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Abstract:
In this paper, we assess whether recent economic developments in Russia are symptomatic of Dutch Disease. We first provide a brief review of the literature on Dutch Disease and the natural resource curse. We then discuss the symptoms of Dutch Disease, which include (1) real exchange rate appreciation; (2) slower manufacturing growth; (3) faster service sector growth; and (4) higher overall wages. We test these predictions for Russia while carefully controlling for other factors that could have led to similar symptoms. We conclude that, while Russia has all of the symptoms, the diagnosis of Dutch Disease remains to be confirmed.

Dutch disease, real exchange rate, resource curse, Russia, oil, transition

Abstract:
In this paper, we assess whether recent economic developments in Russia are symptomatic of Dutch Disease. We first provide a brief review of the literature on Dutch Disease and the natural resource curse. We then discuss the symptoms of Dutch Disease, which include (1) real exchange rate appreciation; (2) slower manufacturing growth; (3) faster service sector growth; and (4) higher overall wages. We test these predictions for Russia while carefully controlling for other factors that could have led to similar symptoms. We conclude that, while Russia has all of the symptoms, the diagnosis of Dutch Disease remains to be confirmed.

Abstract:
The study documents evidence of a "quality effect" of financial liberalization on allocative efficiency, which is measured by the dispersion in Tobin`s Q across firms. Based on a simple model, the authors predict that financial liberalization, by equalizing access to credit, reduces the variation in expected marginal returns. They test this prediction using a new financial liberalization index and firm-level data for five emerging markets: India, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. They find strong evidence that financial liberalization, rather than financial deepening, improves allocative efficiency.

Tobin`s Q, financial liberalization, investment, allocative efficiency, inequality

Abstract:
The study documents evidence of a quality effect of financial liberalization on allocative efficiency, which is measured by the dispersion in Tobin's Q across firms. Based on a simple model, the authors predict that financial liberalization, by equalizing access to credit, reduces the variation in expected marginal returns. They test this prediction using a new financial liberalization index and firm-level data for five emerging markets: India, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. They find strong evidence that financial liberalization, rather than financial deepening, improves allocative efficiency.

Tobin's Q, financial liberalization, investment, allocative efficiency, inequality

Abstract:
Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

Exchange rate regimes economic performance

Abstract:
Money demand in dollarized economies often appears to be highly unstable, making it difficult to forecast and control inflation. In this paper, we show that a stable money demand function for Russia can be found for "effective broad money," which includes an estimate of foreign cash holdings. Moreover, we find that an excess supply of effective broad money is inflationary, while other excess money measures are not, and that effective broad money growth has the strongest and most persistent effect on short-run inflation.

money demand, inflation, dollarization, currency substitution, Russia

Abstract:
Money demand in dollarized economies often appears to be highly unstable, making it difficult to forecast and control inflation. In this paper, we show that a stable money demand function for Russia can be found for "effective broad money," which includes an estimate of foreign cash holdings. Moreover, we find that an excess supply of effective broad money is inflationary, while other excess money measures are not, and that effective broad money growth has the strongest and most persistent effect on short-run inflation.

Abstract:
This paper estimates the output gap in Russia using a utilization-adjusted production function approach, which we argue is preferable to traditional output gap methods. The approach amounts to (1) using available surveys to estimate the 'natural rates' of capacity and labor utilization above which inflation begins to accelerate; (2) estimating a production function with utilization-adjusted capital and labor inputs; and (3) defining potential output as the level of output obtained when both capital and labor are at their estimated natural rates. The results suggest that the output gap in Russia was negative between 1999 and 2003, but may have recently become positive, thus contributing to inflationary pressures.

Output gap, capacity utilization, natural rate, Phillips curve, Russia

Abstract:
This paper provides an overview of diamond mining in sub-Saharan African countries, and explores the reasons for substantial differences in their tax rates and fiscal revenues from the sector, which mainly arise from differences in the incentives for smuggling. In a theoretical model, we show that optimal diamond tax rates increase with the degree of competition among diamond buyers, as well as with the corporate share of diamond production, which is confirmed by the data. We then discuss policies to increase revenue, including by enhancing mining productivity, stimulating the exploration of new areas, reducing barriers to entry, and attracting investment into value-adding downstream operations.

diamond mining, nonrenewable resource, optimal taxation, tax evasion

Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the IMF`s role in maintaining the access of emerging market economies to international capital markets. We find evidence that both macroeconomic aggregates and capital flows improve following the adoption of an IMF-supported program, although they may initially deteriorate somewhat. Consistent with theoretical predictions and earlier empirical findings, we find that IMF-supported programs are most successful in improving capital flows to countries with bad, but not very bad fundamentals. In such countries, IMF-supported programs are also associated with improvements in the fundamentals themselves.

International Monetary Fund, capital flows, catalytic finance, emerging markets

Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the IMF's role in maintaining the access of emerging market economies to international capital markets. We find evidence that both macroeconomic aggregates and capital flows improve following the adoption of an IMF program, although they may initially deteriorate somewhat. Consistent with theoretical predictions and earlier empirical findings, we find that IMF programs are most successful in improving capital flows to countries with bad, but not very bad fundamentals. In such countries, IMF programs are also associated with improvements in the fundamentals themselves.

Abstract:
Dollarization in Russia increased rapidly during the early 1990s, but failed to come down in the second half of the 1990s in spite of exchange rate stabilization. To explain this dollarization hysteresis, this paper develops a model in which network externalities in the demand for currency can generate multiple stable steady states for the dollarization ratio. The model is estimated using a new source of data on dollar currency holdings in Russia. On the basis of these estimates, which confirm the existence of network externalities, the paper discusses several policies that could result in a permanent decrease in dollarization.

dollarization, currency substitution, ratchet effect, network externalities, Russia

Abstract:
Conditional on choosing a pegged exchange rate regime, what determines the currency to which countries peg or anchor their exchange rate? This paper aims to answer this question using a panel multinomial logit framework, covering more than 100 countries for the period 1980-1998. We find that trade network externalities are a key determinant of anchor currencies in the international monetary system. Other factors found to be related to anchor currency choice include the symmetry of output co-movement, the currency denomination of debt, and legal or colonial origins.

exchange rate regime, anchor, network externalities, optimal currency area, international currency, de facto

Abstract:
What determines the currency to which countries peg or anchor their exchange rate? Data for over 100 countries between 1980 and 1998 reveal that trade network externalities are a key determinant. This implies that anchor currency choice may well be suboptimal in that certain currencies, e.g., the U.S. dollar, could be oversubscribed. It also implies that changes in anchor choices by a small number of countries can have large and rapid effects on the international monetary system. Other factors found to be related to anchor choice include the symmetry of output shocks and the currency denomination of liabilities.

Working Paper

Abstract:
This paper evaluates competitiveness in Slovakia and estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for the koruna. Slovak wages and prices are found to have been relatively low even when adjusted for differences in relative income and productivity, suggesting an undervalued real exchange rate. However, recent rapid nominal appreciation has reduced most or all of this undervaluation and has brought the real exchange rate near or above equilibrium. The productivity-driven equilibrium real appreciation rate during 2005-09 is estimated at close to 3 percent per year but can be lower with the help of fiscal consolidation.

Real exchange rate, competitiveness, Balassa-Samuelson, Slovakia

Abstract:
This papers estimates the equilibrium exchange rate for Armenia using three different approaches: the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, and the external sustainability (ES) approach. All three approaches suggest that the dram was overvalued by about 20–30 percent prior to the devaluation of the dram in March 2009.

Exchange rate appreciation, Armenia, Armenian dram, Purchasing power parity, Fiscal sustainability, Economic models