and causality tests using time series data for twelve representative countries which corroborate our analysis.

Abstract:
Within the framework of macroeconomic policy and theory over the past twenty years or so, a major shift has occurred regarding the relative importance given of monetary policy versus fiscal policy. The former has gained considerably in stature, while the latter is rarely mentioned. Further, monetary policy no longer focuses on attempts to control some monetary aggregate, as it did in the first half of the 1980s, but instead focuses on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift toward the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the emphasis of monetary policy, questions its effectiveness, and explores the role of fiscal policy. We examine these subjects from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that its analysis is rather limited. When the analysis is broadened to embrace empirical issues and evidence, the conclusion clearly emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. We argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy, particularly under current economic conditions.

monetary policy, fiscal policy, effectiveness

Abstract:
This paper attempts to define financial globalization as a process whereby financial markets internationally are integrated so closely that they can be considered as a single market. The process, viewed as a by-product of financial liberalization, is only a necessary condition for financial globalization, however. The sufficient condition is the creation of world-wide single currency, managed and regulated by a single international monetary authority. The system itself needs to be managed carefully to avoid the kind of crises countries have experienced over the last 30 years or so. This sufficient condition has not yet been met.

Financial globalization, financial liberalization, financail regulation

Abstract:
This paper explores some of the links between macroeconomic policy and industrial strategy. The perspective of the present paper is to emphasize the role of the output and investment activities of enterprises rather than the general focus on the labor market in the determination of economic performance. We have explored this aspect in some detail in connection with the inflation barrier and argue that such a barrier should be viewed in terms of a lack of capacity. We briefly review the balance of trade constraint on growth and employment. The overall implications of those two sets of analyses is that macroeconomic performance would be enhanced by appropriate industrial strategy and that inappropriate macroeconomic policies will damage industrial performance. Policies designed to restrain inflation by lowering the level of aggregate demand will tend to depress investment and harm capacity. Improved industrial performance requires a climate conducive to investment and research and development, which in turn depends on, inter alia, high and stable levels of aggregate demand.

Abstract:
Current monetary policy involves the manipulation of the Central Bank interest rate (the repo rate), with the specific objective of achieving the goal(s) of monetary policy. The latter is normally the inflation rate, although in a number of instances this may include the level of economic activity (the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy is a good example of this category). This raises two issues. The first is the theoretical underpinnings of this mode of monetary policy. The second is the channels of monetary policy or, more concretely, the channels through which changes in the rate of interest may affect the ultimate goal(s) of policy. Both aspects are investigated in this paper. Furthermore, we suggest that it is imperative to consider the empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy. We summarise results drawn from the eurozone, the U.S. and the UK and suggest that these empirical results point to a relatively weak effect of interest rate changes on inflation. We also suggest, on the basis of the evidence adduced in the paper, that monetary policy can have long-run effects on real magnitudes. This particular result does not fit comfortably with the theoretical basis of current thinking on monetary policy.

Monetary Policy, Central Banks, Euro

Abstract:
There are many recent worldwide examples of severe financial crises that are linked to periods of financial liberalization. Given the ubiquity of these crises, there is the legitimate question of why governments still pursue financial liberalization policies. Answers to this question range from the recent institutionalization of norms of "acceptable" financial policies and perceived potential gains of attracting private capital inflows to the implied gains arising from the economic logic embedded in the theory underlying financial liberalization. This paper will focus on the latter arguing that financial transformation along the lines proposed by McKinnon-Shaw has engendered widespread banking crises precisely because of the weak foundations of the theory. The financial liberalization theory is critically evaluated on both theoretical and empirical grounds. An alternative theoretical approach is presented that focuses on ways to effect financial and banking transformation that is more consistent with economic development that draws on an institutional-centric perspective.

financial liberalization, banking crises, institutional-centric perspectives

Abstract:
We address the issue of whether financial structure influences economic growth. Three competing views of financial structure exist in the literature: the bank-based, the market-based and the financial services view. Recent empirical studies examine their relevance by utilizing panel and cross-section approaches. This paper, for the first time ever, utilizes time series data and methods, along with the Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel approach, on developing countries. We find significant cross-country heterogeneity in the dynamics of financial structure and economic growth, and conclude that it is invalid to pool data across our sample countries. We find significant effects of financial structure on real per capita output, which is in sharp contrast to some recent findings. Panel estimates, in most cases, do not correspond to country-specific estimates, and hence may proffer incorrect inferences for several countries of the panel.

Financial structure, economic development, vector error-correlation model, dynamic heterogeneous panels

Abstract:
The euro was adopted as legal tender, albeit in a virtual form, by 11 countries of the European Union on January 1, 1999, with the intention that notes and coins denominated in euros would be introduced and the national currencies would be phased out during the first six months of that year and that the euro would be fully operational by 2002. This paper first reviews the current position of the EMU member states in relation to the convergence criteria under the Maastricht Treaty and finds that there must have been a considerable degree of "fudge" for the criteria to have been met. The paper next looks at the central role of aggregate demand in the EMU and at concerns about unemployment. It next examines the prospects of the current EMU arrangements, concluding that they are highly deflationary. To overcome the deflationary bias of current proposals and as a means to alleviate the serious unemployment problem, the authors recommend that the European Central Bank be enhanced by (1) the development of a new institution, the European Union Development Bank, and (2) a modification of the Stability and Growth Pact.

