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Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to compare baby boomer retirees with previous generations on their overall level, distribution, and composition of family income and on the adequacy of this income in maintaining their economic well-being in retirement. To do this analysis we use projections of retirement income from the Social Security Administration's Modeling of Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system.

In absolute terms, measured by real per capita income and poverty rates, we find that baby boomers will be better off than current retirees. In relative terms, however, many baby boomers will be worse off than current retirees. First, MINT predicts changes over time in the relative ranking of important subgroups within specific cohorts, with some subgroups experiencing substantial gains in real per capita income and other subgroups experiencing little gain over time. Second, while both pre- and post-retirement incomes are rising, post-retirement incomes do not rise as much as pre-retirement incomes. Consequently, baby boomers are less likely than current retirees to have enough post-retirement income to maintain their preretirement living standards. These findings hold up to various definitions of family income and replacement rates.

Abstract:
The long-term shift in coverage from defined benefit (DB) pensions to defined contribution (DC) plans may accelerate rapidly as more large companies freeze their DB pensions and replace them with new or enhanced DC plans. This paper uses the Model of Income in the Near Term to simulate the impact of an accelerated transition from DB to DC pensions on the distribution of retirement income among boomers. A scenario in which employers freeze all remaining private sector DB plans and a third of all state and local plans over the next five years will on balance produce more losers than winners among boomers and reduce their average incomes at age 67. Income changes will be largest among higher-income boomers, who have the highest DB coverage rates and projected pension incomes. Furthermore, the numbers of winners and losers and net income changes are much greater for the last wave of boomers (born between 1961 and 1965) than for earlier boomers. Younger boomers are most likely to have their DB pensions frozen with relatively little job tenure and to lose their high accrual years for DB pension wealth, but also to have relatively more years to accumulate DC pension wealth before retirement.

Abstract:
Changes in American family and work patterns over the past decades have prompted various policy proposals for changing the structure of Social Security benefits. In this article, we use the Social Security Administration’s Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) microsimulation model to project how Social Security benefit amounts would change in response to incorporating earnings sharing into benefit calculations for the population aged 62 or older in 2030 under three hypothetical policy scenarios. The earnings sharing scenarios modeled in the article would reduce benefits for the majority of individuals, although there are important differences among married, divorced, and widowed individuals. Some groups of men and women would experience increases in Social Security benefits, while some would receive reduced benefits in comparison to current law, particularly widowed individuals. Allowing widows to inherit the earnings records of their deceased husbands would improve their outcomes.

microsimulation, earnings sharing, Social Security, retirement, MINT

Abstract:
Dramatic changes in life expectancy, women's roles in the labor market, the structure of the workforce, and pension systems have occurred in recent decades, all influencing the well-being of future retirees. This article uses different sources of United States data to focus on the retirement resources of women aged 55-64. By comparing the resources for this age group in 2004 to their counterparts in 1994 and 1984, this analysis provides some indication of changes in the retirement preparedness of three different cohorts of women. Our findings indicate that notable changes have occurred with women's pathways into retirement that are due to increased education and lifetime work experience. As a consequence, there are marked differences in potential retirement outcomes. We find that women aged 55-64 today are better prepared in several respects than their counterparts of the same age 10 or 20 years ago.

women, aged, retirement

Abstract:
This article uses a microsimulation model to estimate how freezing all remaining private-sector and one-third of all public-sector defined benefit (DB) pension plans over the next 5 years would affect retirement incomes of baby boomers. If frozen plans were supplemented with new or enhanced defined contribution (DC) retirement plans, there would be more losers than winners, and average family incomes would decline. The decline in family income would be much larger for last-wave boomers born from 1961 through 1965 than for those born from 1946 through 1950, because younger boomers are more likely to have their DB pensions frozen with relatively little job tenure. Higher DC accruals would raise retirement incomes for some families by more than their lost DB benefits. But about 26 percent of last-wave boomers would have lower family incomes at age 67, and only 11 percent would see their income increase.

microsimulation, well-being of boomers, defined benefit pensions, retirement, MINT

Abstract:
The approaching retirement of the baby boom generation has attracted both research and public policy attention. Many changes occurred during the second half of the twentieth century, changes likely to affect the retirement economic security of recent cohorts. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we compare pension participation and nonpension net worth of two cohorts of near retirees, those born in1933 through 1939 who were ages 55-61 in 1994, and the more recent cohort consisting of people of the same age in 2004 who were born in 1943 through 1949. We find that the recent cohort of near-retirees has a higher lifetime pension participation rate compared to the earlier cohort, but the gap in the participation rate between the highest and the lowest wealth quintiles has widened. Pension holders have much higher levels of total net worth than nonpension holders, and the degree of wealth inequality has increased over time.

Pension participation, wealth holdings, cohorts

Abstract:
Large-scale changes in American family structures over the past decades have important implications for the retirement experiences of women. In this study, the authors use a restricted-use file of the Marital History Module of the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation to investigate changes in the marital histories of women aged 40 to 69 years between 1990 and 2004, with a focus on outcomes relevant for Social Security spouse and widow benefit eligibility. Multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses show significant changes in women's marital patterns since 1990, with more substantial shifts occurring among recent cohorts. Due to downward trends in marriage, the authors find a modest decline in Social Security spouse and widow benefit eligibility in 2004, particularly among Black women born toward the end of the baby boom generation.

Social Security, women, marriage, race