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Abstract:
Recent research has shown that unobserved components (UC) models can, under certain conditions, be estimated without imposing the common zero-correlation restriction between the permanent and transitory innovations. Estimates applying this model to US real GDP suggest that US output experiences considerable permanent movements. This result is in stark contrast to the findings based on estimates of zero-correlation models which suggest that fluctuations in output are primarily transitory. If the transitory component of US real GDP is asymmetric, particularly during recessions, then the linear UC model may over-emphasize permanent movements due to the dominance of expansions in the data. This paper produces and estimates an unobserved components model that allows for asymmetric transitory movements and for correlation between all the innovations. The asymmetry is modeled using Markov-switching in the transitory component, in the spirit of Kim and Nelson's (1999) version of Friedman's plucking model. The findings suggest that both permanent movements and asymmetric transitory shocks are important for explaining post-war output fluctuations in the U.S.

Asymmetry, Unobserved Components, Markov-Switching, Business Cycles

Abstract:
This paper estimates the permanent and transitory movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate and the relationships between them. The results suggest that permanent movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate are important for explaining overall fluctuations. Further, the correlation between changes in these series arises in large part due to the relationship between their permanent components.

Unobserved Components, Business Cycle, Trend GDP, Cyclical Unemployment, Natural Rate of Unemployment

Abstract:
This paper contributes to the debate about the relative importance of permanent versus transitory disturbances as sources of variation in output across the G-7 countries. We employ a multivariate unobserved components model to simultaneously decompose the real GDP for each of the G-7 countries into their respective permanent and transitory components. In contrast to much of the related literature, our model allows for explicit interaction between the components both within and across series. This approach thus allows us to distinguish cross-country correlations driven by the relationships between permanent innovations from those between transitory movements. We find that fluctuations in output are primarily due to permanent movements for all of the G-7 countries. We also find that the correlation between the permanent and transitory innovations within each series is significantly negative. With regards to cross-country relationships, we find important idiosyncratic variation in the correlation across different country pairs.

Permanent-Transitory Decompositions, Business Cycles, Correlations, Real GDP

Abstract:
Recent declines in job tenure have coincided with a shift away from traditional defined benefit (DB) pensions, which reward long tenure. New evidence also points to an increase in job-to-job movements by workers, and we document gains in relative wages of job-to-job movers over a similar period. We develop a search model in which firms may offer tenure-based contracts like DB pensions to reduce the incidence of costly on-the-job search by workers. Either reduced search costs or an increase in the probability of job matches can, under fairly general conditions, lower the value of deterring search and the use of DB pensions.

Pension, Contracts, On-the-job search, Job tenure, Matching models, Job-to-job flows

Abstract:
Recent declines in job tenure have coincided with a shift away from traditional defined benefit (DB) pensions, which reward long tenure. Recent evidence also points to an increase in job-to-job movements by workers, and we document gains in relative wages of job-to-job movers over a similar period. We develop a search model in which firms may offer tenure-based contracts like DB pensions to reduce the incidence of costly on-the-job search by workers. Reduced search costs can, under fairly general conditions, lower the value of deterring search and the use of DB pensions.