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Abstract:
The paper develops a model of foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments. FDI is characterized by hand-on management style which enables the owner to obtain relatively refined information about the productivity of the firm. This superiority, relative to portfolio investments, comes with a cost: A firm owned by the relatively well-informed FDI investor has a low resale price because of asymmetric information between the owner and potential buyers. Consequently, investors, who have a higher (lower) probability of getting a liquidity shock that forces them to sell early, will invest in portfolio (direct) investments. This result can explain the greater volatility of portfolio investments relative to direct investments. We show that this pattern may become weaker as the transparency in the capital market or the corporate governance in the host economy increase.

FDI, Capital Flows, Transparency, Asymmetric Information, Corporate Governance

Abstract:
The Mundell-Fleming model of international macroeconomics originated in the early 1960s and was extended during the ensuing quarter century. This paper develops an exposition which integrates the various facets of the model and incorporates its extensions into a unified analytical framework. Attention is given to (i) the distinction between short-run and long-run effects of policies, (ii) the implications of debt and tax finance of government expenditures and (iii) the role of the exchange rate regime in this regard. By identifying the key mechanisms operating in the model the exposition clarifies its limitations and facilitates comparison with other more modern approaches.

Abstract:
The paper extends Woodford's (2000) analysis of the closed economy Phillips curve to an open economy with both commodity trade and capital mobility. We show that consumption smoothing, which comes with the opening of the capital market, raises the degree of strategic complementarity among monopolistically competitive suppliers, thus rendering prices more sticky and magnifying output responses to nominal GDP shocks.

Phillips curve, new Keynesian, trade, capital mobility

Abstract:
The paper extends Woodford's (2000) analysis of the closed economy Phillips curve to an open economy with both commodity trade and capital mobility. We show that consumption smoothing, which comes with the opening of the capital market, raises the degree of strategic complementarity among monopolistically competitive suppliers, thus rendering prices more sticky and magnifying output responses to nominal GDP shocks.

Abstract:
Even though financial markets today show a high degree of integration, the world capital market is still far from the textbook story of high capital mobility. The purpose of this paper is to highlight key sources of market failure in the context of international capital flows and to provide guidelines for efficient tax structure in the presence of capital market imperfections. The analysis distinguishes three types of international capital flows: foreign portfolio debt investment, foreign portfolio equity investment, and foreign direct investment. The paper emphasizes the efficiency of a nonuniform tax treatment of the various vehicles of international capital flows.

Abstract:
The intratemporal redistribution feature of the welfare state makes it an attractive destination for immigrants, particularly for low-skill immigrants. George Borjas (1994) reports that foreign-born households in the United States accounted for 10 percent of households receiving public assistance in 1990, and for 13 percent of total cash assisitance distributed, even though they constituted only 8 percent of all households in the United States. In this chapter we explore the implications of various redistribution policies for the attitude of the native-born towards migrants. We analyze the effect of migration on the shape and magnitude of redistribution policies that are determined in a political economy equilibrium; at the same time, we address the question whether the level of migration, when not restricted, is higher or lower in this welfare state than in the laissez-faire (no-redistribution) economy.

Abstract:
The paper studies determinants and consequences of sharp reductions in current account imbalances (reversals) in low- and middle-income countries. It poses two questions: what triggers reversals, and what factors explain how costly reversals are? It finds that both domestic variables, such as the current account balance, openness to trade, and the level of reserves, and external variables, such as terms of trade shocks, U.S. real interest rates, and growth in industrial countries, seem to play important roles in explaining reversals in current account imbalances. It also finds some evidence that countries with a less appreciated real exchange rate, higher investment, and more openness before the reversal tend to grow faster after a reversal occurs.

Current account deficits, current account sustainability, capital flows

Abstract:
We develop a simple information-based model of FDI flows. On the one hand, the relative abundance of "intangible" capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other hand, host-country relative corporate-transparency diminishes the value of this expertise, thereby reducing the flow of FDI.

The model also demonstrates that the gains for the host country from foreign direct investment [over foreign portfolio investment (FPI)] are reflected in a more efficient size of the stock of domestic capital and its allocation across firms. These gains are shown to depend crucially (and positively) on the degree of competition among FDI investors.

Abstract:
This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

currency crisis, current account reversal, growth, real exchange rate

Abstract:
This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds that both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade and high interest rates in industrial countries, trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; indeed, current account imbalances are not sharply reduced in the years following a currency crisis. Economic performance around these events is also quite different. An exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversal events there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Abstract:
This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds that both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade and high interest rates in industrial countries, trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; indeed, current account imbalances are not sharply reduced in the years following a currency crisis. Economic performance around these events is also quite different. An exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversal events there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Abstract:
The aging of the population shakes the public finance of
pay-as-you-go social security systems. We develop a
political-economy framework in which this demographic change leads to the downsizing of the social security system, and, as a consequence, to the emergence of supplemental individual retirement programs. Making the balanced-budget rule (of the type of the Stability and Growth Pact in the EU) more flexible, to accommodate a one-shot cost of the social security reforms, is shown to facilitate the political-economy transition from a national to a private pension system, through an endogenously determined shift in the political economy equilibrium.

Abstract:
This paper highlights key macroeconomic issues related to VAT harmonization. A model is developed which emphasizes the effects of changes in the time profile of various taxes on international behavior. Dynamic simulations reveal that the macroeconomic and welfare implications of VAT harmonization, including conflicts of interest, depend critically on the tax system and the degree of substitution governing temporal and intertemporal allocations. We also demonstrate that the effects of revenue-neutral tax conversions between income and consumption tax systems undertaken by a single country depend critically on international differences in behavior.