Abstract:
Financial reforms, and financial liberalization in particular, have been at the root of many recent cases of financial and banking crises. In several countries financial reforms allowed real interest rates to reach levels exceeding 20 percent per annum in some cases; in other cases, banking and financial crises led to currency crises. National governments either abandoned attempts at implementing financial liberalization (some countries even reimposed controls) or were forced to intervene by nationalizing banks and guaranteeing deposits. This paper draws on this experience to show that the main cause of these crises is the application of a theoretical framework that is predicated on a number of assumptions that are problematic and based on weak empirical foundations. Consequently, it should be no surprise that the reforms were often unsuccessful and in many cases led to severe financial crises. We will also argue that the case of Egypt is particularly interesting in this regard, since although financial reforms have been enacted, the experience has been rather different: There has been no accompanying financial crisis.

Financial reforms, financial crises, developing countries, Egypt

Abstract:
Financial development and its effects on the economic development of a country has recently been one of the most prolific areas of research in the fields of development, finance, and international economics. So far, however, very little work has been done to analyze comprehensively the relationship between financial liberalization and poverty. There is still controversy about the exact role and the effectiveness of financial liberalization on improving economic conditions in developing countries. This paper aims to contribute to this debate by critically reviewing the relevant literature and looking closely at the channels through which financial liberalization can affect poverty.

Financial liberalization, economic development, poverty

Abstract:
In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France). Following Forbes and Rigobon (2002), we test for contagion as a significant positive shift in the correlation between asset returns, taking into account heteroscedasticity and endogeneity bias. Furthermore, we improve on earlier empirical studies by carrying out a full sample test of the stability of the system that relies on more plausible (over)identifying restrictions. The estimation results provide some evidence of contagion, in particular from Japan (the major nternational lender in the region), which drastically cut its credit lines to the other Asian countries in 1997.

Contagion, Financial crises, Conditional Correlation

Abstract:
It is often asserted that, whatever role Keynesian policies may have played in underpinning the long post-war boom, those policies are no longer relevant. In contrast this paper seeks to reassert the need for Keynesian policies in order to secure full employment. In doing so, as will be seen below, we interpret Keynesian economic policies in a rather broad sense and specifically wish to distance ourselves from treating Keynesian policies as virtually synonymous with fiscal demand management designed to fine tune the economy. We also recognize that there are many constraints on the pursuit of full employment, arising from the demand and the supply sides, and that the key objective of Keynesian policies is to alleviate those constraints in the pursuit of full employment.

This paper puts forward an approach to economic policy which could be described as post Keynesian. Since the term Keynesian policies has been variously defined, we indicate in section II what we mean by the term, which is broader than most usages. The case for Keynesian policies arises out of, and can only be appreciated by reference to, a conception underlying this paper in section III. This is further elaborated in section IV by a consideration of the constraints on the achievement on full employment in a market economy. This leads into section V in which we outline the nature of Keynesian policies which relate to both the demand side and the supply side of the economy. The final main section, section VI, considers some of the constraints on the implementation of the type of Keynesian policies which we are advocating.

Abstract:
It has been argued that the eurozone will face considerable economic difficulties. These will take a number of forms, two of which could qualify as "crises." First, the euro was launched at a time when unemployment levels were high (10 percent of the workforce) and disparities in the experience of unemployment and standards of living were particularly severe. These high levels of unemployment are likely to continue in the foreseeable future, and the policy arrangements that surround the operation of the euro, notably the objectives of the European Central Bank and the workings of the Stability and Growth Pact, will have a deflationary bias. These levels of and disparities in unemployment could be termed a crisis. Second, the introduction of the euro and the associated institutional setting could well serve to exacerbate tendencies toward financial crisis, including the volatility and subsequent collapse of asset prices and runs on the banking system. Some additional forces of instability may arise from the current trade imbalances and the relationship between the dollar and the euro as two major global currencies. Further, the operating arrangements of the European System of Central Banks can be seen as inadequate to cope with such financial crises.

