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Abstract:
We examine two questions: Does precision or roundedness of prices bias magnitude judgments? If so, do these biased judgments affect buyer behavior? In a laboratory pre-test, we find that people incorrectly judge precise prices (e.g., $325,425) to be lower than round prices of similar magnitudes (e.g., $325,000). Building on evidence of greater prevalence of precision in smaller numbers and roundedness in larger numbers (Dehaene and Mehler 1992), we suggest that representativeness of digit patterns might influence magnitude judgments. We term this the precision heuristic in price magnitude judgments. We examine the effect of this precision heuristic on buyer's willingness to pay (WTP) in two distinct but complementary ways. First, we conduct a laboratory study to understand the psychological mechanism behind the precision heuristic. We find that people do learn to associate precision with smaller magnitudes, and that this association biases their price magnitude judgments. Additionally, we rule out alternative explanations which posit that a precise price signals a seller's low-price strategy or her unwillingness to negotiate. Based on these findings, we suggest that although the precision heuristic can lead to biased judgments, it is an ecologically valid judgment criterion. Next, using data from more than 27,000 residential real estate transactions in two separate markets, we find that buyers pay higher sale prices when list prices are more precise. This finding is consistent with the precision heuristic, suggesting that buyers perceive precise list prices to be lower, and therefore accept sale prices that are closer to the list price. These results have substantive implications for buyer and seller behaviors, and theoretical implications for the understanding of price cognition process.

price magnitude judgments, representativeness, precision heuristic

Abstract:
We examine how offering digital content affects demand for print magazines. Using a searchable website archive, we measure the digital content offered by a sample of US consumer magazines from 1996-2001. We find strong evidence that digital content cannibalizes print sales. On average, a magazine's print circulation declines about three percent when it offers a website. However, the effect varies with the type of digital content offered. Offering digital access to the entire contents of the current print magazine reduces print sales by about nine percent. We find no evidence that digital content complements print magazines. These results are robust to including controls for unobserved magazine, category, and time effects, as well as controls for the impact of contemporaneous price changes and other factors.

Magazines, website, cannibalization

Abstract:
We examine the impact of post-9/11 airport security measures on air travel in the U.S. Using five years of data on passenger volume, we evaluate the effects of the implementation of baggage screening and the federalization of passenger screening on the demand for air travel. These two congressionally mandated measures are the most visible changes in airport security following the 9/11 attacks. Exploiting the phased introduction of security measures across airports, we find that baggage screening reduced passenger volume by about five percent on all flights, and by about eight percent on flights departing from the nations fifty busiest airports. In contrast, federalizing passenger screening had little effect on passenger volume. We provide evidence that the reduction in demand was an unintended consequence of baggage screening and not the result of contemporaneous price changes, airport-specific shocks, or other factors. Moreover, this decline in air travel has substantial welfare implications. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that the airline industry lost about $1.1 billion, a tenth of the projected revenue lost because of 9/11 itself. Similar calculations show that the substitution of driving for flying by those seeking to avoid security inconvenience likely lead to over 100 road fatalities.

air travel, terrorism, security

Abstract:
We examine the impact of post-9/11 airport security measures on air travel in the U.S. Using five years of data on passenger volume, we evaluate the effects of the implementation of baggage screening and the federalization of passenger screening on the demand for air travel. These two congressionally mandated measures are the most visible changes in airport security following the 9/11 attacks. Exploiting the phased introduction of security measures across airports, we find that baggage screening reduced passenger volume by about five percent on all flights, and by about eight percent on flights departing from the nations fifty busiest airports. In contrast, federalizing passenger screening had little effect on passenger volume. We provide evidence that the reduction in demand was an unintended consequence of baggage screening and not the result of contemporaneous price changes, airport-specific shocks, or other factors. Moreover, this decline in air travel has substantial welfare implications. "Back-of-the-envelope" calculations indicate that the airline industry lost about $1.1 billion, a tenth of the projected revenue lost because of 9/11 itself. Similar calculations show that the substitution of driving for flying by those seeking to avoid security inconvenience likely lead to over 100 road fatalities.

