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Abstract:
This paper traces the history and the institutional background to the establishment of the Economic and Monetary Union in the EU. It argues that since the establishment of the European Economic Community (EEC) in the late 1950s, attempts at monetary integration and ultimately monetary union, have tended to assume importance only as a result of financial crisis and becoming a vague objective as soon as the crisis recedes. In recent years, however, this search has assumed greater urgency for a number of reasons explored in the paper. Economic Union, on the other hand, has followed a smoother transition. Economic integration was used after the Second World War to raise political goals, chiefly to anchor West Germany within Western European alliance. Since that time the economies of member states have slowly integrated. The economic environmment which existed in the 1950s is a far cry from the integrated European Community of today. In the 1950s, European currencies were not convertible and domestic trade was highly protected. Intra-European trade was based on bilateral clearing arrangements institutionalised by the European Payments Union. Today EU currencies are fully convertible. Capital controls, intra-EU tariffs and quotas have been eliminated, and the single market has been completed.

The path which monetary union followed has gone through a number of stages. The Werner Plan of the early 1970s which set the goal of economic and monetary union by the end of the decade was only partially implemented. Its failure can be put down to unfavourable international economic conditions and poor institutional structures. In the early 1980s, a new monetary initiative was launched, the European Monetary System (EMS) which was condemned to failure by many. However, it struggled on through its initial phase until it was replaced by the current EURO arrangements. Each process should be interpreted as a building block of monetary union which ultimately culminated in the Maastricht Treaty that laid out a precise path and timetable for economic and monetary union.

Abstract:
Within the framework of macroeconomic policy and theory over the past twenty years or so, a major shift has occurred regarding the relative importance given of monetary policy versus fiscal policy. The former has gained considerably in stature, while the latter is rarely mentioned. Further, monetary policy no longer focuses on attempts to control some monetary aggregate, as it did in the first half of the 1980s, but instead focuses on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift toward the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the emphasis of monetary policy, questions its effectiveness, and explores the role of fiscal policy. We examine these subjects from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that its analysis is rather limited. When the analysis is broadened to embrace empirical issues and evidence, the conclusion clearly emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. We argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy, particularly under current economic conditions.

monetary policy, fiscal policy, effectiveness

Abstract:
This paper explores some of the links between macroeconomic policy and industrial strategy. The perspective of the present paper is to emphasize the role of the output and investment activities of enterprises rather than the general focus on the labor market in the determination of economic performance. We have explored this aspect in some detail in connection with the inflation barrier and argue that such a barrier should be viewed in terms of a lack of capacity. We briefly review the balance of trade constraint on growth and employment. The overall implications of those two sets of analyses is that macroeconomic performance would be enhanced by appropriate industrial strategy and that inappropriate macroeconomic policies will damage industrial performance. Policies designed to restrain inflation by lowering the level of aggregate demand will tend to depress investment and harm capacity. Improved industrial performance requires a climate conducive to investment and research and development, which in turn depends on, inter alia, high and stable levels of aggregate demand.

Abstract:
Current monetary policy involves the manipulation of the Central Bank interest rate (the repo rate), with the specific objective of achieving the goal(s) of monetary policy. The latter is normally the inflation rate, although in a number of instances this may include the level of economic activity (the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy is a good example of this category). This raises two issues. The first is the theoretical underpinnings of this mode of monetary policy. The second is the channels of monetary policy or, more concretely, the channels through which changes in the rate of interest may affect the ultimate goal(s) of policy. Both aspects are investigated in this paper. Furthermore, we suggest that it is imperative to consider the empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy. We summarise results drawn from the eurozone, the U.S. and the UK and suggest that these empirical results point to a relatively weak effect of interest rate changes on inflation. We also suggest, on the basis of the evidence adduced in the paper, that monetary policy can have long-run effects on real magnitudes. This particular result does not fit comfortably with the theoretical basis of current thinking on monetary policy.

Monetary Policy, Central Banks, Euro

Abstract:
The euro was adopted as legal tender, albeit in a virtual form, by 11 countries of the European Union on January 1, 1999, with the intention that notes and coins denominated in euros would be introduced and the national currencies would be phased out during the first six months of that year and that the euro would be fully operational by 2002. This paper first reviews the current position of the EMU member states in relation to the convergence criteria under the Maastricht Treaty and finds that there must have been a considerable degree of "fudge" for the criteria to have been met. The paper next looks at the central role of aggregate demand in the EMU and at concerns about unemployment. It next examines the prospects of the current EMU arrangements, concluding that they are highly deflationary. To overcome the deflationary bias of current proposals and as a means to alleviate the serious unemployment problem, the authors recommend that the European Central Bank be enhanced by (1) the development of a new institution, the European Union Development Bank, and (2) a modification of the Stability and Growth Pact.

