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Abstract:
We review the burgeoning literature on the employment effects of minimum wages - in the United States and other countries - that was spurred by the new minimum wage research beginning in the early 1990s. Our review indicates that there is a wide range of existing estimates and, accordingly, a lack of consensus about the overall effects on low-wage employment of an increase in the minimum wage. However, the oft-stated assertion that recent research fails to support the traditional view that the minimum wage reduces the employment of low-wage workers is clearly incorrect. A sizable majority of the studies surveyed in this monograph give a relatively consistent (although not always statistically significant) indication of negative employment effects of minimum wages. In addition, among the papers we view as providing the most credible evidence, almost all point to negative employment effects, both for the United States as well as for many other countries. Two other important conclusions emerge from our review. First, we see very few - if any - studies that provide convincing evidence of positive employment effects of minimum wages, especially from those studies that focus on the broader groups (rather than a narrow industry) for which the competitive model predicts disemployment effects. Second, the studies that focus on the least-skilled groups provide relatively overwhelming evidence of stronger disemployment effects for these groups.

minimum wage, employment

Abstract:
Although the debate over Affirmative Action is both high-profile and high-intensity, neither side's position is based on a well-established set of research findings. Economics provides an extensive, well-known literature on which to draw regarding the existence and extent of labor market discrimination against women and minorities, although views may often conflict, and a less extensive but also well-known literature on the effects of Affirmative Action on the employment of women or minorities. However, research by economists provides much less evidence and even less of a consensus on the question of whether Affirmative Action improves or impedes efficiency or performance, which is perhaps the key economic issue in the debate over Affirmative Action. This review focuses on all of these issues regarding Affirmative Action, but the major focus is on the efficiency/performance question. All in all, the evidence suggests to us that it may be possible to generate Affirmative Action programs that entail relatively little sacrifice of efficiency. Most importantly, there is at this juncture very little compelling evidence of deleterious efficiency effects of Affirmative Action. This does not imply that such costs do not exist, nor that the studies we review have captured the overall welfare effects of Affirmative Action. It does imply, though, that the empirical case against Affirmative Action on the grounds of efficiency is weak at best.

Abstract:
We estimate the effects of Wal-Mart stores on county-level retail employment and earnings, accounting for endogeneity of the location and timing of Wal-Mart openings that most likely biases the evidence against finding adverse effects of Wal-Mart stores. We address the endogeneity problem using a natural instrumental variables approach that arises from the geographic and time pattern of the opening of Wal-Mart stores, which slowly spread out from the first stores in Arkansas. The employment results indicate that a Wal-Mart store opening reduces county-level retail employment by about 150 workers, implying that each Wal-Mart worker replaces approximately 1.4 retail workers. This represents a 2.7 percent reduction in average retail employment. The payroll results indicate that Wal-Mart store openings lead to declines in county-level retail earnings of about $1.2 million, or 1.3 percent. Of course, these effects occurred against a backdrop of rising retail employment, and only imply lower retail employment growth than would have occurred absent the effects of Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart, location, employment

Abstract:
We estimate the effects of Wal-Mart stores on county-level retail employment and earnings, accounting for endogeneity of the location and timing of Wal-Mart openings that most likely biases the evidence against finding adverse effects of Wal-Mart stores. We address the endogeneity problem using a natural instrumental variables approach that arises from the geographic and time pattern of the opening of Wal-Mart stores, which slowly spread out from the first stores in Arkansas. The employment results indicate that a Wal-Mart store opening reduces county-level retail employment by about 150 workers, implying that each Wal-Mart worker replaces approximately 1.4 retail workers. This represents a 2.7 percent reduction in average retail employment. The payroll results indicate that Wal-Mart store openings lead to declines in county-level retail earnings of about $1.4 million, or 1.5 percent. Of course, these effects occurred against a backdrop of rising retail employment, and only imply lower retail employment growth than would have occurred absent the effects of Wal-Mart.

Abstract:
Exposure to minimum wages at young ages may lead to longer-run effects. Among the possible adverse longer-run effects are decreased labor market experience and accumulation of tenure, lower current labor supply because of lower wages, and diminished training and skill acquisition. Beneficial longer-run effects could arise if minimum wages increase skill acquisition, or if short-term wage increases are long-lasting. We estimate the longer-run effects of minimum wages by using information on the minimum wage history that workers have faced since potentially entering the labor market. The evidence indicates that even as individuals reach their late 20`s, they work less and earn less the longer they were exposed to a higher minimum wage, especially as a teenager. The adverse longer-run effects of facing high minimum wages as a teenager are stronger for blacks. From a policy perspective, these longer-run effects of minimum wages are likely more significant than the contemporaneous effects of minimum wages on youths that are the focus of most research and policy debate.