Abstract:
Equity prices have been falling since March 2000. How far can they fall before they reach bottom? The current bear market differs from the mid-1970s plunge in equity prices in terms of the causes and, consequently, the factors that should be monitored to test its progress. In the 1970s, the bear market was caused by soaring inflation resulting from a surge in the price of oil. It eroded households' real disposable income and corporate profits. That was a supply-led business cycle. Now, the bear market is caused by asset and debt deflation triggered by the burst of the "new economy" bubble. This working paper argues that on current economic fundamentals, the Standard & Poor's (S&P) index is fairly valued at 871, but the fair value may fall if the economy has a double-dip recession that triggers a property market crash. We suggest that the U.S. economy is heading for such a recession, as the poor prospects of the corporate sector are affecting the real disposable income of the personal sector. The forces that drive the economy back to recession are related to imbalances in the corporate and personal sectors that have started infecting the balance sheet of the commercial banks. The final stage of the asset-and-debt-deflation process involves a spiral between banks and the nonbank private sector (personal and corporate). Banks cut lending to the nonbank private sector, creating a credit crunch that worsens the economic health of the latter, which is reflected subsequently as a further deterioration of banks' balance sheets.

equity prices, asset and debt deflation

Abstract:
We contribute to the debate on whether the US large federal budget deficits are sustainable in the long run. We model the US government deficit per capita as a threshold autoregressive process. We find evidence that the US budget deficit is sustainable in the long run and that economic policymakers will only intervene to reduce per capita deficit when it reaches a certain threshold.

Government Deficit, Threshold, Unit Root

Abstract:
In recent years free movement of financial capital following financial liberalization has given the impression that financial markets are truly globalized. In this paper we argue that free movement of financial capital alone does not constitute financial globalization. To achieve true financial globalization, an important requirement is the creation of a worldwide single currency, managed by a single international monetary authority. This condition, however, is not met under current institutional arrangements.

Financial Capital, Globalization

Abstract:
Since the early 1990s, a number of countries have adopted Inflation Targeting (IT) in an effort to reduce inflation. Most literature has praised IT as a superior framework of monetary policy. We suggest that IT is a major policy prescription closely associated with the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM). Focusing mainly on the IT aspects of the NCM, we address and assess the theoretical foundations of IT, and then assess the empirical work on IT, distinguishing between work that utilizes structural macroeconomic models and work based on single-equation techniques. The IT theoretical framework and the available empirical evidence do not appear to support the views of IT proponents.

Abstract:
In this paper we seek first to set out the economic analysis that underpins the ideas of what has been termed the "third way." The explicit mention of the "third way" is much diminished since the early days of the Blair government in the UK and the Schroeder government in Germany. We argue that the ideas associated with the "third way" continue to influence these governments and, more broadly, other governments and the European Union, and that these ideas are firmly embedded in New Keynesian economics. Our paper then focuses on some particular aspects of New Keynesian economics and its emphasis on the role of monetary policy and the downgrading of fiscal policy. There has emerged a so-called "new consensus" on macroeconomic policy (specifically, monetary policy), which we regard as an outgrowth of New Keynesian economics. We review this "new consensus" and argue that the empirical evidence on the operation of monetary policy reveals that such a policy is rather impotent. Insofar as it does have an effect, it operates to influence the level of investment, which in turn affects the future level and distribution of productive capacity. Thus, contrary to the prevailing view, monetary policy is not an effective way to control inflation, but it can have effects on the real side of the economy. The lack of attention to fiscal policy and the overemphasis on monetary policy leaves the European Union and its member countries without the means to tackle any serious recession or upsurge of inflation.

New Consensus, New Keynesianism, Thirdway

Abstract:
This paper proposes an alternative stability and growth pact among European Union (EU) governments that would underpin the introduction of a single currency and a "single market" within the EU. The alternative pact embraces a number of new aspects of integration within the EU that are based on a different monetary analysis (different from that of "new monetarism"), new objectives for economic policy (such as employment and growth), and new institutions to reduce various kinds of disparities across the EU. The paper begins by critically examining the Stability and Growth Pact, which accompanied the introduction of the euro in January 1999, but which has not received as much attention in the policy debates on the euro as some other aspects of it. This is followed by a discussion of the institutional underpinnings of the euro, with the argument made that the institutional arrangements have a number of weaknesses. An alternative pact governing monetary and fiscal policy, which contains the promotion of the objective of full employment and that requires the creation of new institutions, is proposed.

Abstract:
This paper examines the causes of the general decline in the value of the euro by assessing the various explanations proffered in existing literature, then offering a more satisfactory explanation. The argument prevalent in the literature - that the decline in value of the euro is due to a U.S. strength - rather than to any inherent difficulties with its imposition - is viewed as somewhat undeveloped. We suggest that U.S. strength is an important but only partial factor in euro decline; the other side of U.S. strength is eurozone weakness. We review the (poor) performance of the ECB and assess the level of macroeconomic convergence of eurozone countries. We conclude that a combination of eurozone weakness, endogenous to the inception of the euro, and U.S. strength is the most plausible explanation for the euro's decline in value. We find that although the future value of the euro is uncertain, the prospects for the eurozone will remain bleak as long as the current institutions underpinning the euro, with their inherent tendencies to promote deflation, are in place.

Abstract:
In this paper, the author aims to question the assumptions underlying the economic case for the independent European Central Bank (ECB) and argues that although a European Clearing Agency (ECA) of the type Keynes envisaged for the international economy is not a panacea for the economic problems of the European Union (EU); it is, nonetheless, a better way forward and far superior to the ECB. The paper (1) outlines the theoretical basis of Keynesian monetary and financial theory; (2) aims to ascertain the extent to which credit availability is affected by the creation of an ECB and, on that basis, to offer a critical analysis of current proposals for an ECB; (3) looks closely at the case for the ECA, seen as performing a range of functions rather than having a remit defined simply in terms of strict monetary control, including a commitment to providing the necessary finance for full employment and a responsibility for ensuring that the burden of balance-of-payments adjustment falls upon both deficit and surplus countries.