Abstract:
It is often asserted that, whatever role Keynesian policies may have played in underpinning the long post-war boom, those policies are no longer relevant. In contrast this paper seeks to reassert the need for Keynesian policies in order to secure full employment. In doing so, as will be seen below, we interpret Keynesian economic policies in a rather broad sense and specifically wish to distance ourselves from treating Keynesian policies as virtually synonymous with fiscal demand management designed to fine tune the economy. We also recognize that there are many constraints on the pursuit of full employment, arising from the demand and the supply sides, and that the key objective of Keynesian policies is to alleviate those constraints in the pursuit of full employment.

This paper puts forward an approach to economic policy which could be described as post Keynesian. Since the term Keynesian policies has been variously defined, we indicate in section II what we mean by the term, which is broader than most usages. The case for Keynesian policies arises out of, and can only be appreciated by reference to, a conception underlying this paper in section III. This is further elaborated in section IV by a consideration of the constraints on the achievement on full employment in a market economy. This leads into section V in which we outline the nature of Keynesian policies which relate to both the demand side and the supply side of the economy. The final main section, section VI, considers some of the constraints on the implementation of the type of Keynesian policies which we are advocating.

Abstract:
It has been argued that the eurozone will face considerable economic difficulties. These will take a number of forms, two of which could qualify as "crises." First, the euro was launched at a time when unemployment levels were high (10 percent of the workforce) and disparities in the experience of unemployment and standards of living were particularly severe. These high levels of unemployment are likely to continue in the foreseeable future, and the policy arrangements that surround the operation of the euro, notably the objectives of the European Central Bank and the workings of the Stability and Growth Pact, will have a deflationary bias. These levels of and disparities in unemployment could be termed a crisis. Second, the introduction of the euro and the associated institutional setting could well serve to exacerbate tendencies toward financial crisis, including the volatility and subsequent collapse of asset prices and runs on the banking system. Some additional forces of instability may arise from the current trade imbalances and the relationship between the dollar and the euro as two major global currencies. Further, the operating arrangements of the European System of Central Banks can be seen as inadequate to cope with such financial crises.

Abstract:
Discussion of the distribution of income is noticeable by its absence from most mainstream macroeconomic analysis, though it does, of course, make an appearance in post Keynesian economics, particularly as derived from the work of Kalecki. This lack of attention to the distribution of income could to some degree be explained by the focus of macroeconomics on aggregates, combined with the belief that the disaggregation of income into, for example, wages and profits was uninteresting. This argument was never a strong one and, since macroeconomic analysis following Keynes, emphasized the role of investment as a component of aggregate demand, and two key attributes of investment expenditure can readily be seen to be the role of profits (as a source of finance and as an indicator of future profitability) and its links between the present and an uncertain future. The trend over the past 15 or so years to explore the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics, and the general reduction of macroeconomics to a summation of microeconomics have severely weakened the argument but has not lead to any significant rise in interest in distribution of income.

In this paper, we are concerned with three sets of arguments concerning the relationship between macroeconomics and the distribution of income. In the first main section we argue that in so far as the NAIRU (non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) is seen as a barrier to the achievement of full employment, it should be viewed as one arising from conflicts over the distribution of income. In the second main section, we discuss the question of the relationship between the distribution of income and the level of aggregate demand. Specifically, we briefly examine how changes in the distribution of income have impacted on the levels of economic activity and of unemployment over the past 15 years or so. In the third section we offer some remarks on monetary policy and the distribution of income.

Abstract:
It has almost become the conventional wisdom that there should be rules governing the size of the budget deficits, without regard for the impact of such deficits on the macro economy. This is reflected in the push for a balanced budget in the United States and the 3 percent deficit to GDP ratio convergence criteria in the Maastricht Treaty (and designed for observance by countries signing up for the single currency). The purpose of this paper is not to present further arguments against deficit reduction for its own sake or against the balanced budget for that has been done by others. The purpose is rather to consider the arguments which have been done by others. The purpose is rather to consider the arguments which have been advanced in favor of a budget deficit limited by the capital expenditure budget separate from the current expenditure.

The structure of this paper is as follows. We first consider some possible rationales for the so-called golden rule' that current expenditure by government should be covered by taxation and capital expenditure may be financed by borrowing. The next section points out the ways in which the government sector should be treated differently from the private sector in matters of deficits and their financing. The application of any golden rule' is dependent on how capital expenditure is conceptualized and measured, and that is discussed in section 4. The next section suggests ways in which the golden rule' may lead to some problems. Section 6 provides some further discussion on the debt stability condition, and section 7 is a brief conclusion.