Abstract:
Exposure to minimum wages at young ages may lead to longer-run effects. Among the possible adverse longer-run effects are decreased labor market experience and accumulation of tenure, lower current labor supply because of lower wages, and diminished training and skill acquisition. Beneficial longer-run effects could arise if minimum wages increase skill acquisition, or if short-term wage increases are long-lasting. We estimate the longer-run effects of minimum wages by using information on the minimum wage history that workers have faced since potentially entering the labor market. The evidence indicates that even as individuals reach their late 20's, they earn less and perhaps work less the longer they were exposed to a higher minimum wage, especially as a teenager. The adverse longer-run effects of facing high minimum wages as a teenager are stronger for blacks. From a policy perspective, these longer-run effects of minimum wages are likely more significant than the contemporaneous effects of minimum wages on youths that are the focus of most research and policy debate.

Minimum wages, employment, longer-run

Abstract:
Wage gaps between individuals of difference races, sexes, and ethnicities have been documented and replicated extensively, and have generated a long history in labor economics research of empirical tests for labor market discrimination. The most widely-used approach to test for labor market discrimination is based on wage regressions estimated at the level of individual workers, with the estimate of discrimination inferred from the residual race, sex, or ethnic group differential in wages that remains unexplained after including a wide array of proxies for productivity. What is absent from the residual wage approach - and in our view leaves the approach vulnerable to being regarded as uninformative regarding discrimination - is any directly observable measure of productivity with which to adjust differentials in wages in trying to infer whether a particular group suffers from discrimination. The ideal solution would be individual-level productivity data that can be compared with wages. Any of the variables that differ across groups and are unobserved in the residual wage regression approach should affect wages and productivity equally, and hence not bias the test. However, such data are extremely rare, in large part because individual productivity is often unobservable and seldom measured. This chapter focuses on the use of matched employer-employee data sets to carry out a version of this ideal test, but at the establishment level. When these data sets permit the measurement of the demographic characteristics of establishments' workforces, as well as the estimation of production functions, they can be used to infer productivity differentials between workers in different groups. Comparisons of these productivity differentials with wage differentials then provide versions of the ideal test for discrimination at the establishment level. In addition to providing tests of discrimination, matched employer-employee data sets have proven useful in studying other questions that arise in the economics of discrimination, including measuring labor market segregation and assessing its consequences, and examining hypotheses or predictions that are central to economic models of discrimination.

Abstract:
We study the effects of minimum wages and the EITC in the post-welfare reform era. For the minimum wage, the evidence points to disemployment effects that are concentrated among young minority men. For young women, there is little evidence that minimum wages reduce employment, with the exception of high school dropouts. In contrast, evidence strongly suggests that the EITC boosts employment of young women (although not teenagers). We also explore how minimum wages and the EITC interact, and the evidence reveals policy effects that vary substantially across different groups. For example, higher minimum wages appear to reduce earnings of minority men, and more so when the EITC is high. In contrast, our results indicate that the EITC boosts employment and earnings for minority women, and coupling the EITC with a higher minimum wage appears to enhance this positive effect. Thus, whether or not the policy combination of a high EITC and a high minimum wage is viewed as favorable or unfavorable depends in part on whose incomes policymakers are trying to increase.

minimum wage, Earned Income Tax Credit, welfare reform, employment

Abstract:
We study the effects of minimum wages and the EITC in the post-welfare reform era. For the minimum wage, the evidence points to disemployment effects that are concentrated among young minority men. For young women, there is little evidence that minimum wages reduce employment, with the exception of high school dropouts. In contrast, evidence strongly suggests that the EITC boosts employment of young women (although not teenagers). We also explore how minimum wages and the EITC interact, and the evidence reveals policy effects that vary substantially across different groups. For example, higher minimum wages appear to reduce earnings of minority men, and more so when the EITC is high. In contrast, our results indicate that the EITC boosts employment and earnings for minority women, and coupling the EITC with a higher minimum wage appears to enhance this positive effect. Thus, whether or not the policy combination of a high EITC and a high minimum wage is viewed as favorable or unfavorable depends in part on whose incomes policymakers are trying to increase.

Abstract:
We estimate the employment effects of changes in national minimum wages using a pooled cross-section time-series data set comprising 17 OECD countries for the period 1975-2000, focusing on the impactof cross-country differences in minimum wage systems and in otherlabor market institutions and policies that may either offset or amplify the effects of minimum wages. The average minimum wage effects we estimate using this sample are consistent with the view that minimum wages cause employment losses among youths. However, the evidence also suggests that the employment effects of minimum wages vary considerably across countries. In particular, disemployment effects of minimum wages appear to be smaller in countries that have subminimum wage provisions for youths. Regarding other labor market policies and institutions, we find that more restrictive labor standards and higher union coverage strengthen the disemployment effects of minimum wages, while employment protection laws and active labor market policies designed to bring unemployed individuals into the work force help to offset these effects. Overall, the disemployment effects of minimum wages are strongest in the countries with the least regulated labor markets.