Abstract:
The paper develops a model with lumpy setup costs, which govern the flow of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). Every country is potentially both a source for FDI flows to several host countries, and a host for FDI flows from several source countries. But technologically-advanced countries have a comparative advantage in setting up foreign subsidiaries. Thus, the model generates two-way, rich-rich and rich-poor, FDI flows. We employ a sample of 24 OECD countries, over the period 1981-1998. We observe many pairs of countries with no FDI flows between them. Zero reported flows could indicate either true zeros stemming from marginal productivity conditions, measurment errors, or true zeroes that are due to fixed costs (which dominate marginal productivity conditions). Previous empirical literature on the determinants of FDI flows imposes a no-fixed cost assumption on the estimation procedure (Tobit). In contrast, by employing the Heckman selection procedure, we show that the Tobit restriction is not consistent with the data, and yields biased estimates. Controlling for the selection into source-host pairs of countries, and for time and country fixed effects, we find: (1) FDI flows respond positively to advances in host country level of education relative to the source country level of education, whereas the source-country level of education is a predictor of the formation of source-host country pairs; (2) FDI flows respond positively to improvements in host country financial risk ratings relative to the source country ratings; (3) existence of rich-poor pairs hinge on surpassing an education-income threshold, whereas rich-rich FDI flow volumes depend on education and income levels.

Abstract:
The Paper provides a reconciliation of Lucas' paradox, based on fixed setup costs of new investments. With such costs, it does not pay a firm to make a 'small' investment, even though such an investment is called for by marginal productivity conditions. Using a sample of 45 developed and developing countries, we estimate jointly the participation equation (the decision whether to invest at all) and the FDI flow equation (the decision how much to invest). We find that countries, which are more likely to serve as source for FDI exports than their characteristics project, export lower flow of FDI than is predicted by their characteristics. This negative correlation suggests that the source countries with relatively low setup costs are also those with high marginal productivity of capital.

Abstract:
The paper provides a reconciliation of Lucas' paradox, based on fixed setup costs of new investments. With such costs, it does not pay a firm to make a small' investment, even though such an investment is called for by marginal productivity conditions. Using a sample of 45 developed and developing countries we estimate jointly the participation equation (the decision whether to invest at all) and the FDI flow equation (the decision how much to invest). We find that countries which are more likely to serve as source for FDI exports than their characteristics project export lower flow of FDI than is predicted by their characteristics. This negative correlation suggests that the source countries with relatively low setup costs are also those with high marginal productivity of capital.

Abstract:
In the political debate people express the idea that immigrants are good because they can help pay for the old. The paper explores this idea in a dynamic political-economy setup. We characterize sub-game perfect Markov equilibria where immigration policy and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security system are jointly determined through a majority voting process. The main feature of the model is that immigrants are desirable for the sustainability of the social security system, because the political system is able to manipulate the ratio of old to young and thereby the coalition which supports future high social security benefits. We demonstrate that the older is the native born population the more likely is that the immigration policy is liberalized; which in turn has a positive effect on the sustainability of the social security system.

demographic stretegic voting, overlapping generations, social security sustainability

Abstract:
In the political debate people express the idea that immigrants are good because they can help pay for the old. The paper explores this idea in a dynamic political-economy setup. We characterize sub-game perfect Markov equilibria where immigration policy and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security system are jointly determined through a majority voting process. The main feature of the model is that immigrants are desirable for the sustainability of the social security system, because the political system is able to manipulate the ratio of old to young and thereby the coalition which supports future high social security benefits. We demonstrate that the older the native-born population is, the more likely the immigration policy is to be liberalized, which in turn has a positive effect on the sustainability of the social security system.

Abstract:
A methodology for computing effective average tax rates on factor incomes and consumption using OECD data from national accounts and revenue statistics is described and applied to construct time series of tax rates for the group of seven largest industrialized countries. These tax rates are compared with estimates of effective marginal tax rates obtained in other studies. The stylized facts that distinguish tax systems across countries are documented, and the co-movements between the tax rates and savings, investment, net exports, unemployment, and hours worked are also examined. The results of this analysis illustrate some of the potential implications of tax policies currently under consideration and suggest that the proposed tax rates are useful approximations to those faced by representative agents in dynamic macroeconomic models.

Abstract:
The paper discusses a theory of FDI, which captures a unique feature: hands-on management standards to react in real time to a changing economic environment in the firms that FDI investors gain control. Equipped with superior managerial skills, foreign direct investors outbid portfolio investors for the top productivity firms in a particular industry in which they have specialized in the source country. Consequently, FDI investors would make investment, both larger, and higher quality, than the domestic investors. The theory can explain both two-way FDI flows among developed countries, and one-way FDI flows from developed to developing countries. Gains to the host country from FDI stem from the informational value of FDI. The predictions of the theory are consistent with the evidence: larger FDI coefficient in the domestic investment and output growth regressions relative to the equity flow coefficient, reflects a more significant role for FDI in the domestic investment process.

Abstract:
The paper surveys a theory of FDI, which captures a unique feature: hands-on management standards, that enable investors to react in real time to a changing economic environment. Equipped with superior managerial skills, foreign direct investors are able to outbid portfolio investors for the top productivity firms in a particular industry in which they have specialized in the source country. Consequently, FDI investors would make investment, both larger, and of higher quality (namely, with large rates of returns), than the domestic investors. The theory can explain both two-way FDI flows among developed countries, and one-way FDI flows from developed to developing countries. Gains to the host country from FDI stem from the informational value of FDI. The predictions of the theory are consistent with evidence from panel data: larger FDI coefficients in the domestic investment and output growth regressions relative to the portfolio equity flow and international loan coefficients, reflect a more significant role for FDI in the domestic investment process than other types of capital inflows.