Abstract:
This paper reconsiders the case for the use of fiscal policy based on a "functional finance" approach that advocates the use of fiscal policy to secure high levels of demand in the context of private aggregate demand, which would otherwise be too low. This "functional finance" view means that any budget deficit should be seen as a response to the perceived excess of private savings over investment at the desired level of economic activity. The paper outlines the "functional finance" approach and its relationship with fiscal policy. It then considers the three lines of argument that have been advanced against fiscal policy on the grounds of "crowding out." These lines are based on the response of interest rates, the supply-side equilibrium, and Ricardian equivalence. The paper advances the view that the arguments, which have been deployed against fiscal policy to the effect that it does not raise the level of economic activity, do not apply when a "functional finance" view of fiscal policy is adopted. A section on the intertermporal budget constraint considers whether this constraint rules out budget deficits, and concludes that in general it does not.

fiscal policy, functional finance, Ricardian Equivalence Theorem, inter-temporal budget constraint

Abstract:
This paper considers the nature and role of monetary policy when money is modelled as credit money endogenously created within the private sector. There are currently two schools of thought that view money as endogenous: one has been labelled the 'new consensus' in macroeconomics, and the other is the Keynesian endogenous (bank) money approach. The paper first explores the analysis of monetary policy in the 'new consensus' macroeconomic model, followed by an examination of the effectiveness of monetary policy in that analysis. The Keynesian view of endogenous money is discussed, and the role for monetary policy in a Keynesian endogenous monetary policy analysis is considered, including discussion of the objectives and instruments of monetary policy.

Interest rate policy, 'New consensus', Endogenous money, Role of monetary policy

Abstract:
This paper considers the nature and role of monetary policy when money is envisaged as credit money endogenously created within the private sector (by the banking system). Monetary policy is now based in many countries on the setting (or targeting) of a key interest rate, such as the Central Bank discount rate. The amount of money in existence then arises from the interaction of the private sector and the banks, based on the demand to hold money and the willingness of banks to provide loans. Monetary policy has become closely linked with the targeting of the rate of inflation. In this paper we consider whether monetary policy is well-equipped to act as a counter-inflation policy and discuss the more general role of monetary policy in the context of the treatment of money as endogenous. Currently, two schools of thought view money as endogenous. One school has been labeled the "new consensus" and the other the Keynesian endogenous (bank) money approach. Significant differences exist between the two approaches; the most important of these, for the purposes of this paper, is in the way in which the endogeneity of money is viewed. Although monetary policy - essentially interest rate policy - appears to be the same in both schools of thought, it is not. In this paper we investigate the differing roles of monetary policy in these two schools.

monetary policy, new consensus, endogenous money

Abstract:
Recent developments in macroeconomic policy, in terms of both theory and practice, have elevated monetary policy while downgrading fiscal policy. Monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument, along with the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. Elsewhere, we have critically examined the significance of this shift, which led us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy. We have also explored the role of fiscal policy and argued that it should be reinstated. This contribution aims to consider further that conclusion. We consider at length fiscal policy within the current "new consensus" theoretical framework. We find the proposition of this thinking, that fiscal policy provides at best a limited role, unconvincing. We examine the possibility of crowding out and the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem. A short review of quantitative estimates of fiscal policy multipliers gives credence to our theoretical conclusions. Our overall conclusion is that, under specified conditions, fiscal policy is a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy.

fiscal policy, crowding out, Ricardian Equivalence Theorem

Abstract:
We contribute to the debate on whether the large U.S. federal budget deficits are sustainable in the long run. We model the U.S. government deficit per capita as a threshold autoregressive process. We find evidence that the U.S. budget deficit is sustainable in the long run and that economic policymakers will intervene to reduce per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold.

Government Deficit, Threshold, Unit Root

Abstract:
We contribute to the debate on whether the large U.S. federal budget deficits are sustainable in the long run. We model the U.S. government deficit per capita as a threshold autoregressive process. We find evidence that the U.S. budget deficit is sustainable in the long run and that economic policymakers will intervene to reduce per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold.

Government Deficit, Threshold, Unit Root

Abstract:
We collect data on a number of financial restraints, including restrictions on interest rates and capital flows and reserve and liquidity requirements, and capital adequacy requirements from central banks of 14 countries. We estimate the effects of these policies on the aggregate productivity of the capital stock, controlling for the effects of inputs and financial development and using modern econometric techniques. We find that financial development has positive effects on productivity, while the effects of financial policies vary considerably across countries. Our findings demonstrate that financial liberalization is a much more complex process than has been assumed by earlier literature, and its effects on macroeconomic aggregates are ambiguous.