Minimum wages, youth employment, labor market institutions

Abstract:
We present evidence on the contributions of business establishment dynamics - including births and deaths, expansions and contractions, and in- and out-migration - to employment growth (and decline). We use data from the National Establishment Time Series for California to estimate the contribution of each of these processes to employment growth. The evidence indicates that births of new business establishments and expansion of existing ones, coupled with their counterparts of deaths and contractions of existing establishments, are the prime determinants of employment growth. Business relocation, while often the focus of public debate regarding the business climate, plays a negligible role. Overall, business establishment births and deaths are the largest contributors to job creation and destruction, and births of new firms are particularly important in gross and net job creation.

Abstract:
We review the burgeoning literature on the employment effects of minimum wages - in the United States and other countries - that was spurred by the new minimum wage research beginning in the early 1990s. Our review indicates that there is a wide range of existing estimates and, accordingly, a lack of consensus about the overall effects on low-wage employment of an increase in the minimum wage. However, the oft-stated assertion that recent research fails to support the traditional view that the minimum wage reduces the employment of low-wage workers is clearly incorrect. A sizable majority of the studies surveyed in this monograph give a relatively consistent (although not always statistically significant) indication of negative employment effects of minimum wages. In addition, among the papers we view as providing the most credible evidence, almost all point to negative employment effects, both for the United States as well as for many other countries. Two other important conclusions emerge from our review. First, we see very few - if any - studies that provide convincing evidence of positive employment effects of minimum wages, especially from those studies that focus on the broader groups (rather than a narrow industry) for which the competitive model predicts disemployment effects. Second, the studies that focus on the least-skilled groups provide relatively overwhelming evidence of stronger disemployment effects for these groups.

Abstract:
Many cities in the United States have recently passed living wage ordinances. These ordinances typically mandate that businesses under contract with the city or, in some cases, receiving assistance from the city, must pay their workers a wage sufficient to support a family financially. To date, there has been no empirical analysis of the actual effects of living wages on the expected beneficiaries low-wage workers and their families. In this paper, we estimate the effects of city living wage ordinances on the wages and hours of workers in cities that have adopted such legislation. We also look at the effects of the ordinances on employment and poverty rates in these cities. Our findings indicate that living wage ordinances boost wages of low-wage workers. The estimated elasticities are small, however, which seems consistent with the fact that living wages have limited coverage, and may also have limited compliance and enforcement. In addition to the wage effects, we find weak negative hours effects of living wage ordinances on low-wage workers, and strong negative employment effects. Finally, our estimates of the effects of living wages on poverty rates indicate that living wage ordinances may help to achieve modest reductions in urban poverty.

Abstract:
We analyze and assess new evidence on employment dynamics from a new data source - the National Establishment Time Series (NETS). The NETS offers advantages over existing data sources for studying employment dynamics, including tracking business establishment relocations that can contribute to job creation or destruction on a regional level. Our primary purpose in this paper is to assess the reliability of the NETS data along a number of dimensions, and we conclude that it is a reliable data source although not without limitations. We also illustrate the usefulness of the NETS data by reporting, for California, a full decomposition of employment change into its six constituent processes, including job creation and destruction stemming from business relocation, which has figured prominently in policy debates but on which there has been no systematic evidence.

job creation, job destruction, employment dynamics, business relocation

Abstract:
We analyze and assess new evidence on employment dynamics from a new data source %uF818 the National Establishment Time Series (NETS). The NETS offers advantages over existing data sources for studying employment dynamics, including tracking business establishment relocations that can contribute to job creation or destruction on a regional level. Our primary purpose in this paper is to assess the reliability of the NETS data along a number of dimensions, and we conclude that it is a reliable data source although not without limitations. We also illustrate the usefulness of the NETS data by reporting, for California, a full decomposition of employment change into its six constituent processes, including job creation and destruction stemming from business relocation, which has figured prominently in policy debates but on which there has been no systematic evidence.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
Living wage campaigns have succeeded in about 100 jurisdictions in the United States but have also been unsuccessful in numerous cities. These unsuccessful campaigns provide a better control group or counterfactual for estimating the effects of living wage laws than the broader set of all cities without a law, and also permit the separate estimation of the effects of living wage laws and living wage campaigns. We find that living wage laws raise wages of low-wage workers but reduce employment among the least-skilled, especially when the laws cover business assistance recipients or are accompanied by similar laws in nearby cities.

Living wages, wages, employment

Abstract:
We study a set of programs implemented in Philadelphia high schools that focus on boosting post-secondary enrollment. These programs are less career oriented than traditional school-to-work programs, but are consistent with the broadening of the goals of school-to-work to emphasize post-secondary education. The Philadelphia Longitudinal Educational Study (PELS) data set that we examine contains an unusually large amount of information on individuals prior to placement in STC programs. We use the detailed information in the PELS to study the process of selection into these programs and to examine their impact on a set of mainly schooling-related outcomes during and after high school, although we also consider their impact on non-academic outcomes. The data point to positive effects of these programs on high school graduation and on both academic and non-academic awards in high school, and similar negative effects on dropping out of high school. The results also suggest positive effects on aspirations for higher education and on college attendance. In addition, there is some evidence that these programs are more effective in increasing college attendance and aspirations among at-risk youths.