Abstract:
This paper distinguishes between debt and equity flows in the presence of information asymmetry between the firm`s "insiders" and "outsiders" in a small open economy. It shows the inadequacy of capital investment because its scope is too narrow and the investment each firm makes is too little. An unconventional policy tool is proposed to correct the market failure: lump-sum subsidies to firms that choose to equity-finance their investments.

debt and equity, efficient capital flows, asymmetric information, corrective policy

Abstract:
This paper puts forward a notion of current account sustainability that explicitly takes into account willingness to pay and willingness to lend in addition to intertemporal solvency. It argues that this notion of sustainability provides a better framework for understanding the variety of country experiences with protracted current account imbalances. Based on this notion, we identify a number of operational indicators related to the structure of the economy, the economic policy stance, and political economy factors. We use these sustainability indicators to evaluate the experience of a number of countries that ran persistent current account imbalances, and derive policy implications consistent with our notion of sustainability.

Abstract:
This paper highlights key issues pertinent for the understanding of international effects of domestic tax policies and of international tax harmonization. The analytical framework adopts the saving-investment balance approach to the analysis of international economic interdependence focusing on income, consumption, and international borrowing. A simulation model is developed that is richer in structure than the two period analytical model.
The analytical and simulation frameworks are used to analyze the consequences of revenue-neutral conversions between income and consumption (VAT) tax systems, the international effects of budget deficits and public-debt management, and the effects of international tax harmonization. We demonstrate that the effects of such changes in the structure of taxes depend critically on international differences in saving and investment propensities.

Abstract:
The paper develops a model of foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI). FDI is characterized by hands-on management style which enables the owner to obtain relatively refined information about the productivity of the firm. This superiority, relative to FPI, comes with a cost: a firm owned by the relatively well-informed FDI investor has a low resale price because of a "lemons" type asymmetric information between the owner and potential buyers. The model can explain several stylized facts regarding foreign equity flows, such as the larger ratio of FDI to FPI inflows in developing countries relative to developed countries, and the smaller volatility of FDI net inflows relative to FPI net inflows.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
A number of developing countries have run large and persistent current account deficits in both the late seventies/early eighties and in the early nineties, raising the issue of whether these persistent imbalances are sustainable. This paper puts forward a notion of current account sustainability and compares the experience of three Latin American countries--Chile, Colombia Mexico--and three East Asian countries--Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. It identifies a number of potential sustainability indicators and discusses their usefulness in predicting external crises.

Abstract:
We develop a simple information-based model of FDI flows. On the one hand, the abundance of intangible capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other hand, host-country corporate-transparency diminishes the value of this expertise, thereby reducing the flow of FDI. Empirical evidence (from a sample of 9 source countries and 13 host countries over the 1980s and 1990s), analyzed in a gravity-equation model, provides support for the theoretical hypotheses. The model also demonstrates that the gains for the host country from FDI (over foreign portfolio investment (FPI)) are reflected in a more efficient size of the stock of domestic capital and its allocation across firms. These gains are shown to depend crucially (and positively) on the degree of competition among FDI investors.

Foreign direct investment, intangible capital, transparency

Abstract:
In a Tobin's q model with productivity and liquidity shocks, we study the mechanism through which strong creditor protection increases the level and lowers the volatility of stock market prices. There are two channels at work: (1) the Tobin's q value under a credit crunch regime increases with creditor protection; and, (2) the probability of a credit crunch falls for given stochastic processes of underlying shocks when creditor protection improves.

We test these predictions by using cross-country panel regressions of the stock market price level and volatility, in 40 countries, over the period from 1984 to 2004, at annual frequency. We create indicators for liquidity shocks based on quantity and price measures. Estimated probabilities of big shocks to liquidity are used as forecasts of credit crunch. We find broad empirical support for the hypothesis that creditor protection increases the stock market price level and reduces its volatility directly and via its negative effect on the probability of credit crunch. Our empirical findings are robust to multiple specifications.

Abstract:
The New-Keynesian aggregate supply derives from micro-foundations an inflation-dynamics model very much like the tradition in the monetary literature. Inflation is primarily affected by: (i) Economic slack; (ii) Expectations; (iii) Supply shocks; and, (iv) Inflation persistence.

This paper extends the New Keynesian aggregate supply relationship to include fluctuations in potential output as an additional determinant of the relationship. Implications for monetary rules and for the estimation of the Phillips curve are pointed out.

New-Keynesian Phillips Curve, Potential Output, Taylor rules

Abstract:
The New-Keynesian aggregate supply derives from micro-foundations an inflation-dynamics model very much like the tradition in the monetary literature. Inflation is primarily affected by: (i) economic slack; (ii) expectations; (iii) supply shocks; and (iv) inflation persistence. This Paper extends the New-Keynesian aggregate supply relationship to include also fluctuations in potential output, as an additional determinant of the relationship. Implications for monetary rules and to the estimation of the Phillips curve are pointed out.

New-Keynesian Phillips curve, potential output, Taylor rules

Abstract:
The New-Keynesian aggregate supply derives from micro-foundations an inflation-dynamics model very much like the tradition in the monetary literature. Inflation is primarily affected by: (i) economic slack; (ii) expectations; (iii) supply shocks; and (iv) inflation persistence. This paper extends the New Keynesian aggregate supply relationship to include also fluctuations in potential output, as an additional determinant of the relationship. Implications for monetary rules and to the estimation of the Phillips curve are pointed out.

Abstract:
Data for the United States and countries in western Europe indicate a negative correlation between the dependency ratio and labor tax rates and the generosity of social transfers, after other factors that influence the size of the welfare state are controlled for. This occurs despite the increased political clout of the dependent population implied by the aging of the population. This paper develops an overlapping generations model of intra- and inter-generational transfers (including old-age social security) and human capital formation that addresses this seeming puzzle. We show that with democratic voting, an increase in the dependency ratio can lead to lower taxes or less generous social transfers.

Abstract:
Data for the United States and countries in Western Europe indicate a negative correlation between the dependency ratio and labor tax rates and the generosity of social transfers, after controlling for other factors that influence the size of the welfare state. This is despite the increased political clout of the dependent population implied by the aging of the population. This paper develops an overlapping generations model of intra-and inter-generational transfers (including old-age social security) and human capital formation which addresses this seeming puzzle. We show that with democratic voting, an increase in the dependency ratio can lead to lower taxes or less generous social transfers.

