• Selected
• Entire List

Abstract:
Home mortgages have loomed continually larger in the financial situation of American households. In 1949, mortgage debt was equal to 20 percent of total household income; by 1979, it had risen to 46 percent of income; by 2001, 73 percent of income (Bernstein, Boushey and Mishel, 2003). Similarly, mortgage debt was 15 percent of household assets in 1949, but rose to 28 percent of household assets by 1979 and 41 percent of household assets by 2001. This enormous growth of American home mortgages, as shown in Figure 1 (as a percentage of GDP), has been accompanied by a transformation in their form such that American mortgages are now distinctively different from mortgages in the rest of the world. In addition, the growth in mortgage debt outstanding in the United States has closely tracked the mortgage market's increased reliance on securitization (Cho, 2004).

The structure of the modern American mortgage has evolved over time. We begin by describing this historical evolution. The U.S. mortgage before the 1930s would be nearly unrecognizable today: it featured variable interest rates, high down payments and short maturities. Before the Great Depression, homeowners typically renegotiated their loans every year.

We next compare the form of U.S. home mortgages today with those in other countries. The U.S. mortgage provides many more options to borrowers than are commonly provided elsewhere: American homebuyers can choose whether to pay a fixed or floating rate of interest; they can lock in their interest rate in between the time they apply for the mortgage and the time they purchase their house; they can choose the time at which the mortgage rate resets; they can choose the term and the amortization period; they can prepay freely; and they can generally borrow against home equity freely. They can also obtain home mortgages at attractive terms with very low down payments. We discuss the nature of the U.S. government intervention in home mortgage markets that has led to the specific choices available to American homebuyers. We believe that the unique characteristics of the U.S. mortgage provide substantial benefits for American homeowners and the overall stability of the economy.

home mortgages, mortgage debt, historical evolution of U.S. mortgage structure

Abstract:
While other countries dismantled their segmented housing finance systems and linked housing finance to capital markets through deregulated depositories, the US linked housing finance to capital markets through depository deregulation and securitization. Elsewhere securitization has not developed. The US provided the underpinnings for its mortgage security infrastructure with the creation of FNMA in 1938 and in order to create liquidity in the mortgage market required the standardization of mortgage documentation and more fundamentally required that home mortgages within securities would be sufficiently homogeneous that they could trade in liquid markets. These developments allowed 22 years of uninterrupted liquidity in the market for conventional conforming mortgages, to be followed by the creation of a subprime mortgage market backed by securities that were illiquid, nonstandardized and marked to model not to market which allowed systemic underpricing of risk. This paper presents the recent history of the linkage of mortgage funding to financial markets in the US and elsewhere and specifically in the US suggests how the housing finance revolution resulted in the "terror" which has brought down global financial markets.

Real estate, mortgages, housing, capital markets, securitization, mortgage security infrastructure, liquidity, subprime mortgage-backed securities, MBS, marked to model, systemic underpricing of risk, speculation, pricing of risks, default risk, underpriced credit

Abstract:
This paper provides a conceptual basis for the price discovery potential for tradable market instruments and specifically the development of mortgage securitization in Asia and the potential dangers of such markets. Nonetheless we argue for the potential importance of securitization in Asia because of its possible role in increasing transparency of the financial sector of Asian economies. We put forth a model explaining how misaligned incentives can lead to bank generated real estate crashes and macroeconomic instability, with or without securitization under certain circumstances. We examine the banking sector's performance in Asia compared to securitized real estate returns, to provide evidence on the contribution of misaligned incentives in the past. We discuss how the addition of liquid MBS could help to inoculate markets from the shocks arising from bank-financed mortgage lending. We conclude with a brief discussion of current MBS markets in Asia.

real estate, mortgage securitization, banking, instability, mortgage-backed securities, MBS markets, Asia

Abstract:
This article tests whether the activity at a metropolitan area's airport helps predict population and employment growth. In regression equations explaining employment and population growth, the article uses various measures of airport activity, including boardings, originations, hub status and cargo volume. Because airports may be a function of, as well as a cause of, growth, the article instruments for airports by using geographical and lagged variables. It finds that, under a variety of specifications, passenger activity is a powerful predictor of growth; cargo activity is not.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Immigration has and will continue to alter the composition of housing demand in the United Sates. In this article, we analyze results from a new survey of Mexican-heritage households to draw some inferences about tenure choice within that group. Some measures of attachment to the United States residency status and the amount of money sent to relatives and friends in Mexico suggest that, among Mexican immigrants, permanence is a key determinant of homeownership in the United States. More specifically, being a citizen increased the probability of ownership, whereas being undocumented reduces the probability. Surprisingly, after controlling for residency status, length of tenure in the United States does not predict tenure status, except that those who refused to report length of tenure were more likely to have higher tenure status. Those who sent remittances home to Mexico were less likely to become homeowners.