Abstract:
We study a set of programs implemented in Philadelphia high schools that focus on boosting post-secondary enrollment. These programs are less career oriented than traditional school-to-work programs, but are consistent with the broadening of the goals of school-to-work to emphasize post-secondary education. The Philadelphia Longitudinal Educational Study (PELS) data set that we examine contains an unusually large amount of information on individuals prior to placement in STC programs. We use the detailed information in the PELS to study the process of selection into these programs and to examine their impact on a set of mainly schooling-related outcomes during and after high school, although we also consider their impact on non-academic outcomes. The data point to positive effects of these programs on high school graduation and on both academic and non-academic awards in high school, and similar negative effects on dropping out of high school. The results also suggest positive effects on aspirations for higher education and on college attendance. In addition, there is some evidence that these programs are more effective in increasing college attendance and aspirations among at-risk youths.

School-to-career, education

Abstract:
We study workplace segregation in the United States using a unique matched employer-employee data set that we have created. We present measures of workplace segregation by education and language - as skilled workers may be more complementary with other skilled workers than with unskilled workers - and by race and ethnicity, using simulation methods to measure segregation beyond what would occur randomly as workers are distributed across establishments. We also assess the role of education - and language-related skill differentials in generating workplace segregation by race and ethnicity, as skill is often correlated with race and ethnicity. Finally, we attempt to distinguish between segregation by skill based on general crowding of unskilled poor English speakers into a narrow set of jobs, and segregation based on common language for reasons such as complementarity among workers speaking the same language. Our results indicate that there is considerable segregation by education and language in the workplace. Racial segregation in the workplace is of the same order of magnitude as education segregation, and segregation between Hispanics and whites is larger yet. Only a tiny portion of racial segregation in the workplace is driven by education differences between blacks and whites, but a substantial fraction of ethnic segregation in the workplace can be attributed to differences in language proficiency.

Abstract:
We study workplace segregation in the United States using a unique matched employer employee data set that we have created. We present measures of workplace segregation by education and language, and by race and ethnicity, and - since skill is often correlated with race and ethnicity we assess the role of education - and language-related skill differentials in generating workplace segregation by race and ethnicity. We define segregation based on the extent to which workers are more or less likely to be in workplaces with members of the same group, and we measure segregation as the observed percentage relative to maximum segregation. Our results indicate that there is considerable segregation by education and language in the workplace. Among whites, for example, observed segregation by education is 17% (of the maximum), and for Hispanics, observed segregation by language ability is 29%. Racial (blackwhite) segregation in the workplace is of a similar magnitude to education segregation (14%), and ethnic (Hispanic-white) segregation is somewhat higher (20%). Only a tiny portion (3%) of racial segregation in the workplace is driven by education differences between blacks and whites, but a substantial fraction of ethnic segregation in the workplace (32%) can be attributed to differences in language proficiency. Finally, additional evidence suggests that segregation by language likely reflects complementarity among workers speaking the same language.

Segregation, skills, discrimination

Abstract:
This paper tests whether school-to-work (STW) programs are particularly beneficial for those less likely to go to college in their absence - often termed the forgotten half in the STW literature. The empirical analysis is based on the NLSY97, which allows us to study six types of STW programs, including job shadowing, mentoring, coop, school enterprises, tech prep, and internships/apprenticeships. For men there is quite a bit of evidence that STW program participation is particularly advantageous for those in the forgotten half. For these men, specifically, mentoring and coop programs increase post-secondary education, and coop, school enterprise, and internship/apprenticeship programs boost employment and decrease idleness after leaving high school. There is less evidence that STW programs are particularly beneficial for women in the forgotten half, although internship/apprenticeship programs do lead to positive earnings effects concentrated among these women.

school-to-career, school-to-work, education, employment

Abstract:
Legislation prohibiting age discrimination in the United States dates back to the decade of the 1960s, when along with the Equal Pay Act and the Civil Rights Act barring discrimination against women and minorities, the U.S. Congress passed the 1967 Age Discrimination in Employment Act. Many critical issues regarding the rationale for or effectiveness of age discrimination legislation have been addressed, and continue to be studied, by researchers in both economics and law, while many questions remain. These questions are likely to become increasingly important as rapidly aging workforces in the United States and other industrialized countries threaten to vastly increase the social costs of any barriers to older workers' employment.

This paper provides a summary, critical review, and synthesis of what we know about age discrimination legislation. It first traces out the legislative history and the evolving case law, and discusses implementation of the law. It then moves on to review the existing research on age discrimination legislation research that addresses the rationale for the legislation, evidence on its effectiveness, and criticisms of age discrimination legislation.

