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Abstract:
This paper evaluates empirically the performance of six structural credit risk models by comparing the probabilities of default (PDs) they deliver to ex post default rates. In contrast to previous studies pursuing similar objectives, the paper employs firm-level data and finds that theory-based PDs tend to match closely the actual level of credit risk and to account for its time path. At the same time, nonmodelled macro variables from the financial and real sides of the economy help to substantially improve the forecasts of default rates. The finding suggests that theory-based PDs fail to fully reflect the dependence of credit risk on the business and credit cycles. Most of the upbeat conclusions regarding the performance of the PDs are due to models with endogenous default. For their part, frameworks that assume exogenous default tend to underpredict credit risk. Three borrower characteristics influence materially the predictions of the models: the leverage ratio; the default recovery rate; and the risk-free rate of return.

Probability of default, Credit risk models, Basel II, Macroeconomic factors of credit risk

Abstract:
In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk - as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default swap (CDS) index - we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. The time profile and overall level of index spreads validate our PD measures. At the same time, the physical asset return correlations are too low to account for the spreads of index tranches and, thus, point to a large correlation risk premium. This premium, which co-varies negatively with current realized correlations and positively with future realized correlations, sheds light on market perceptions of and attitude towards correlation risk.

Portfolio credit risk, CDS index, Tranche spread, Correlation risk premium, Physical correlation, Risk-neutral correlation, Copula

Abstract:
Equity and credit-default-swap (CDS) markets are in disagreement as to the extent to which asset returns co-move across firms. This suggests market segmentation and casts ambiguity about the asset-return correlations underpinning observed prices of portfolio credit risk. The ambiguity could be eliminated by - currently unavailable - data that reveal the market valuation of low-probability/large-impact events. At present, judicious assumptions about this valuation can be used to reconcile observed prices with asset-return correlations implied by either equity or CDS markets. These conclusions are based on an analysis of tranche spreads of a popular CDS index, which incorporate a rather small premium for correlation risk.

CDS index tranche, Joint distribution of asset returns, Correlation risk premium, Copula

Abstract:
Prudential tools that target financial stability need to be calibrated at the level of the financial system but implemented at the level of each regulated institution. They require a methodology for the allocation of system-wide risk to the individual institution in line with its systemic importance. This article proposes a general and flexible allocation methodology and uses it to identify and quantify the drivers of systemic importance. It then illustrates how the methodology could be employed in practice, based on a sample of large internationally active institutions.

Abstract:
Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian inference reveals that - for realistic assumptions about the portfolio's credit quality and the data underlying parameter estimates - this uncertainty substantially increases the tail risk perceived by the investor. Since incorporating parameter uncertainty in a measure of tail risk is computationally demanding, the paper also derives and analyzes a closed-form approximation to such a measure.

correlated defaults, estimation error, risk management

Abstract:
Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian inference reveals that - for realistic assumptions about the portfolio's credit quality and the data underlying parameter estimates - this uncertainty substantially increases the tail risk perceived by the investor. Since incorporating parameter uncertainty in a measure of tail risk is computationally demanding, the paper also derives and analyzes a closed-form approximation to such a measure.

Correlated defaults, Estimation error, Risk management

Abstract:
This paper develops an empirical procedure for analyzing the impact of model misspecification and calibration errors on measures of portfolio credit risk. When applied to large simulated portfolios with realistic characteristics, this procedure reveals that violations of key assumptions of the well-known Asymptotic Single-Risk Factor (ASRF) model are virtually inconsequential. By contrast, flaws in the calibrated interdependence of credit risk across exposures, which are driven by plausible small-sample estimation errors or popular rule-of-thumb values of asset return correlations, can lead to significant inaccuracies in measures of portfolio credit risk. Similar inaccuracies arise under erroneous, albeit standard, assumptions regarding the tails of the distribution of asset returns.

ated defaults, value at risk, multiple common factors, granularity, estimation error, tail dependence, bank capital

Abstract:
This paper illustrates various applications of the BIS international banking statistics. We first compare international bank flows to measures of real activity and liquidity and show that the international banking system is becoming a more important conduit for the transfer of capital across countries. We then use network analysis tools to construct a bird's eye view of the structure of the international banking market and to identify key financial hubs. Linking this information with balance of payments statistics helps to better understand the role of banks in the financing of current account flows, for example the recycling of petrodollars and Asian surpluses. Finally, the paper illustrates how the BIS statistics can be used to analyze internationally active banks' foreign exposures to credit risk and, thus, spot vulnerabilities in the international banking market.

international banking, foreign exposures, offshore centres, stress testing, petrodollars, Asian surplus