Abstract:
The homeownership rate in the United States was essentially stagnant during the 1980's. This stagnation should be a source of concern if the rate reflects stagnant economic conditions and ownership opportunities, not if it simply reflects changing demographic conditions or preferences. Using a series of affordability measures, we find that homeownership opportunities improved almost everywhere during the 1980's, suggesting that the cause of the stagnant rate was something other than economic conditions. In fact, we find that both demographics and changes in preferences led to an increase in the proportion of households headed by single people; all else being equal, this would tend to push the owner-occupancy rate downward. We also found that while homeownership opportunities improved during the 1980's, the ex ante use cost of owning a home increased almost everywhere, reducing the financial attractiveness of owning a home. The combination of improving affordability conditions and worsening financial appeal had an overall neutral effect on the aggregate ownership rate.

Abstract:
Not so long ago, the US housing finance system was arguably the best in the world. Consumers had access to products that were not available elsewhere, and the market was able to sustain major economic disruptions with relatively little impact on either the cost or availability of mortgage credit. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (hereafter the GSEs) provided the cornerstone of that system and deserve much of the credit for its success.

But despite their many accomplishments, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now essentially wards of the state and most policymakers have concluded that the GSE model is effectively dead. This paper attempts to establish a case for GSE reform that retains a market-driven approach but addresses acknowledged problems through charter revisions and better regulation.

Abstract:
This research assesses the impact of income and property taxes on house prices using a decadal panel data set for 63 metropolitan areas from 1970 to 1990. We find that marginal income and property tax rates are fully capitalized into house prices and explain a significant proportion of the regional variation in house prices. Applying the results to proposed tax changes, we show that removal of the interest and property tax deduction will reduce the average house price by 14% and could result in house price declines of up to 30% in some locations.

Abstract:
This research assesses the impact of income and property taxes on house prices using a decadal panel data set for 63 metropolitan areas from 1970 to 1990. Our evidence is consistent with full capitalization of marginal income tax rates into house prices. Full capitalization suggests that income tax changes have limited effects on the allocation of real capital among structure types, implying that past changes in the tax advantages have had little impact on home ownership and housing investment, in contrast to the conclusions of much of the existing literature. When we apply the results to some proposed tax changes, we compute substantial house price declines and wide geographic variation.

Abstract:
This study uses new data on the rate of prepayment on conventional single-family adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that originated between 1983 and 1986 to determine if ARMs with and without initial-year discounts have the same probability of paying off. The new data are from a large national private mortgage insurer in the United States. Each loan is tracked from its origination date through prepayment or the end of 1991. Nonparametric test statistics are used to test for differences in these prepayment rates. The findings suggest that ARMs with initial-year discounts are paid off at a rate that is essentially no different from the rate on otherwise comparable ARMs without initial-year discounts.

Abstract:
This study uses new data on the rate of prepayment on conventional single-family adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that originated between 1983 and 1986 to determine if ARMs with and without initial-year discounts have the same probability of paying off. The new data are from a large national private mortgage insurer in the United States. Each loan is tracked from its origination date through prepayment or the end of 1991. Nonparametric test statistics are used to test for differences in these prepayment rates. The findings suggest that ARMs with initial-year discounts are paid off at a rate that is essentially no different from the rate on otherwise comparable ARMs without initial-year discounts.

Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of different kinds of investments on the business cycle. Specifically, it examines whether residential and non-residential investment Granger cause GDP, and whether GDP Granger causes each of these types of investments. The paper uses quarterly National Income and Products Data for the period 1959 to 1992. Under a wide variety of time-series specifications, residential investment causes, but is not caused by GDP, while non-residential investment does not cause, but is caused by GDP. Thus, housing leads and other types of investment lag the business cycle. The results also suggest that policies designed to funnel capital away from housing into plant and equipment could produce severe short-run dislocations.

Abstract:
This paper investigates the relative maintenance levels of owner and renter-occupied housing by examining their short and long-run appreciation rates. A large data set that includes information on every parcel in Pinellas County, Florida is used to control for structural and locational differences. Standard repeat-sale index estimation procedures are extended to determine whether owner-occupied houses nominally appreciate faster than renter-occupied housing. If owner-occupied housing appreciates more than renter-occupied housing, this implies that it is filtering less and is being better maintained, assuming general equilibrium conditions apply. Contrary to previous work, we find only weak evidence to support the notion that long-term rates of appreciation are substantially different between owner and renter-occupied housing.

Abstract:
Recent Administration proposals intend to increase the homeownership rate by roughly 2.5 percent to 67.5 percent by the year 2000. The possible use of the federal tax code is virtually ignored in these proposals. Using a user cost framework incorporated into a tenure choice equation and both macro- and micro-level analyses, we demonstrate that the revenue-neutral replacement of the current deductibility of home mortgage interest and property taxes with a tax credit of the appropriate level alone can increase aggregate homeownership rates by approximately 3 percent. Moreover, these increases (and accompanying increases in home values) are even higher in lower-income neighborhoods, suggesting that such a policy could address the supplementary community development purpose of neighborhood stabilization.