Abstract:
I synthesize and summarize a set of recent papers on changes in the employment relationship. The authors of these papers present the most up-to-date and accurate assessment of their evidence on changes in job stability and job security, and attempt to reconcile their evidence with the findings of other research, including the other papers discussed herein. Some of the papers also begin to explore explanations of changes in the employment relationship. The evidence suggests that the 1990's witnessed some changes in the employment relationship consistent with weakened bonds between workers and firms. But the magnitudes of these changes indicate that while these bonds may have weakened, they have not been broken. Furthermore, the changes that occurred in the 1990's have not persisted very long. It is therefore premature to infer long-term trends towards declines in long-term employment relationships, and even more so to infer anything like the disappearance of long-term, secure jobs. The papers examining sources of changes in job stability and job security in the 1990's point to some potential explanations, including relative wage movements, growth in alternative employment relationships, and downsizing. However, with the possible exception of the first of these, this list does not encompass "fundamental" or exogenous changes impacting the employment relationship, but rather to some extent suggests how various changes in the employment relationship may reinforce each other. Understanding the structural changes underlying empirical observations on changes in job stability and job security is likely to be a fruitful frontier for future research on the employment relationship.

Abstract:
The primary goal of a national minimum wage floor is to raise the incomes of poor or near-poor families with members in the work force. However, estimates of employment effects of minimum wages tell us little about whether minimum wages are can achieve this goal; even if the disemployment effects of minimum wages are modest, minimum wage increases could result in net income losses for poor families. We present evidence on the effects of minimum wages on family incomes from matched March CPS surveys, focusing on the effectiveness of minimum wages in reducing poverty. The results show that over a one-to-two year period, minimum wages increase both the probability that poor families escape poverty and the probability that previously non-poor families fall into poverty. The estimated increase in the number of non-poor families that fall into poverty is larger than the estimated increase in the number of poor families that escape poverty, though this difference is not statistically significant. We also find that minimum wages tend to boost the incomes of poor families that remain below the poverty line. The evidence indicates that in the wake of minimum wage increases, some families gain and others lose. On net, the various tradeoffs created by minimum wage increases more closely resemble income redistribution among low-income families than income redistribution from high- to low-income families. Given these findings it is difficult to make a distributional or equity argument for minimum wages.

Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on a wide set of margins along which labor markets can adjust in response to increases in the minimum wage, including wages, hours, employment, and ultimately labor income, representing the central margins of adjustment that impact the economic well-being of workers potentially affected by minimum wage increases. The evidence indicates that workers initially earning near the minimum wage are adversely affected by minimum wage increases, while, not surprisingly, higher-wage workers are little affected. Although wages of low-wage workers increase , their hours and employment decline, and the combined effect of these changes is a decline in earned income. We also delve into the political economy of minimum wages, attempting to understand the vigorous support of labor unions for minimum wage increases. Using the same empirical framework, we find that relatively low-wage union members gain at the expense of the lowest-wage nonunion workers when minimum wages increase.

Abstract:
We present evidence on changes in workplace segregation by education, race, ethnicity, and sex, from 1990 to 2000. The evidence indicates that racial and ethnic segregation at the workplace level remained quite pervasive in 2000. At the same time, there was fairly substantial segregation by skill, as measured by education. Putting together the 1990 and 2000 data, we find no evidence of declines in workplace segregation by race and ethnicity; indeed, black-white segregation increased. Over this decade, segregation by education also increased. In contrast, workplace segregation by sex fell over the decade, and would have fallen by more had the services industry - a heavily female industry in which sex segregation is relatively high - not experienced rapid employment growth.

segregation, education, race, ethnicity, sex

Abstract:
We present evidence on changes in workplace segregation by education, race, ethnicity, and sex, from 1990 to 2000. The evidence indicates that racial and ethnic segregation at the workplace level remained quite pervasive in 2000. At the same time, there was fairly substantial segregation by skill, as measured by education. Putting together the 1990 and 2000 data, we find no evidence of declines in workplace segregation by race and ethnicity; indeed, black-white segregation increased. Over this decade, segregation by education also increased. In contrast, workplace segregation by sex fell over the decade, and would have fallen by more had the services industry - a heavily female industry in which sex segregation is relatively high - not experienced rapid employment growth.

Abstract:
In this paper, we first describe the 1990 DEED, the most recently constructed matched employer-employee data set for the United States that contains detailed demographic information on workers (most notably, information on education). We then use the data from manufacturing establishments in the 1990 DEED to update and expand on previous findings, using a more limited data set, regarding the measurement of the labor input and theories of wage determination (Hellerstein, et al., 1999). We find that the productivity of women is less than that of men, but not by enough to fully explain the gap in wages, a result that is consistent with wage discrimination against women. In contrast, we find no evidence of wage discrimination against blacks. We estimate that both the wage and productivity profiles are rising but concave to the origin (consistent with profiles quadratic in age), but the estimated relative wage profile is steeper than the relative productivity profile, consistent with models of deferred wages. We find a productivity premium for marriage equal to that of the wage premium, and a productivity premium for education that somewhat exceeds the wage premium. Exploring the sensitivity of these results, we also find that different specifications of production functions do not have any qualitative effects on these results. Finally, the results indicate that the returns to productive inputs (capital, materials, labor quality) as well as the residual variance are virtually unaffected by the choice of the construction of the labor quality input.