Abstract:
In the late 1990s, Morris and Shin proposed a new theoretical framework of financial crises, which generalised traditional models of strategic complementarity and self-fulfilling beliefs by incorporating idiosyncratic uncertainty about the state. The innovative feature of their framework is expressed by its capacity to account for seemingly unwarranted speculative attacks under equilibrium uniqueness and to thus place policy analysis on a firm footing. The macroeconomic implications of the framework have been questioned, however, because it ignores the issue of information aggregation via market prices. Motivated by such criticism, this paper modifies the Morris-Shin setup by allowing prices to adjust freely to market conditions. It is then shown that all of the appealing characteristics of that setup are preserved even when public information has an endogenously disseminated component. Moreover, the prevailing weak form of strategic complementarity, in conjunction with heterogeneity of private agents' information sets, leads to a less restrictive prerequisite for equilibrium uniqueness. Further, the paper's model delivers new policy implications and suggests a change in the approach of structural currency crisis empirical analysis.

Abstract:
This article compares the linkages between credit fundamentals, ratings and value-at-risk measures for CDO tranches with those for corporate bond exposures. A sensitivity analysis incorporating market information and rating migrations data reveals that the behaviour of CDO tranche ratings can differ markedly from that of corporate ratings. In addition, tranching is found to have an important impact on the probability of large losses. This highlights how investors who narrowly focus on ratings and draw direct parallels with corporate exposures can seriously misjudge the value-at-risk of CDOs.

CDOs, ratings, value-at-risk

Abstract:
This paper develops an empirical procedure for analyzing the impact of model misspecification and calibration errors on measures of portfolio credit risk. When applied to large simulated portfolios with realistic characteristics, this procedure reveals that violations of key assumptions of the well-known Asymptotic Single-Risk Factor (ASRF) model are virtually inconsequential. By contrast, flaws in the calibrated inter-dependence of credit risk across exposures, which are driven by plausible small-sample estimation errors or popular rule-of-thumb values of asset return correlations, can lead to significant inaccuracies in measures of portfolio credit risk. Similar inaccuracies arise under erroneous, albeit standard, assumptions regarding the tails of the distribution of asset returns.

Correlated defaults, Value at risk, Multiple common factors, Granularity, Estimation error, Tail dependence, Bank capital

Abstract:
The empirical methodology of the paper establishes if a speculative attack, which is accounted for via sunspots in the presence of multiple equilibria, could have been in fact driven uniquely by economic fundamentals. The methodology is based on the theoretical models of Bertola and Svensson (1993) and Tarashev (2003). The first model captures robust stylised facts from target zone regimes, whereas the second one implies that both unique and multiple equilibria can account for violent speculative attacks. The characteristics of the theoretical foundations and their implications for the employed statistical test distinguish the paper from previous structural empirical analyses of market bets against pegged currencies. The methodology is applied to the experience of two ERM countries in the fall of 1992. The attack on the French Franc is found to be triggered by sunspots, whereas it is impossible to determine whether a similar scenario or the state of the economy alone underpins the currency crisis in Italy.

speculative attacks, sun spots

Abstract:
Confronted with a speculative attack on its currency peg, an authority weighs the short-term benefit of giving in and fine tuning the economy against the long-term benefit of credibility-enhancing resistance. In turn, speculators with heterogeneous beliefs face strategic uncertainty that peaks at the time of the attack, when the fate of the peg is unclear, and then declines, as the economy settles in a stable currency regime. In this environment, a less conservative authority - i.e. one that stabilises less the exchange rate once a peg is abandoned - may be more likely to withstand an attack on the peg. This result, which strengthens as speculators' risk aversion declines, casts doubt on the conventional wisdom that greater conservatism enhances welfare.

Global games of regime change, Strategic uncertainty, Coordination, Currency crises

Abstract:
The structure of the international banking market has evolved in important ways since the introduction of the euro in 1999. In comparison to legacy currencies, the use of the euro in cross-border banking transactions grew on aggregate, and the bilateral linkages within the euro area became more dispersed in the years after its introduction. However, growth in the use of the euro globally has plateaued more recently. In addition, measures of banks’ presence in foreign credit markets reveal rather mixed signs of greater integration of the euro area banking system since 1999.

International banking, introduction of the euro, banking integration, euro lending

Abstract:
Over the past decade, many emerging markets have increased their dependence on credit from foreign banks. However, the ongoing financial crisis may prompt banks to reassess their exposures to these economies. Panel regression analysis of data since the early 1990s indicates that a deterioration in bank health is associated with a decline in the growth of credit to emerging markets.

Emerging markets, international banking, financial crisis, foreign bank participation

Abstract:
Activity in the international banking market has grown in recent years, both in absolute terms and relative to aggregate measures of economic activity and liquidity. By establishing a global outreach, several international banking centres have become key players in this market. This feature shows how the BIS international banking statistics can be used to track the net flow of capital through the global banking system, with a focus on the role of banks in the United Kingdom and Caribbean and Asian offshore centres.

International banking, international capital flows, global imbalances