The central point which is at the heart of this paper is the current expenditure and capital expenditure by government have the essentially similarities that they use current resources, have to be financed but do not yield a direct monetary revenue for the government.

Abstract:
Since the early 1990s, a number of countries have adopted Inflation Targeting (IT) in an effort to reduce inflation. Most literature has praised IT as a superior framework of monetary policy. We suggest that IT is a major policy prescription closely associated with the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM). Focusing mainly on the IT aspects of the NCM, we address and assess the theoretical foundations of IT, and then assess the empirical work on IT, distinguishing between work that utilizes structural macroeconomic models and work based on single-equation techniques. The IT theoretical framework and the available empirical evidence do not appear to support the views of IT proponents.

Abstract:
In this paper we seek first to set out the economic analysis that underpins the ideas of what has been termed the "third way." The explicit mention of the "third way" is much diminished since the early days of the Blair government in the UK and the Schroeder government in Germany. We argue that the ideas associated with the "third way" continue to influence these governments and, more broadly, other governments and the European Union, and that these ideas are firmly embedded in New Keynesian economics. Our paper then focuses on some particular aspects of New Keynesian economics and its emphasis on the role of monetary policy and the downgrading of fiscal policy. There has emerged a so-called "new consensus" on macroeconomic policy (specifically, monetary policy), which we regard as an outgrowth of New Keynesian economics. We review this "new consensus" and argue that the empirical evidence on the operation of monetary policy reveals that such a policy is rather impotent. Insofar as it does have an effect, it operates to influence the level of investment, which in turn affects the future level and distribution of productive capacity. Thus, contrary to the prevailing view, monetary policy is not an effective way to control inflation, but it can have effects on the real side of the economy. The lack of attention to fiscal policy and the overemphasis on monetary policy leaves the European Union and its member countries without the means to tackle any serious recession or upsurge of inflation.

New Consensus, New Keynesianism, Thirdway

Abstract:
This paper proposes an alternative stability and growth pact among European Union (EU) governments that would underpin the introduction of a single currency and a "single market" within the EU. The alternative pact embraces a number of new aspects of integration within the EU that are based on a different monetary analysis (different from that of "new monetarism"), new objectives for economic policy (such as employment and growth), and new institutions to reduce various kinds of disparities across the EU. The paper begins by critically examining the Stability and Growth Pact, which accompanied the introduction of the euro in January 1999, but which has not received as much attention in the policy debates on the euro as some other aspects of it. This is followed by a discussion of the institutional underpinnings of the euro, with the argument made that the institutional arrangements have a number of weaknesses. An alternative pact governing monetary and fiscal policy, which contains the promotion of the objective of full employment and that requires the creation of new institutions, is proposed.

Abstract:
This paper examines the causes of the general decline in the value of the euro by assessing the various explanations proffered in existing literature, then offering a more satisfactory explanation. The argument prevalent in the literature - that the decline in value of the euro is due to a U.S. strength - rather than to any inherent difficulties with its imposition - is viewed as somewhat undeveloped. We suggest that U.S. strength is an important but only partial factor in euro decline; the other side of U.S. strength is eurozone weakness. We review the (poor) performance of the ECB and assess the level of macroeconomic convergence of eurozone countries. We conclude that a combination of eurozone weakness, endogenous to the inception of the euro, and U.S. strength is the most plausible explanation for the euro's decline in value. We find that although the future value of the euro is uncertain, the prospects for the eurozone will remain bleak as long as the current institutions underpinning the euro, with their inherent tendencies to promote deflation, are in place.

Abstract:
The paper begins by a brief review of the main ideas associated with Hyman Minsky and their implications for economic policy and the achievement of full employment. There is a focus on the financial instability hypothesis, the role of the central bank as lender of last resort and the requirements for regulation of the financial system. The implications of these ideas for economic policy are then explored at the level of the European Union and the global economy. It is argued that the Minsky analysis would suggest that at the level of the nation state, the general drift of economic policy and changes in institutional arrangements have made the prospects for full employment bleak. For the European Union, the institutions which are emerging in the context of EMU and the euro are considered in terms of their impacts on the level of economic activity. At the global economy level, the paper considers the need for international institutions to regulate the global financial system.