Productivity, discrimination, quality of labor, matched data

Abstract:
In this paper, we first describe the 1990 DEED, the most recently constructed matched employer-employee data set for the United States that contains detailed demographic information on workers (most notably, information on education). We then use the data from manufacturing establishments in the 1990 DEED to update and expand on previous findings, using a more limited data set, regarding the measurement of the labor input and theories of wage determination. We find that the productivity of women is less than that of men, but not by enough to fully explain the gap in wages, a result that is consistent with wage discrimination against women. In contrast, we find no evidence of wage discrimination against blacks. We estimate that both the wage and productivity profiles are rising but concave to the origin (consistent with profiles quadratic in age), but the estimated relative wage profile is steeper than the relative productivity profile, consistent with models of deferred wages. We find a productivity premium for marriage equal to that of the wage premium, and a productivity premium for education that somewhat exceeds the wage premium. Exploring the sensitivity of these results, we also find that different specifications of production functions do not have any qualitative effects on the these results. Finally, the results indicate that the returns to productive inputs (capital, materials, labor quality) as well as the residual variance are virtually unaffected by the choice of the construction of the labor quality input.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
We contrast the spatial mismatch hypothesis with what we term the racial mismatchhypothesis - that the problem is not a lack of jobs, per se, where blacks live, but a lack of jobsinto which blacks are hired, whether because of discrimination or labor market networks inwhich race matters. We first report new evidence on the spatial mismatch hypothesis, using data from Census Long-Form respondents. We construct direct measures of the presence of jobs in detailed geographic areas, and find that these job density measures are related to employment of black male residents in ways that would be predicted by the spatial mismatch hypothesis - in particular that spatial mismatch is primarily an issue for low-skilled black male workers. We then look at racial mismatch, by estimating the effects of job density measures that are disaggregated by race. We find that it is primarily black job density that influences black male employment, where as white job density has little if any influence on their employment. This evidence implies that space alone plays a relatively minor role in low black male employment rates.

Abstract:
We contrast the spatial mismatch hypothesis with what we term the racial mismatch hypothesis  that the problem is not a lack of jobs, per se, where blacks live, but a lack of jobs where blacks live into which blacks are hired. We first report new evidence on the spatial mismatch hypothesis, using data from Census Long-Form respondents. We construct direct measures of the presence of jobs in detailed geographic areas, and find that these job density measures are related to employment of black male residents in ways that would be predicted by the spatial mismatch hypothesis  in particular that spatial mismatch is primarily an issue for low-skilled black male workers. We then look at mismatch along not only spatial lines but racial lines as well, by estimating the effects of job density measures that are disaggregated by race. We find that it is primarily black job density that influences black male employment, whereas white job density has little if any influence on their employment. The evidence implies that space alone plays a relatively minor role in low black male employment rates.

Abstract:
Publication bias in economics may lead to selective specification searches that result in overreporting in the published literature of results consistent with economists' priors. In reassessing the published time-series studies on the employment effects of minimum wages, some recent research has reported evidence consistent with publication bias, and concluded that the most plausible explanation of this evidence is editors' and authors' tendencies to look for negative and statistically significant estimates of the employment effect of the minimum wage, (Card and Krueger, 1995a, p. 242). We present results indicating that the evidence is more consistent with a change in the estimated minimum wage effect over time than with publication bias. More generally, we demonstrate that existing approaches to testing for publication bias may generate spurious evidence of such bias when there are structural changes in some parameters. We then suggest an alternative strategy for testing for publication bias that is more immune to structural change. Although changing parameters may be uncommon in clinical trials on which most of the existing literature on publication bias is based, they are much more plausible in economics.