Abstract:
This paper demonstrates how a full-blown optimizing model of the dynamics of the current account can be reduced to a small-scale collection of reduced-form relations capable of implementing a rich set of macro-economic simulations. Emphasizing the role of shocks to productivity, labor employment, world rate of interest, and tax revenues the analysis can account for movements in trade imbalances, and the decline in private saving and investment observed recently in developed open economies.

Abstract:
The extent of taxation and redistribution policy is generally determined at a political-economy equilibrium by a balance between those who gain and those who lose from a more extensive tax-transfer policy. In a stylized model of migration and human capital formation we find somewhat against conventional wisdom that low-skill migration may lead to a lower tax burden and less redistribution than no migration even though the migrants join the pro-tax coalition.

Abstract:
The extent of taxation and redistribution policy is generally determined at a political-economy equilibrium by a balance between those who gain and those who lose from a more extensive tax-transfer policy. In a stylized model of migration and human capital formation we find, somewhat against conventional wisdom, that low-skill migration may lead to a lower tax burden and less redistribution than without migration, even though the migrants (naturally) join the pro-tax cum transfer coalition.

Abstract:
The extent of taxation and redistribution policy is generally determined at a political-economy equilibrium by a balance between those who gain and those who lose from a more extensive tax-transfer policy. In a stylized model of migration and human capital formation we find, somewhat against conventional wisdom, that low-skill migration may lead to a lower tax burden and less redistribution than without migration, even though the migrants (naturally) join the pro-tax cum transfer coalition.

Abstract:
We study the role of productivity and corporate taxation as driving forces of FDI among OECD countries in the presence of threshold barriers, which generate two margins for FDI decisions. Some simulations, based on the estimation results, suggest that there are marked differences in the sensitivity of FDI flows from the U.S. to productivity and taxes in OECD countries. Data on FDI flows are drawn from the International Direct Investment dataset (Source OECD), covering the bilateral FDI flows among 18 OECD countries over the period 1987 to 2003.The sensitivity of these flows to productivity in the U.K. is positive and high, relative to other EU countries and Japan. Similarly, the sensitivity of these flows to taxes in the U.K is negative and high, relative to other EU countries and Japan.

corporate taxation, Foreign direct investment, productivity, selection and flow equations

Abstract:
We develop a framework in which the host-country productivity has a positive effect on the intensive margin (the size of FDI flows), but only an ambiguous effect on the extensive margin (the likelihood of FDI flows to occur). The source-country productivity has a negative effect on the extensive margin. An increase in the host-country corporate tax rate reduces the actual FDI flows and the likelihood that such flows will occur. An increase in the source-country corporate tax rate reduces the likelihood of FDI flows. These predictions are confronted with data on FDI flows, drawn from the International Direct Investment dataset (Source OECD), covering the bilateral FDI flows among 18 OECD countries over the period 1987 to 2003. We find some support for the main predictions of the model.

Abstract:
We develop a framework in which the host country productivity has a positive effect on the intensive margin (the size of FDI flows), but only an ambiguous effect on the extensive margin (the likelihood of FDI flows to occur). The source-country productivity has a negative effect on the extensive margin. An increase in the host-country corporate tax rate reduces the actual FDI flows the likelihood of such flows to occur. An increase in the source-country corporate tax rate reduces the likelihood of FDI flows. These predictions are confronted with Data on FDI flows, drawn from the International Direct Investment dataset (Source OECD), covering the bilateral FDI flows among 18 OECD countries over the period 1987 to 2003. We find some support for the main predictions of the model.

Abstract:
This paper develops a model of an open economy which employs distortionary taxes to finance public consumption, and with an access to the world capital market. The paper examines the efficiency of quantity restrictions on capital exports and the accompanying set of taxes. A distinction is made between a benchmark case where the government can fully tax foreign-source income and a more realistic case where the government cannot effectively tax foreign-source income.

Abstract:
This paper develops a model of an open economy which employs distortionary taxes to finance public consumption, and with an access to the world capital market. The paper examines the efficiency of quantity restrictions on capital exports and the accompanying set of taxes. A distinction is made between a benchmark case where the government can fully tax foreign-source income and a more realistic case where the government cannot effectively tax foreign-source income.

Abstract:
The Mundell-Fleming model of international macroeconomics originated in the writings of Robert A. Mundell and J. Marcus Fleming in the early 1960s. The key contribution of the model has been a systematic analysis of the role played by international capital mobility in determining the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies under alternative exchange rate regimes. During the ensuing quarter century, the model was extended in various directions and is still the main "work horse" of traditional open-economy macroeconomics. This paper develops an exposition that integrates the various facets of the model and incorporates its extensions into a unified analytical framework. Attention is given to the distinction between short-run and long-run effects of policies, the implication of debt and tax financing of government expenditures, the role of the exchange rate regime in this regard, and debt revaluation and trade-balance revaluation effects associated with exchange rate changes. The resulting integration clarifies the key economic mechanisms operating in the Mundell-Fleming model and helps to identify its limitations. Among these is the neglect of intertemporal budget constraints and of the consequences of forward- looking behavior consistent with this constraint. The formulation in the paper casts the model in a manner that facilitates comparisons with more modern approaches. In so doing, the exposition provides a bridge between the traditional and the more modern approaches to international macroeconomics.