Capital Stock, Financial Development, Financial Policies

Abstract:
This paper presents two issues: First, an effort to decipher the type of economic analysis and macroeconomic policies of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) theoretical and policy framework, which we suggest are essentially of the "new consensus" variety; Second, an argument that the challenges to the EMU macroeconomic policies lie in their potential to achieve full employment and low inflation in the euro area. We conclude that the institutional and policy arrangements surrounding the EMU and the euro are neither adequate for dealing with today's problems of unemployment and inflation nor promising for the future. We propose alternative policies, and institutional arrangements.

macroeconomic policies, EMU, monetary policy, fiscal policy

Abstract:
This paper examines the performance of monetary policy in eleven EMU countries for the whole period of the EMS. This is based on the trade-off between inflation variability and output-gap variability. To this end, we examine whether the introduction of an implicit inflation targeting by the EMU member countries after the Maastricht Treaty, changed the trade-off between inflation variability and output-gap variability. We employ a stochastic volatility model for two sub-periods of the EMS (i.e. before and after the Maastricht Treaty). We find that the trade-off varies amongst EMU countries. The implication of these findings is that there are asymmetries in the euro area, due to different economic structures among the member countries of the EMU.

Abstract:
This paper examines two issues. First, we compare, based on the ratio of output-gap variability to inflation variability, the monetary policy performance of eleven EMU countries for the whole period of the EMS. Second, we examine whether the introduction of an implicit inflation-targeting by the EMU member countries after the Maastricht Treaty changed the trade-off between inflation variability and output-gap variability. We employ a stochastic volatility model for the whole period of the EMS and for two sub-periods (i.e., before and after the Maastricht Treaty). We find that for the whole period the trade-off ratio varies among EMU countries, especially in the case where industrial production is utilized to construct the output-gap variable. The results also vary from the point of view of how the trade-off variabilities change for each country before and after the Maastricht Treaty. The implication of these findings is that asymmetries exist in the euro area as a result of either different monetary policy preferences or different economic structures among the EMU's member countries.

EMU, inflation-targeting, output-gap variability

Abstract:
This paper explores the probable consequences for public expenditure in the UK if Britain were to join the euro. It focuses on the effects of sterling joining the euro (and the associated implications, such as monetary policy being governed by the European Central Bank). It does not consider any broader questions of the effects of membership in the European Union and the policies pursued by the EU and the European Commission. Since the fiscal stance of government influences the level of demand in the economy, there are also important implications for the level of employment more generally. While the general deflationary nature of the economic policy of the eurozone (an issue we have explored elsewhere on many occasions) should not be overlooked, the focus of this paper is on the implications for public expenditure of the eurozone and the UK's possible entry into the euro.

euro, public expenditure, monetary policy

Abstract:
The aim of this study is to estimate the credibility of monetary policy in four accession countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic), based on the Markov regime-switching (MRS) framework. We utilize the theoretical proposition that in the conduct of monetary policy, there is uncertainty in terms of the type of central bank. We measure this uncertainty as a deviation of monetary policy from a target level. We utilize for the target level the differential between the interest rates of the four individual accession countries and a "synthetic" interest rate of 11 EMU member countries.

monetary policy, credibility, Markov regime-switching

Abstract:
In the United Kingdom the emergence of a "New Labour" has been closely associated with the development of the notion of the "third way." Tony Blair, for example, stated that "New Labour is neither old left nor new right. . . . Instead we offer a new way ahead, that leads from the centre but is profoundly radical in the change it promises." In a similar vein Giddens locates the "third way" by reference to two other "ways" of classical social democracy and neoliberalism. Although some notable contributions have been made on the subject of the "third way," rather little has been written specifically on the economic analysis underpinning it. This paper infers such an analysis by working back from the policies and policy pronouncements of governments. To do so, the paper examines the types of economic analyses being used to underpin the ideas of the "third way"; the suggestion that the ideas surrounding the economic analysis of the economic and monetary union's (EMU's) theoretical and policy framework are firmly embedded in that of "third way"; and the argument that the challenge for EMU macropolicies lies in their potential to achieve full employment and low inflation in the euro system. On the last point, the author concludes that these policies, as they currently operate, are not very promising. Alternatives are therefore suggested.

third way, New Labour, EMU

Abstract:
The persistence of high unemployment has been one of the most puzzling developments of the past twenty years or so. In the UK, unemployment averaged 2.1% between 1966 and 1973, and since 1974 it has risen to an average of 7.5%. The prevailing view of the persistence of unemployment and of the continuous rise in the NAIRU is that explanations and solutions can only be found on the supply side and not on the demand side of the economy. Most economists regard the problem of job creation mainly as a matter of encouraging more employment with the existing stock of capital. However, any long-run analysis should consider that the capital stock may vary. The relationship between capital stock and employment may be a simple explanation which suggests that investment in new productive capacity increases the number of jobs, while the destruction of existing capacity may destroy jobs. It may also be that the fall in investment encourages asymmetric responses in the labour market and thus the persistence of unemployment.