Abstract:
The primary goal of a national minimum wage floor is to raise the incomes of poor families with members in the work force. We present evidence on the effects of minimum wages on family incomes from March CPS surveys. Using non-parametric estimates of the distributions of family income relative to needs in states and years with and without minimum wage increases, we examine the effects of minimum wages on this distribution, and on the distribution of the changes in income that families experience. Although minimum wages do increase the incomes of some poor families, the evidence indicates that their net effect is, if anything, to increase the proportions of families with incomes below or near the poverty line. Thus, it would appear that reductions in the proportions of families that are poor or near-poor should not be counted among the potential benefits of minimum wages.

minimum wages, poverty, nonparametric, family incomes

Abstract:
Features of the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program and the social security retirement system may interact in a manner that creates incentives for prospective SSI recipients to take social security early retirement (SSER). This paper takes a first close look at this issue. The work disincentives posed by SSI rules and the potential interactions between the SSI and SSER programs are outlined in a basic theoretical framework. The hypotheses that emerge can be tested using public-use microdata linked to Social Security Administration records. We first present evidence supporting the hypothesis that SSI rules induce prospective SSI recipients to substantially reduce work activity (by various measures) prior to age 65. We then present two types of evidence on SSI-SSER interactions. We do not find a simple correspondence between generous SSI benefits and SSER use, which might be an expected indirect SSI-SSER interaction. However, estimates for some specifications for SSER receipt, derived directly from the theoretical interaction between SSER and SSI rules through the household budget constraint, provide evidence of a direct interaction between SSER and SSI, with SSI inducing use of SSER for those individuals for whom the SSI-SSER interaction eliminates the reduction in benefits associated with early receipt of social security benefits.

SSI, SSER, Retirement, Social Security

Abstract:
This paper evaluates the effects of the earned income tax credit (EITC) on poor families. Exploiting state-level variation in EITCs, we find that the EITC helps families rise above poverty-level earnings. This occurs by inducing labor market entry in families that initially do not have an adult in the workforce. Evidence based on the federal EITC is less supportive of a positive impact of the EITC on poor families. Finally, our results suggest that for the range of policy changes typical of recent history in the U.S., the EITC is more beneficial for poor families than is the minimum wage.

Abstract:
This paper evaluates the effects of the earned income tax credit (EITC) on poor families. Exploiting state-level variation in EITCs, we find that the EITC helps families rise above poverty-level earnings. This occurs by inducing labor market entry in families that initially do not have an adult in the workforce. Evidence based on the federal EITC is less supportive of a positive impact of the EITC on poor families. Finally, our results suggest that for the range of policy changes typical of recent history in the U.S., the EITC is more beneficial for poor families than is the minimum wage.

Abstract:
We assemble a new matched employer-employee data set covering essentially all industries and occupations across all regions of the U.S. We use this data set to re-examine the question of the relative contributions to the overall sex gap in wages of sex segregation vs. wage differences by sex within occupation, industry, establishment, and occupation-establishment cells. This new data set is especially useful because earlier research on this topic relied on data sets that covered only a narrow range of industries, occupations, or regions. Our results indicate that a sizable fraction of the sex gap in wages is accounted for by the segregation of women into lower-paying occupations, industries, establishments, and occupations within establishments. Nonetheless, a substantial part of the sex gap in wages remains attributable to the individual's sex. This latter finding contrasts sharply with the conclusions of previous research (especially Groshen, 1991), which indicated that sex segregation accounted for essentially all of the sex wage gap. Further research into the sources of within-establishment within-occupation sex wage differences is therefore much more important than previously thought.

Abstract:
We use a new database, the National Establishment Time Series (NETS), to revisit the debate about the role of small businesses in job creation. Birch (e.g., 1987) argued that small firms are the most important source of job creation in the U.S. economy. But Davis et al. (1996a) argued that this conclusion was flawed, and based on improved methods and using data for the manufacturing sector, they concluded that there was no relationship between establishment size and net job creation. Using the NETS data, we examine evidence for the overall economy, as well as for different sectors. The results indicate that small firms and small establishments create more jobs, on net, although the difference is much smaller than what is suggested by Birch's methods. Moreover, in the recent period we study, a negative relationship between establishment size and job creation holds for both the manufacturing and services sectors.

job creation, job destruction, small businesses

Abstract:
Interest in the potential effects of different systems for organizing work and managing employees on the performance of organizations has a long history in the social sciences. The interest in economics, arguably more recent, reflects a general concern about the sources of competitiveness in organizations. A number of methodological problems have confronted previous attempts to examine the relationship between work practices and the performance of firms. Among the most intractable has been a concern about establishing causation given heterogeneity biases in what have typically been cross-sectional data. The results from prior literature are suggestive of important productivity effects but remain inconclusive. To address the major methodological problems we use a national probability sample of establishments, measures of work practices and performance that are comparable across organizations, and most importantly a unique longitudinal design incorporating data from a period prior to the advent of high performance work practices. Our results suggest that work practices that transfer power to employees, often described as statistical case is weak. However, we also find that these work practices on average raise labor costs per employee. The net result is no apparent effect on efficiency, a measure that combines labor costs and labor productivity. While these results do not appear to be consistent with the view that such practices are good for employers, neither do they suggest that such practices harm employers. They are, however, consistent with the view that these practices raise average compensation and hence may be good for employees. Overall, then, the evidence suggests that firms can choose raise employee compensation without necessarily harming their competitiveness.