Abstract:
The Paper develops a model with lumpy setup costs of new investment, which govern the flows of FDI. Foreign investment decisions are two-fold: whether to export FDI and, if so, how much. The first decision is governed by total profitability considerations, whereas the second is governed by marginal profitability considerations. A positive productivity shock in the host country may, on the one hand, increases the volume of the desired FDI flows to the host country but, on the other hand, somewhat counter-intuitively, lowers the likelihood of the making new FDI flows by the source country, at all. Every country is potentially both a source for FDI flows to several host countries, and a host for FDI flows from several source countries. Thus, the model could generate two-way FDI flows, but not all source-host FDI flows get realized. We employ a sample of 24 OECD countries, over the period 1981-1998. We observe many pairs of countries with no FDI flows between them. Zero reported flows could indicate measurement errors, or true zeroes that are due to fixed costs (in situations where they dominate marginal productivity conditions). Empirical literature on the determinants of FDI flows that uses the Tobit procedure aims at a correction for measurement errors provides nevertheless biased estimates in the presence of fixed costs. By employing the Heckman selection procedure, we demonstrate how to get unbiased estimates of the fixed-costs effects on FDI flows. Controlling for the selection into source-host pairs of countries, and for time and country fixed effects, the Paper sheds light on the importance of several covariates, such as income per capita, education, and financial risk ratings as key determinants of volume of FDI flows. While the coefficients of both the source- and host-country average years of schooling are positive and significant in the flow equation, the magnitude of the source country coefficient is more than twice that of the host country. That is, the richer the source country is relative to the host country, the larger are the FDI flows that occur between them.

Fixed costs, FDI flows, productivity shocks

Abstract:
The paper develops a model with lumpy setup costs of new investment, which govern the flows of FDI. Foreign investment decisions are two-fold: whether to export FDI and, if so, how much. The first decision is governed by total profitability considerations, whereas the second is governed by marginal profitability considerations. A positive productivity shock in the host country may, on the one hand, increases the volume of the desired FDI flows to the host country but, on the other hand, somewhat counter-intuitively, lowers the likelihood of the making new FDI flows by the source country, at all. Every country is potentially both a source for FDI flows to several host countries, and a host for FDI flows from several source countries. Thus, the model could generate two-way FDI flows, but not all source-host FDI flows get realized. We employ a sample of 24 OECD countries, over the period 1981-1998. We observe many pairs of countries with no FDI flows between them. Zero reported flows could indicate measurement errors, or true zeroes that are due to fixed costs (in situations where they dominate marginal productivity conditions). Empirical literature on the determinants of FDI flows which uses the Tobit procedure aims at a correction for measurement errors provides nevertheless biased estimates in the presence of fixed costs. By employing the Heckman selection procedure, we demonstrate how to get unbiased estimates of the fixed-costs effects on FDI flows. Controlling for the selection into source-host pairs of countries, and for time and country fixed effects, the paper sheds light on the importance of several covariates, such as income per capita, education, and financial risk ratings as key determinants of volume of FDI flows. While the coefficients of both the source- and host-country average years of schooling are positive and significant in the flow equation, the magnitude of the source country coefficient is more than twice that of the host country. That is, the richer the source country is relative to the host country, the larger are the FDI flows which occur between them.

Abstract:
We analyze how globalization forces induce monetary authorities, guided in their policies by the welfare criterion of a representative household, to put greater emphasis on reducing the inflation rate than on narrowing the output gaps. Specifically, I demonstrate how the relative weight of the output gap term in a utility-based loss function shrinks when the economy is open to international trade in goods, and is integrated to the world capital markets.

Aggregate supply, trade openness, captial market openness, inflation-output tradeoff

Abstract:
The note analyzes how globalization forces induce monetary authorities, guided in their policies by the welfare criterion of a representative household, to put greater emphasis on reducing the inflation rate than on narrowing the output gaps.

Abstract:
The paper analyzes how globalization forces induce monetary authorities, guided in their policies by the welfare criterion of a representative household, to put a greater emphasis on reducing the inflation rate than on narrowing the output gaps. We demonstrate that with capital account liberalization the representative household is able to smooth fluctuations in consumption, and thus becomes relatively insensitive to fluctuations in the output gap. With trade liberalization the economy tends to specialize in the production of relatively few varieties of goods. The specialization in production as a result of trade openness increases the distortion originating from fluctuations in the inflation rate. Therefore, policymakers (guided by efficiency considerations) become more aggressive on inflation and less responsive to the output gap when trade and financial openness increases. We provide evidence on the effect on preferences towards fluctuations in the output gap and in inflation of trade and capital openness, which supports the theory predictions.

Abstract:
The paper analyzes how globalization forces induce monetary authorities, guided in their policies by the welfare criterion of a representative household, to put greater emphasis on reducing the inflation rate than on narrowing the output gaps. We demonstrate that the marginal rate of substitution between the output gap and the inflation (at a constant value of the utility-based loss function) rises when the economy is opening up to international trade in goods, and is integrated to the world capital markets. We associate the marginal rate of substitution with the sacrifice ratio, and provide evidence on trade and capital openness effects on inflation, through the efficiency channel.

Trade openness, capital-account openness, utility-based loss function

Abstract:
Identifying determinants of the output-inflation tradeoff has long been a key issue in business cycle research. We provide evidence that in countries with greater restrictions on capital mobility, a given reduction in the inflation rate is associated with a smaller loss in output. This result is shown to be consistent with theoretical presumption from a version of the Mundell-Fleming model. Restrictions on capital mobility are measured using the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. Estimates of the output-inflation tradeoff are taken from previous studies, viz., Lucas (1973) and Ball, Mankiw and Romer (1988).