This paper is concerned with the determination of aggregate wages and unemployment in the UK. We try to explain the persistence of unemployment by beginning with theories that concentrate on supply side failures in the labour market. The model is extended by examining the relationship between capital stock and employment. It is argued that the fall in investment over the last twenty years or so is one of the major elements behind the fall in employment and that only a substantial rise in productive capital may reduce unemployment. It is also argued that capital scrapping during the two oil price shocks, combined with low investment subsequently, may have caused long-term unemployment. This is not to say that low skill or other worker characteristics are not important, but that investment-enhancing policies may have prevented long-term unemployment to some extent.

Furthermore, we introduce a new dimension to the discussion of money wage determination and unemployment by incorporating non-linearities in the relationship. There are various reasons for expecting that wages adjust with different speed to disequilibrium errors. The asymmetric error correction model applied here, accounts for the different speeds of adjustment in response to deviations of the actual unemployment rate from the attractor, the NAIRU.

The empirical investigation tests each of the hypotheses put forward. Firstly, we find that capital shortage increases NAIRU. Secondly, we test and establish that a fall in investment creates long-term unemployment, and thirdly, we provide evidence which suggests that the speed of adjustment in nominal wages depends on unemployment being above or below NAIRU.

Abstract:
Recent developments in macroeconomics, and in economic policy in general, have produced a "new consensus" economy-wide model, in which the stock of money does not play any causal role, but operates as a mere residual in the economic process. The absence of the stock of money in many current debates over monetary policy has prompted the deputy governor of the Bank of England to note the irony of the situation: As central banks became more and more concerned with price stability, less and less attention is paid to money. Indeed in several countries, the decline of interest in money appears to have coincided with low inflation. In turn, a number of contributions have attempted, wittingly or unwittingly, to "reinstate" a more substantial role for money in this "new" macroeconomics. In this paper we argue that these attempts to "reinstate" money in current macroeconomic thinking entail two important problems. First, they contradict an important theoretical property of the new "consensus" macroeconomic model, namely, that of dichotomy between the monetary and the real sector. Second, some of these attempts either fail in terms of their objective or merely reintroduce the problem rather than solve it. We conclude that if money is to be given a causal role in the "new" consensus model, more substantial research is needed.

"new" macroeconomics, stock of money, monetary economics

Abstract:
The primary objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime-switching modeling framework to study the credibility of monetary policy in five member countries of the European Monetary System (EMS) during the period 1979 to 1998. The five countries examined for this purpose are Austria, Belgium, France, Italy, and the Netherlands. The major innovation of this paper is the use of a Markov regime-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. The output-gap variability and the inflation variability variables are incorporated into the determination of the monetary policy preferences of individual member countries of the EMS. Empirical evidence is provided to show that although all the countries in our sample followed a credible monetary policy regarding price stability, they had different preferences regarding the trade-off between the stabilization of output-gap variability and inflation variability.

Credibility, EMS, Markov Regime-Switching Models

Abstract:
The consumer has been on a tightrope since the bursting of the "new economy" bubble, as losses in equity markets have been partly offset by gains in real estate and fiscal support and mortgage refinancing have partly offset increased consumer cautiousness. The consumer will remain on a tightrope in the near future, but if the economy were to stumble, the fragile consumer might contribute to turning the downturn into a deep and protracted recession. There are two risks to the continuation of consumer resilience. The first arises from the fact that this has been a jobless recovery. The second arises from a growing personal sector imbalance that is fueled by the growing property bubble. Hence, the short-term outlook remains uncertain, but the long-term one is bleak.

consumption, jobless recovery, personal sector imbalances, property bubble

Abstract:
The dominant view relating to unemployment and inflation is that inflation will be constant at a level of unemployment (the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, NAIRU) determined on the supply side of the economy (and in the labor market in particular). Further, the economy will tend to converge to (or oscillate around) that level of unemployment. Moreover, demand variables or economic policy changes are thought to have no influence whatsoever on NAIRU. An alternative perspective on inflation would indicate that there would be no automatic forces leading to a level of aggregate demand consistent with constant inflation. Inflationary pressures would arise from, inter alia, a role of conflict over income shares, and from cost elements, with the price of raw materials, especially oil, being the most important. Insofar as there are supply-side factors impinging on the inflationary process, these would arise from the level of productive capacity (relative to aggregate demand) and from conflict over income shares. This paper focuses on the arguments and the evidence that supply-side constraints should be viewed as arising from capacity constraints, rather than from the operation of the labor market.

capacity, conflict, aggregate demand, inflation

Abstract:
This paper is concerned with the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM) in the case of an open economy. It outlines and explains briefly the main elements of and way of thinking about the macroeconomy from the standpoint of both its theoretical and its policy dimensions. There are a few problems with this particular theoretical framework. We focus here on two important aspects closely related to NCM: the absence of banks and monetary aggregates from this theoretical framework, and the way the notion of the “equilibrium real rate of interest” is utilized by the same framework. The analysis is critical of NCM from a Keynesian perspective.