air travel, terrorism, security

Abstract:
We study dual agency in residential real estate, where the same agent/agency represents both the buyer and seller. We assess the extent to which dual agency suffers from an inherent conflict of interest, where the dual agent furthers the interest of one client at the expense of the other client’s, as well as principal-agent incentive misalignment where the agent furthers her own interest at the expense of one or both clients. And, we examine how these incentive conflicts affect agent behavior and transaction outcomes. To do so, we analyze 10,891 residential real estate transactions in Long Island, NY, from 2004-2007. Specifically, we (i) identify how dual agency is correlated with house prices and time-to-sale, (ii) describe and assess agent behaviors that could generate these correlations, and (iii) provide some intuition as to the economic effects of prohibiting dual agency in real estate transactions. We find that the incidence of dual agency is uncorrelated with sale price and negatively correlated with time-to-sale. However, on very fast deals, list prices and sale prices are significantly higher on houses sold via dual agency. These findings are consistent with first-resort selling (agents first showing houses to in-house buyer clients) and strategic pricing (agents inducing their seller clients to set a higher list price in anticipation of an internal client agreeing to it) on some deals, in conjunction with agents leaning on sellers to accept a lower sale price on other deals. First-resort selling is indicative of incentive misalignment, while the latter two behaviors reflect a conflict of interest: strategic pricing transfers surplus from the buyer to the seller, and leaning on the seller transfers surplus from the seller to the buyer. Further, our results indicate little difference between dual-agent (same agent) and within-agency (same agency, but different agent) deals. Our findings provide some evidence of distorted outcomes associated with dual agency, mainly on fast deals, but the evidence indicates mild overall effects, suggesting that prohibiting the practice is not likely to substantially increase welfare.

Conflict of interest, real estate, first resort selling, strategic pricing, leaning on the seller, time-to-sale

Abstract:
We examine the impact of multimarket contact on on-time performance in the airline industry. Using flight-level data for more than 3.5 million flights, we find that increases in multimarket contact lead to increases in delays, and this result is robust to several delay measures and the inclusion of carrier-route, as well as month, fixed effects. We further determine that the effect is primarily in the form of departure delays, and not due to changes in scheduled flight times or time spent in the air. These findings provide support for the mutual forbearance hypothesis, and suggest that multimarket contact facilitates tacit collusion not only on price - but also on quality.

Airlines, Multimarket contact, Mutual forebearance, On-Time performance

Abstract:
We find that driving fatalities increased significantly following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, an event which prompted many travelers to substitute less-safe surface transportation for safer air transportation. After controlling for time trends, weather, road conditions, and other factors, we attribute an increase of 242 driving fatalities per month to additional road travel undertaken in response to 9/11. In total, our results suggest that at least 1,200 additional driving deaths are attributable to the effect of 9/11. We also provide evidence that is consistent with the 9/11 effect on road fatalities weakening over time as drivers return to flying. Our results show that the public response to terrorist threats can create unintended consequences that rival the attacks themselves in severity.

security, terrorism, road and air travel

Abstract:
We test for the existence of gender bias in power relationships. Specifically, we examine whether police officers are less likely to issue traffic tickets to men or to women during traffic stops. Whereas the conventional wisdom, which we document with surveys, is that women are less likely to receive tickets, our analysis shows otherwise. Examination of a pooled sample of traffic stops from five locations reveals no gender bias, but does show significant regional variation in the likelihood of citations. Analysis by location shows that women are more likely to receive citations in three of the five locations. Men are more likely to receive citations in the other two locations. To our knowledge, this study is the first to test for gender bias in traffic stops, and clearly refutes the conventional wisdom that police are more lenient towards women.

Gender discrimination, police, traffic stops

Abstract:
In this paper we measure the effect of Internet adoption on consumers’ propensity to adopt a wide range of diffusing products. To do this, we utilize a rich panel of household surveys on purchases of relatively new technology products. Our results indicate that the Internet accelerates product diffusion, but with varying magnitude. In an attempt to determine the mechanisms underlying this effect, we find direct evidence that the Internet does not increase product awareness. However, we find suggestive evidence that the Internet increases adoption rates both through access to increased information about new products (via online research) and through online shopping. We also find that the magnitude of the Internet’s effect is strongly tied to diffusion rates, and especially familiarity rates. This finding is consistent with Internet access having the greatest impact on the adoption of products with more developed marketing strategies (i.e., more developed information sources and online markets). Our findings indicate that the Internet helps bolster demand for products early in their diffusion process, and they suggest that improved access to information and the convenience of online shopping are likely the primary drivers of this effect. Consequently, to the extent that accelerated diffusion of new products is (on net) desirable, our findings may provide a further argument toward social promotion of Internet adoption.

Internet, Diffusion, New Products, Rank Model, Epidemic Model

Abstract:
State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lotteries are extremely popular, particularly among low-income citizens. State officials laud the benefits of lottery proceeds and promote the fun and excitement of participation. This entertainment value is one explanation for lottery demand by the poor: individuals with lower incomes substitute lottery play for other entertainment. Alternatively, low-income consumers may view lotteries as a convenient and otherwise rare opportunity for radically improving their standard of living. Bad times may cause desperation, and the desperate may turn to lotteries in an effort to escape hardship. This study tests these competing explanations. We examine lottery sales data from 39 states over 10 years and find a strong and positive relationship between sales and poverty rates. In contrast, we find no relationship between movie ticket sales, another inexpensive form of entertainment, and poverty rates.