Abstract:
This paper reconsiders the case for the use of fiscal policy based on a "functional finance" approach that advocates the use of fiscal policy to secure high levels of demand in the context of private aggregate demand, which would otherwise be too low. This "functional finance" view means that any budget deficit should be seen as a response to the perceived excess of private savings over investment at the desired level of economic activity. The paper outlines the "functional finance" approach and its relationship with fiscal policy. It then considers the three lines of argument that have been advanced against fiscal policy on the grounds of "crowding out." These lines are based on the response of interest rates, the supply-side equilibrium, and Ricardian equivalence. The paper advances the view that the arguments, which have been deployed against fiscal policy to the effect that it does not raise the level of economic activity, do not apply when a "functional finance" view of fiscal policy is adopted. A section on the intertermporal budget constraint considers whether this constraint rules out budget deficits, and concludes that in general it does not.

fiscal policy, functional finance, Ricardian Equivalence Theorem, inter-temporal budget constraint

Abstract:
This paper considers the nature and role of monetary policy when money is envisaged as credit money endogenously created within the private sector (by the banking system). Monetary policy is now based in many countries on the setting (or targeting) of a key interest rate, such as the Central Bank discount rate. The amount of money in existence then arises from the interaction of the private sector and the banks, based on the demand to hold money and the willingness of banks to provide loans. Monetary policy has become closely linked with the targeting of the rate of inflation. In this paper we consider whether monetary policy is well-equipped to act as a counter-inflation policy and discuss the more general role of monetary policy in the context of the treatment of money as endogenous. Currently, two schools of thought view money as endogenous. One school has been labeled the "new consensus" and the other the Keynesian endogenous (bank) money approach. Significant differences exist between the two approaches; the most important of these, for the purposes of this paper, is in the way in which the endogeneity of money is viewed. Although monetary policy - essentially interest rate policy - appears to be the same in both schools of thought, it is not. In this paper we investigate the differing roles of monetary policy in these two schools.

monetary policy, new consensus, endogenous money

Abstract:
Recent developments in macroeconomic policy, in terms of both theory and practice, have elevated monetary policy while downgrading fiscal policy. Monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument, along with the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. Elsewhere, we have critically examined the significance of this shift, which led us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy. We have also explored the role of fiscal policy and argued that it should be reinstated. This contribution aims to consider further that conclusion. We consider at length fiscal policy within the current "new consensus" theoretical framework. We find the proposition of this thinking, that fiscal policy provides at best a limited role, unconvincing. We examine the possibility of crowding out and the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem. A short review of quantitative estimates of fiscal policy multipliers gives credence to our theoretical conclusions. Our overall conclusion is that, under specified conditions, fiscal policy is a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy.

fiscal policy, crowding out, Ricardian Equivalence Theorem

Abstract:
This paper presents two issues: First, an effort to decipher the type of economic analysis and macroeconomic policies of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) theoretical and policy framework, which we suggest are essentially of the "new consensus" variety; Second, an argument that the challenges to the EMU macroeconomic policies lie in their potential to achieve full employment and low inflation in the euro area. We conclude that the institutional and policy arrangements surrounding the EMU and the euro are neither adequate for dealing with today's problems of unemployment and inflation nor promising for the future. We propose alternative policies, and institutional arrangements.

macroeconomic policies, EMU, monetary policy, fiscal policy

Abstract:
This paper explores the probable consequences for public expenditure in the UK if Britain were to join the euro. It focuses on the effects of sterling joining the euro (and the associated implications, such as monetary policy being governed by the European Central Bank). It does not consider any broader questions of the effects of membership in the European Union and the policies pursued by the EU and the European Commission. Since the fiscal stance of government influences the level of demand in the economy, there are also important implications for the level of employment more generally. While the general deflationary nature of the economic policy of the eurozone (an issue we have explored elsewhere on many occasions) should not be overlooked, the focus of this paper is on the implications for public expenditure of the eurozone and the UK's possible entry into the euro.

euro, public expenditure, monetary policy

Abstract:
In the United Kingdom the emergence of a "New Labour" has been closely associated with the development of the notion of the "third way." Tony Blair, for example, stated that "New Labour is neither old left nor new right. . . . Instead we offer a new way ahead, that leads from the centre but is profoundly radical in the change it promises." In a similar vein Giddens locates the "third way" by reference to two other "ways" of classical social democracy and neoliberalism. Although some notable contributions have been made on the subject of the "third way," rather little has been written specifically on the economic analysis underpinning it. This paper infers such an analysis by working back from the policies and policy pronouncements of governments. To do so, the paper examines the types of economic analyses being used to underpin the ideas of the "third way"; the suggestion that the ideas surrounding the economic analysis of the economic and monetary union's (EMU's) theoretical and policy framework are firmly embedded in that of "third way"; and the argument that the challenge for EMU macropolicies lies in their potential to achieve full employment and low inflation in the euro system. On the last point, the author concludes that these policies, as they currently operate, are not very promising. Alternatives are therefore suggested.