Output-inflation tradeoff, capital mobility, capital controls, openness

Abstract:
This paper highlights the significance of open-economy considerations in the analysis of tax reforms. It focuses on domestic and international consequences of revenue-neutral conversion between income and value-added tax systems. The principal result is that the direction of changes in key macroeconomic variables consequent on such tax conversions depends critically on the current account position. For example, a conversion from an income to a value-added tax system lowers the world interest rate if the country adopting the reform runs a surplus in the current account of its balance of payments, and vice versa.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
The paper provides a unified analysis of globalization effects on the inflation-output tradeoff and monetary policy, in the New-Keynesian framework. The main proposition of the paper is threefold. First, labor, goods, and capital mobility tend to flatten the tradeoff between inflation and activity. Second, these globalization forces lead monetary policy to be more aggressive with regard to inflation fluctuations but, at the same time, more benign with respect to the output-gap fluctuations, when policy makers are guided by the welfare criterion of the representative household. Third, the equilibrium response of inflation to supply and demand shocks is more moderate, and the equilibrium response of the output gap to these shocks is more pronounced, when the economy opens up.

New-Keynesian Phillips curve, Migration, Trade in goods, Trade in financial assets, Interest rate policy rule

Abstract:
We develop a stylised model of multiple equilibria, with country risk spreads at the focus of the analysis. Fears that the country default on its debt triggers a reversal in the direction of inflows of international financial capital raise interest-rate spreads and thus the cost of servicing the public debt. The analytical framework is standard: creditors observe the output of borrowing only at a cost.

Costly-state verification, multiple self-fulfilling-expectations equilibria, debt crisis

Abstract:
We develop a model that captures important features of debt crises of the Brazilian type. Its applicability to Brazil lies in the fact that (1) in Brazil the macro fundamentals were sound (e.g., a primary surplus, a relatively low debt/GDP ratio, etc.); and (2) in the Brazilian case the trigger appears to be the forthcoming elections, with an expected regime change.

Abstract:
Migrants being relatively low earners are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. However this paper uses a dynamic model to show that because of migrants` positive influence on the pension system which is an important pillar of any welfare state migration could be beneficial to all income (high and low) and age (old and young) groups.

Low Skilled Migrants, Pay-As-You-Go Pension, Heterogenous Population, Overlapping Generations

Abstract:
Migration has important implications for the financial soundness of the pension system, which is an important pillar of the welfare state. While it is common sense to expect that young migrants, even if low-skilled, can help society pay the benefits to the currently elderly, it may nevertheless be reasonable to argue that these migrants would adversely affect current young since, after all, the migrants are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. In contrast to the adverse effects of low skilled migration in a static model in a Samuelsonian overlapping generations model that migration is a Pareto-improving measure. All the existing income (low and high) and age (young and old) groups living at the time of the migrant's arrival would be better off.

Abstract:
A financial crisis with a capital flow reversal occurs when a country shifts abruptly from a 'good' equilibrium with a low country-specific risk premium to a 'bad' equilibrium with a high country-specific risk premium and no foreign credit.

Abstract:
Migration of young workers (as distinct from retirees), even when driven in by the generosity of the welfare state, slows down the trend of increasing dependency ratio. But, even though low-skill migration improves the dependency ratio, it nevertheless burdens the welfare state. Recent studies by Smith and Edmonston (1977), and Sinn et al (2003) comprehensively estimate the fiscal burden that low-skill migration imposes on the fiscal system. However, an important message of this paper is that in an infinite-horizon set-up, one cannot fully grasp the implications of migration for the welfare state just by looking at the net fiscal burden that migrants impose on the fiscal system. In an infinite-horizon, overlapping generations economy, this net burden could change to net gain to the native-born population.

migration, welfare state, fiscal burden

Abstract:
We develop a simple information-based model of FDI flows. On the one hand, the abundance of 'intangible' capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other hand, host-country corporate-transparency diminishes the value of this expertise thereby reducing the flow of FDI. Empirical evidence (from a sample of 12 source countries and 45 host countries over the 1980s and 1990s) analyzed in a gravity-equation model, provides support to the theoretical hypotheses. The model also demonstrates that the gains for the host country from foreign direct investment [over foreign portfolio investment (FPI)] are reflected in a more efficient size of the stock of domestic capital and its allocation across firms. These gains are shown to depend crucially (and positively) on the degree of competition among FDI investors.

Abstract:
The paper provides an overview of the role of the fiscal imbalances and the ensuing public debt in explaining major episodes in Israel`s recent economic developments. The main conclusions from the Israeli budgetary developments may have more general validity: (a) deficits lead to inflation and stopping inflation requires elimination of deficits; (b) a major effect of inflation is a large shift of the tax burden from capital to labor; and (c) shocks to labor supply, such as massive labor inflow through immigration, can be absorbed without worsening government finances, when the labor and the housing markets are sufficiently flexible.

Abstract:
Data for the United States and countries in Western Europe indicate a negative correlation between the dependency ratio and both labor tax rates and the generosity of social transfers, after controlling for other factors that influence the size of the welfare state. This is the case despite the increased political clout of the dependent population implied by the aging of the population. This paper develops a model of intra-and inter-generational transfers and human capital formation which addresses this seeming puzzle. We show that with democratic voting, a higher dependency ratio can lead to lower taxes or less generous social transfers.

aging, dependency ratio, political economy, labor tax

Abstract:
In the presence of lumpy adjustment costs of investment, globalization may have non-conventional effects on the level of investment and its cyclical behaviour. Free trade may lead to a discrete 'jump' in the level of investment, as it triggers discrete terms-of-trade changes which either appreciate or depreciate the setup cost of investment. As a result, the economy may alternate between 'optimistic' and 'pessimistic' expectations and self-validating boom and bust investment cycles. There could be substantial gains from globalization in the investment-boom equilibrium and meager, or negative, gains in the investment-bust equilibrium.

Lumpy adjustment cost, multiple equilibrium, boom-bust investment cycles

Abstract:
In the presence of lumpy investment cost of adjustment, globalization may have non-conventional effects on the level of investment and its cyclical behavior. Trade openness may lead to a discrete 'jump' in the level of investment, as it may trigger a discrete change in the terms of trade. Such a shift creates a sizeable boost in aggregate investment. But trade openness may also lead to boom-bust cycles of investment (namely, multiple equilibrium) supported by self-validating expectations. In this sense globalization destabilizes the economy. There can be substantial gains from globalization in the investment-boom equilibrium. However, gains could be small, or negative, in the investment-bust equilibrium.