New Consensus Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Banks, Monetary Aggregates, Equilibrium Real Rate of Interest

Abstract:
The recent literature provides evidence for a positive relationship between financial deepening and growth but is quite silent on the exact channels through which it materializes. Theory suggests that production efficiency should be one of those main channels. We attempt to capture this channel by modeling productive efficiency explicitly and constructing efficiency frontiers using data envelopment analysis. We apply this procedure to consider whether financial development creates productive efficiency gains in the industrialized OECD countries. Our results show that financial development contributes to productive efficiency. However, this effect weakens over time during the period under scrutiny. Moreover, we find that the effects of financial deepening on productive efficiency depend on the degree of efficiency already achieved.

Abstract:
The Markov regime-switching modelling framework, with time-varying transition probabilities, is utilized to study the credibility of monetary policy in five member countries of the European Monetary System during the period 1979-98 (Austria, Belgium, France, Italy and the Netherlands). The output-gap variability and the inflation variability variables are incorporated in the determination of the monetary policy preferences of the five countries. Empirical evidence is provided to show that although all the countries in our sample followed a credible monetary policy regarding price stability, they had different preferences regarding the trade-off between the stabilization of output-gap variability and inflation variability.

Abstract:
This paper focuses on an alternative perspective on inflation to that of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). It indicates that there are no automatic forces leading to a level of aggregate demand consistent with constant inflation. Inflationary pressures arise from conflict over income shares, and from cost elements, with the price of raw materials, especially oil, being the most important. There are supply-side factors impinging on the inflationary process, which arise from the level of productive capacity (relative to aggregate demand). The supply-side constraints are viewed as arising from capacity constraints, rather than from the operation of the labour market.

Capacity, Conflict, Aggregate demand, Inflation

Abstract:
We utilize a stochastic volatility model to analyse the possible effects of inflation targeting on the trade-off between output gap variability and inflation variability. We find that the adoption of inflation targets (in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the UK, Sweden and Finland) might result in a more favourable monetary policy trade-off (except in Australia and Finland). This conclusion is reached by comparing, first, the economic performance of targeting countries in the 1980s and the 1990s; and second, the economic performance in the 1990s of targeting and non-targeting countries (the USA, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, France and the Netherlands). We focus on two possible explanations for the performance of the inflation-targeting regime: The relatively high degree of monetary policy transparency, and the presence of a flexible institutional framework.

Abstract:
(no abstract)

Abstract:
The focus of this paper is to investigate the importance of the capital stock in the determination of wages and unemployment in a range of EMU countries and to compare the results across countries. A time-series analysis is conducted in the case of nine euro area countries, which were selected solely on the basis of data availability and consistency: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain. The paper begins with a short review of the literature on capital stock and unemployment, before it deals with the theoretical model. This is followed by estimation and testing of the theoretical model put forward, using both time-series and panel data. The results are supportive of the main hypothesis of the paper: capital stock is an important determinant of unemployment and wages in the countries considered for the purposes of the paper.

Abstract:
This paper deals with what is referred to in the literature as the 'Inflation Targeting Lite' (ITL) countries. These are a category of emerging countries, whose main characteristics are that they are least developed and small economies that pursue IT. They use inflation targeting to define their monetary policy framework, but for a number of reasons they are not in a position to put top priority to IT in relation to other objectives. This paper deals with a set of ITL countries for which consistent data could be gathered, and for which a date for setting inflation targeting could be discerned. The object of the paper is to study the impact of IT on actual inflation and inflation expectations. We utilise intervention analysis to time series on inflation for a number of ITL countries, which have actually implemented IT. In doing so our main concern is to assess whether, due to the IT intervention, there has been a significant change in the trend corresponding to these series and the extent to which inflation rates have actually been 'locked-in' at low levels after the implementation of IT. Two major results emerge. The first is that ITL countries have been successful in 'locking-in' inflation rates. The second is that non-IT countries have also been successful in terms of the 'lock-in' effect. Our overall conclusion, then, is that other factors in addition to IT underpin the apparent success of the control of inflation.

Abstract:
We investigate the possibility of further channels through which financial liberalization policies might affect poverty and discuss how various factors have produced varying outcomes in different countries. The growth channel is the only one widely accepted in the literature. We suggest that three further channels should be added to the list: the financial crises channel, the access to credit and financial services channel and the income share of labour channel. We discuss how these channels operate differently in different countries. As far as we know, no attempt has been made previously in the literature to go beyond the growth channel.

financial liberalization, poverty, channels of influence

Abstract:
This paper demonstrates that fiscal policy is an effective and essential instrument of stabilisation macroeconomic policy. This is particularly so if it is co-ordinated with monetary policy, especially in the current worldwide economic situation.

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to examine inflation targeting (IT) in emerging countries by concentrating essentially on the case of Brazil. The IT monetary policy regime has been adopted by a significant number of countries. While the focus of this paper is on Brazil, which began inflation targeting in 1999, we also examine the experience of other countries, both for comparative purposes and for evidence of the extent of this "new" economic policy's success. In addition, we compare the experience of Brazil with that of non-IT countries, and ask the question of whether adopting IT makes a difference in the fight against inflation.

Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting, Brazil, Emerging Economies

Abstract:
Monetary policy has become firmly based on the use of interest rate as the key policy instrument, and in a one instrument-one target framework. The approach to monetary policy is closely associated with the new consensus in macroeconomics (NCM). This paper undertakes a critical appraisal of the role of monetary policy in the context of the NCM. After setting out the main features of the NCM, there is critical discussion of the role of monetary policy and the NCM framework. The discussion covers the nature of the loss function, the role of the ‘natural rate of interest’ and the Phillips' curve. This is followed by a critical evaluation of the IS curve in the NCM and the classical dichotomy. The paper finishes by asking whether interest rates do have the effects claimed for them.

monetary policy, interest rates, new consensus in macroeconomics

Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to deal with the empirical aspects of the new monetary policy framework, known as Inflation Targeting. Applying Intervention Analysis to multivariate Structural Time Series models, which avoids certain biases encountered in the use of conventional regression estimators, new empirical evidence is produced in the case of a number of OECD countries. These results demonstrate that although Inflation Targeting has gone hand-in-hand with low inflation, the strategy was introduced well after inflation had begun its downward trend. But, then, Inflation Targeting locks in low inflation rates. The evidence produced in this paper suggests that non-Inflation Targeting central banks have also been successful on this score.

Abstract:
The authors argue that the institutional dimension of the Bank of England monetary policy and the role the UK HM Treasury assumes in this framework are both firmly based on the New Consensus in Macroeconomics (NCM). This is also the theoretical framework upon which the inflation targeting element of monetary policy is firmly based. This paper discusses these aspects of UK monetary policy, and then assesses the policy that has been pursued since 1997 (with some reference made to the period between 1992 and 1997 when a version of the framework was introduced). The strategy has been successful in terms of keeping UK inflation rates within the targets set by HM Treasury. However, a number of problematic issues are highlighted and discussed.

Monetary policy, Tight monetary policy, Exchange rate policy, Price stability, Intervention analysis, MPC membership

Abstract:
The anemic U.S. economic recovery and the threat of a double-dip recession stem from the weakness of investment, due to excess capacity created in the euphoric years of the "new economy" bubble. The current imbalances in the corporate sector (i.e., the all-time-high indebtedness in the face of falling asset prices) are preventing investment from picking up and are laying the foundation for a new, long-lasting expansion. Tax reductions may create a cyclical upturn in the short run and may promote the anemic recovery, but such stimulus to demand is unsustainable in the long run. The root of the problem is the imbalance in the corporate sector, which will take time for correction.

sustainable recovery, investment, imbalance, corporate sector

Abstract:
This paper proposes an alternative stability and growth pact to the one which accompanied the introduction of the euro in January 1999. The latter is part of the third stage of economic and monetary union and, will govern the economic policies of the member countries which have joined the single currency and strongly constrain the policies of those who do not join. The alternative proposed in this paper is a Full Employment, Growth and Stability Pact and would have a number of features, the most important of which is the creation of new institutional arrangements, including the creation of an investment bank.

stability pact, European central bank, investment bank, monetary policy, fiscal policy

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to examine the proposition that capital formation is an important variable in the determination of unemployment and wages in Germany and the U.K. Underlying this proposition is the notion that capital accumulation plays a central role in the adjustment process of an economy in response to shocks. Over the period under investigation, 1968q1-1995q4, Germany and the U.K. experienced big shocks which have affected their labor and product markets. The dramatic rise in unemployment in the 1980s was attributed to adverse supply shocks. However, after the reversal of the shocks, unemployment persisted which some economists explained by resorting to inflexibilities in the labor markets. It is worth noting that although the U.K. has increased labor market flexibility over the last fifteen years or so, it is only recently that success can be claimed in terms of reducing unemployment. The German government at the same time has started to reduce worker protection and increase flexibility of working hours. More recently, attention has been diverted from cures for inflexible labor markets to the effect of changes in interest rates and capital shortage on the unemployment rate that is consistent with non-accelerating inflation and wages (NAIRU). Broadly speaking, there are two main arguments on this issue: one that concentrates on the cost of capital and the other which focuses on the quantity of physical capital. The first is concerned with the determination of what might loosely be called the "long-run" NAIRU in the sense that capital grows at its equilibrium rate and that the labor market is also in equilibrium. The second is concerned with the determination of unemployment and wages during the adjustment process in the capital goods market, making the assumption that the adjustment process may take a long period of time. This concept of NAIRU might loosely be called "medium-term" NAIRU. This paper is mainly concerned with the determination of unemployment and wages during the adjustment process in the capital goods market. The focus is on the determination and comparison of wages and unemployment in both countries on the basis of the "medium-run" NAIRU concept. We argue that adverse demand shocks affect employment and investment. When shocks reverse, unemployment may not fall to previous levels, due to insufficient capital. Our empirical results show that the unemployment rate has risen in the last twenty years or so in both countries due to insufficient investment.