third way, New Labour, EMU

Abstract:
Recent developments in macroeconomics, and in economic policy in general, have produced a "new consensus" economy-wide model, in which the stock of money does not play any causal role, but operates as a mere residual in the economic process. The absence of the stock of money in many current debates over monetary policy has prompted the deputy governor of the Bank of England to note the irony of the situation: As central banks became more and more concerned with price stability, less and less attention is paid to money. Indeed in several countries, the decline of interest in money appears to have coincided with low inflation. In turn, a number of contributions have attempted, wittingly or unwittingly, to "reinstate" a more substantial role for money in this "new" macroeconomics. In this paper we argue that these attempts to "reinstate" money in current macroeconomic thinking entail two important problems. First, they contradict an important theoretical property of the new "consensus" macroeconomic model, namely, that of dichotomy between the monetary and the real sector. Second, some of these attempts either fail in terms of their objective or merely reintroduce the problem rather than solve it. We conclude that if money is to be given a causal role in the "new" consensus model, more substantial research is needed.

"new" macroeconomics, stock of money, monetary economics

Abstract:
The dominant view relating to unemployment and inflation is that inflation will be constant at a level of unemployment (the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, NAIRU) determined on the supply side of the economy (and in the labor market in particular). Further, the economy will tend to converge to (or oscillate around) that level of unemployment. Moreover, demand variables or economic policy changes are thought to have no influence whatsoever on NAIRU. An alternative perspective on inflation would indicate that there would be no automatic forces leading to a level of aggregate demand consistent with constant inflation. Inflationary pressures would arise from, inter alia, a role of conflict over income shares, and from cost elements, with the price of raw materials, especially oil, being the most important. Insofar as there are supply-side factors impinging on the inflationary process, these would arise from the level of productive capacity (relative to aggregate demand) and from conflict over income shares. This paper focuses on the arguments and the evidence that supply-side constraints should be viewed as arising from capacity constraints, rather than from the operation of the labor market.

capacity, conflict, aggregate demand, inflation

Abstract:
The nature of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is analysed. The focus of our analysis is the role of aggregate demand and capacity in the context of the NAIRU. Two aspects of the relationship between the level of aggregate demand and the NAIRU are of particular significance. First, it is argued that the real wage-employment relationship based on enterprise decisions cannot be fully articulated without reference to the level of aggregate demand. Second, a model which allows for variable returns to labour and the notion of full capacity is used to explore the effects of shifts in the capital stock on the real wage-employment relationship. The model is specifically used to explore whether a sufficiently expansionary environment can generate sufficient investment to shift that relationship until the NAIRU is compatible with full employment. A number of limitations on the conclusions reached are considered, and the policy implications are briefly considered.

Abstract:
Books reviewed:

David Coates. Models of Capitalism: Growth and Stagnation in the Modern Era

David Coates. Models of Capitalism: Debating Strengths and Weaknesses: Volume 1, Capitalist Models: Divergence and Convergence; Volume 2, Capitalist Models under Challenge; Volume 3, The Ascendancy of Liberal Capitalism

Peter Ackers and Adrian Wilkinson. Understanding Work & Employment: Industrial Relations in Transition

Gregory K. Dow. Governing the Firm: Workers' Control in Theory and Practice

Mario Baldassarri. How to Reduce Unemployment in Europe

Paul Edwards. Industrial Relations: Theory and Practice

Richard N. Block, Karen Roberts and R. Oliver Clarke. W. E. Labour Standards in the United States and Canada

Charlotte Rayner, Helge Hoel and Gary Cooper. Workplace Bullying: What We Know, Who Is to Blame, and What Can We Do?

Stale Einarsen, Helge Hoel, Dieter Zapf and Cary L. Cooper. Bullying and Emotional Abuse in the Workplace: International Perspectives in Research and Practice

Michael Hogg and Deborah J. Terry. Social Identity Processes in Organizational Contexts

Gabrielle Meagher. Friend or Flunkey? Paid Domestic Workers in the New Economy

Abstract:
This paper proposes an alternative stability and growth pact to the one which accompanied the introduction of the euro in January 1999. The latter is part of the third stage of economic and monetary union and, will govern the economic policies of the member countries which have joined the single currency and strongly constrain the policies of those who do not join. The alternative proposed in this paper is a Full Employment, Growth and Stability Pact and would have a number of features, the most important of which is the creation of new institutional arrangements, including the creation of an investment bank.

stability pact, European central bank, investment bank, monetary policy, fiscal policy