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to implement empirically the new theory of exchange rate targeting. The theory formulates an expectations induced relationship between the exchange rate and the fundamental subject to random shocks and target zone constraints. By using monthly data for a representative small-open economy (Israel in the 1980s) the empirical analysis identifies the special roled played by policy and market fundamentals in the behavior of the exchange rate.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper studies the fiscal restructuring of the first half of the 1990s in the major industrial countries. It presents and calibrates a simple model of the labor market and integrates it into a multi-country macroeconomic model that takes into account the effects of distortionary taxes. It then uses the resulting framework to simulate the effects of recent and prospective changes in fiscal policies in the group of seven major industrial countries. The analysis suggests that in the long run the impact on output is likely to be positive in those countries that relied relatively more on expenditure cuts or indirect tax increases (such as Canada, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom), while the effect of the fiscal restructuring on output is estimated to be negative in those countries that relied primarily on labor and capital taxes (Germany, Italy, and the United States).

Abstract:
A number of developing countries have run large and persistent current account deficits in both the late seventies/early eighties and in the early nineties, raising the issue of whether these persistent imbalances are sustainable. This paper puts forward a notion of current account sustainability and compares the experience of three Latin American countries -- Chile, Colombia and Mexico -- and three East Asian countries--Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. It identifies a number of potential sustainability indicators and discusses their usefulness in predicting external crises.

Abstract:
A number of developing countries have run large and persistent current account deficits in both the late 1970s/ early 1980s and in the early 1990s, raising the issue of whether these persistent imbalances are sustainable. This paper puts forward a notion of current account sustainability and compares the experience of three Latin American countries --Chile, Colombia and Mexico--and three East Asian countries --Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. It identifies a number of potential sustainability indicators and discusses their usefulness in predicting external crises.

Abstract:
The paper brings out the special mechanism through which taxes influence bilateral FDI, when investment decisions are two-fold in the presence of fixed setup flows costs. For each pair of source-host countries, there is a set of factors determining whether aggregate FDI flows will occur at all, and a different set of factors determining the volume of FDI flows (provided that they occur). We demonstrate that the notion that the mere international tax differentials are a key factor behind the direction and magnitude of FDI flows is too simple. We argue that the source country tax rate works primarily on the selection process, whereas the host-country tax rate affect mainly the magnitude of the FDI, once they occur. We analyze international panel data with 24 OECD countries over the period 1981-1998 by the Heckman selection method to bring evidence in support of this argument.

Abstract:
This paper considers the financing of investment in the presence of asymmetric information between the 'insiders' and the 'outsiders' of the firms in a small open economy. It establishes a well-defined capital structure for the economy as a whole with the following features: low-productivity firms rely on the equity market to finance investment at a relatively low level; medium-productivity firms do not invest at all; and high-productivity firms rely on the debt market to finance investment at a relatively high level. It is shown that the debt market is efficient, with respect to both its scope and the amount of investment that each firm makes. However, the equity market fails: its scope is too narrow and the investment each firm makes is too little. A corrective policy requires just one instrument which is rather unconventional: lump-sum subsidies to those firms that choose to equity-finance their investment (i.e., equity-market-contingent grants).

Abstract:
This paper tackles two established puzzles in international macroeconomics literature. The first is the lack of systematic differences in the macroeconomic performance across exchange rate regimes. The second is the absence of a clear empirical relationship between macroeconomic performance and capital-account liberalization. We suggest that these negative findings may be due to empirical methods that fail to account for a latent economic 'crisis state', influenced by exchange-rate and capital account regimes, and to allow that latent variable to influence the growth effects of policy regimes. In practice, we model and estimate the latent state of the economy as a crisis probability. Our proposed framework of analysis allows exchange rate and capital-market liberalization regimes to have both a direct effect on short-term growth, and an indirect effect on growth that is channelled through their effects on the crisis probability. The empirical decomposition of the total effect into two conflicting effects helps resolve the puzzles.

Abstract:
This paper tackles two established puzzles in international macroeconomics literature. The first is the lack of systematic difference in the macroeconomic performance across exchange rate regimes. The second is the absence of a clear empirical relationship between macroeconomic performance and capital-account liberalization. We suggest that both may appear because empirical methodologies fail to account for a latent economic crisis state, influenced by exchange-rate and capital account regimes, and to allow the effects of a policy regime on growth to depend on whether the economy is in a crisis-prone latent state. In practice, we model and estimate the latent state of the economy as a crisis probability. In the framework we propose, exchange rate and capital market liberalization regimes can have both a direct effect on short-term growth, and an indirect effect on growth that is channelled through their effects on the crisis probability.

Abstract:
This paper develops a rigorous analytical framework suitable for the analysis of the effects of spending and tax policies on the world economy. It modifies the conventional conclusions according to which a budget deficit or a temporary current rise in government spending typically tend to raise interest rates. It is shown that by incorporating nontradable goods and distortionary taxes the direction of the effects of fiscal policies on interest rates and real exchange rates depend upon the timing and composition of government spending and on whether the budget deficit is financed through Income or value added taxes.

Abstract:
The Paper derives an open economy New-Keynesian Phillips curve. The Phillips curve depends on growth in the domestic economy excess capacity, differential growth between foreign output and domestic output, and on the surprise depreciation of the real exchange rate. The Paper provides new evidence on the effect of globalization of the economy, in both the trade and capital transactions, in the Phillips curve. The evidence is consistent with the predictions of the theory.

Sacrifice ratios, Phillips curve, new Keynesian Phillips curve, strategic interactions among price setters, imperfect competition in the product market

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
International-capital market integration has become a key policy issue in the prospective integration of Europe of 1992. In this context this paper provides a theoretical analysis of the effects of relaxing restrictions on the international flow of capital on the fiscal branch of government: the optimal provision of public goods, the structure of taxation and income redistribution policies. Concerning issues of interdependent economies the paper analyzes the scope of tax coordination. The major findings are: (a) with no administrative barriers to capital flows the optimal policy is to tax income from investment abroad and from investments at home at the same time; (b) the cost of public funds falls and the supply of public goods rises if restrictions on international capital flows are relaxed: (c) the amount of income redistributions increases with the international capital market liberalization; (d) some minimal degree of tax coordination (such as origin-based or source-based tax schemes) is essential for the existence of an equilibrium in an integrated world economy.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
The Paper extends Woodford's (2000) analysis of the closed economy Phillips curve to an open economy with both commodity trade and capital mobility. We show that consumption smoothing, which comes with the opening of the capital market, raises the degree of strategic complementarity among monopolistic competitive suppliers, thus rendering prices more sticky and magnifying output responses to nominal GDP shocks.

Phillips curve, new Keynesian, trade, capital mobility

Abstract:
We establish an empirical regularity that a weak creditor protection index is associated with high stock price volatility. Using a standard Tobin Q model we demonstrate two distinct mechanisms that are responsible for increased volatility: credit guarantees and weak creditor protection that tightens credit constraints. In a panel of OECD and non OECD countries we attempt to identify the effects of these distinct mechanisms on stock price volatility while taking explicit account of events of financial crises. We find that both mechanisms are responsible for the stock price volatility in the data.

Credit guarantees, credit constraints, credit growth volatility, stock price volatility

Abstract:
We find an empirical regularity that stronger creditor protection reduces the volatility of stock market prices. We analyze two distinct mechanisms that characterize equity price volatility: government guarantees and creditor protection. Using a Tobin q model, we demonstrate that weak creditor protection that gives rise to government guarantees and tightens credit constraints, increases stock price volatility. Empirically, accounting for the probability of financial crises, we find that government guarantees and weak institutions that tighten credit constraints increase aggregated stock price volatility.

Abstract:
The behavior of taxes on capital income in the recent decades points to the notion that international tax competition that follows globalization of capital markets put strong downward pressures on the taxation of capital income; a race to the bottom. This behavior has been perhaps most pronounced in the EU-15 following the single market act of 1992. The 2004 enlargement of the EU with 10 new entrants put a strong downward pressure on capital income taxation for the EU-15 countries. Tax havens, and the inadequacy of cooperation among national tax authorities in the OECD in information exchanges, put binding ceilings on how much foreign-source capital income can be taxed. What then are the implications for the taxes on domestic-source capital income? The paper demonstrates that even if some enforcement of taxation on foreign-source capital income is feasible, a poor enforcement of international taxes would generate political processes that would reduce significantly the domestic-source capital income taxation.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Vários países em desenvolvimento apresentaram déficits em conta corrente vultosos e persistentes no fim da década de 1970/início da década de 1980 e início da década de 90, o que levantou dúvidas sobre a sustentabilidade desses desequilíbrios constantes. Este documento expõe um conceito de sustentabilidade da conta corrente e compara as experiências de três países latino-americanos  Chile, Colômbia e México  e de três países do Leste Asiático  Coréia, Malásia e Tailândia. Além disso, identifica vários indicadores potenciais de sustentabilidade e discute sua utilidade na previsão de crises externas.

Abstract:
We develop a model that captures important features of debt crises of the Brazilian type. Its applicability to Brazil lies in the fact that (1) macro fundamentals were sound in the wake of the crisis (e.g., a non-negligible primary surplus, a relatively low debt/GDP ratio, low inflation, etc.); and (2) the trigger for the crisis appears to be the forthcoming elections, with an expected regime change.

Abstract:
Milton Friedman, the Nobel-prize laureate economist, had it right: "It's just obvious that you can't have free immigration and a welfare state." That is, national welfare states can almost never coexist with the free movement of labor. This fact underscores the relevance of the analysis in this paper, which is a part of a forthcoming book on migration and the welfare state. It focuses on the demographic, and economic, fundamentals behind policy-restricted migration, and the policy-restricted generosity of the welfare state.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
A positive productivity shock in the host country tends typically to increase the volume of the desired foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the host country, through the standard marginal profitability effect. But, at the same time, such a shock may lower the likelihood of making any new FDI flows by the source country, through a total profitability effect, derived from the a general-equilibrium increase in domestic input prices. This is the gist of the theory that we develop in the article. For a sample of 62 OECD and non-OECD countries over the period 1987–2000, we provide supporting evidence for the existence of such conflicting effects of productivity changes on bilateral FDI flows. We also uncover sizeable threshold barriers in our data set. (JEL codes: F2, F3)

FDI, productivity, threshold barriers

Abstract:
A positive productivity shock in the host country tends typically to increase the volume of the desired FDI flows to the host country, through the standard marginal profitability effect. But, at the same time, such a shock may lower the likelihood of making any new FDI flows by the source country, through a total profitability effect, derived from the a general-equilibrium increase in domestic input prices. This is the gist of the theory that we develop in the paper. For a sample of 62 OECD and Non-OECD countries over the period 1987-2000, we provide supporting evidence for the existence of such conflicting effects of productivity change on bilateral FDI flows. We also uncover sizeable threshold barriers in our data set and link the analysis to the Lucas Paradox.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
The pay-as-you-go social security system, burdened by dwindling labour force, can benefit from immigrants, with birth rates that exceed the native-born birth rates. Thus, the social security system effectively provides an incentive to liberalize migration policy through a political-economy mechanism. The paper examines a dynamic political-economy mechanism through which the social security system influences the young decisive voter's attitudes in favour of a more liberal immigration regime. A Markov equilibrium with social security consists of a more liberal migration policy, than a corresponding equilibrium with no social security.

Demographic Imbalance, Pay-As-You-Go Social Security System, Repeated Voting