Abstract:
The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program in the United States creates incentives for potential aged recipients to reduce labor supply prior to becoming eligible, and our past research finds that older men likely to be eligible for SSI at age 65 reduce their labor supply in the years immediately before the age of eligibility. However, given the dramatic supplementation of SSI benefits in some states, a migration response to these benefits cannot be dismissed, and migration that is associated with SSI benefits can lead to bias in estimates of the effects of SSI benefits on labor supply; depending on retirement and migration behavior, the disincentive effects can be overstated or understated. Migration responses to SSI benefits are also important in their own right, as another instance of the potential problem of "welfare magnets." We fail to find any statistically significant evidence that older individuals likely to be eligible for SSI in the near future, or already eligible for SSI, are more likely to move from low benefit to high benefit states. These findings are robust to the use of a number of different comparison groups to try to capture the state-to-state migration patterns that exist independently of a response to SSI. The evidence indicates that labor supply disincentive effects of SSI do not stem from migration behavior that could, in principle, spuriously generate these findings.

SSI, labor supply, migration

Abstract:
It is often argued that 'new economy' jobs are less likely to use traditional employment relationships, and more likely to rely on 'alternative' or 'contingent' work. When we look at new economy jobs classified on the basis of employment in high-tech industries, we do not find greater use of contingent or alternative employment relationships. However, when we classify new economy workers based on residence in high-tech cities, contingent and alternative employment relationships are more common, even after accounting for the faster employment growth in these cities. Finally, defining 'new economy' more literally to be those industries with the fastest growth yields the most striking differences, as workers in the fastest-growing industries are much more likely to be in contingent or alternative employment relationships, with a large share of this difference driven by employment in the fast-growing construction and personnel supply services industries where employment is perhaps 'intrinsically' contingent or alternative. While subject to numerous qualifications, the combined evidence gives some support to the hypothesis that the new economy may entail a possibly significant and long-lasting increase in contingent and alternative employment relationships.

Abstract:
The question of the effects of race and sex discrimination laws on relative economic outcomes for blacks and women has been of interest at least since the Civil Rights and Equal Pay Acts passed in the 1960s. We present new evidence on the effects of these laws based on variation induced first by state anti-discrimination statutes passed prior to the federal legislation and then by the extension of anti-discrimination prohibitions to the remaining states with the passage of federal legislation. This evidence improves upon earlier time-series studies of the effects of anti-discrimination legislation. It is complementary to more recent work that revisits this question using data and statistical experiments that provide "treatment" and "comparison" groups. We examine the effects of race and sex discrimination laws on employment and earnings, in each case focusing on outcomes for black females, black males, and white females relative to white males. Overall, we interpret the evidence as corroborating the general conclusion that race discrimination laws positively impacted the relative employment and earnings of blacks, although the evidence is less dramatic than that reported in other research, and there are some cases (in particular, earnings effects for black males) and periods for which we find little positive impact. We find some evidence that sex discrimination/equal pay laws boosted the relative earnings of black and white females. Finally, we find that sex discrimination/equal pay laws reduced the relative employment of both black women and white women.

Abstract:
Concern about job instability and insecurity has a long history and has generated a considerable body of research across the social sciences, most recently focused on whether job stability and security have declined. Internally flexible systems for organizing work, sometimes called "functionally flexible" systems, have been proposed as arrangements that can reduce job instability and insecurity by reducing the need for firms to rely on job cuts or contingent work to be able to respond to changes in their environments. Related arguments have been made with regard to contingent work - that it allows firms to adjust labor while "buffering" their core of permanent workers from instability. We examine these arguments using three measures of instability and insecurity - voluntary and involuntary turnover and the use of contingent work - drawn from a national probability sample of establishments. We find evidence that internally flexible work systems are associated with reduced voluntary and involuntary turnover in manufacturing. But in the rest of the economy and indeed overall, they tend to be positively associated with all three measures. Further, the use of contingent work is, in fact, positively related to involuntary turnover even in manufacturing. The evidence therefore suggests that on net employers seeking flexibility in labor tend to use flexible work practices, contingent work, and turnover as complements, while only in manufacturing is there some evidence of substitutability between internal job flexibility and external job churning.

Abstract:
We examine the effects of employment-contingent health insurance on married women's labor supply following a health shock. First, we develop a theoretical model that examines the effects of employment-contingent health insurance on the labor supply response to a health shock, to clarify under what conditions employment-contingent health insurance is likely to dampen the labor supply response. Second, we empirically evaluate this relationship using primary data. The results from our analysis find that - as the model suggests is likely - health shocks decrease labor supply to a greater extent among women insured by their spouse's policy than among women with health insurance through their own employer. Employment-contingent health insurance appears to create incentives to remain working and to work at a greater intensity when faced with a serious illness.

health insurance, health shock, cancer, labor supply

Abstract:
This paper explores the effects of living wages on low-wage workers and low-income families. First, we update our earlier analyses, using data for 1996-2002, and address a number of criticisms of those analyses. We confirm our earlier findings that business assistance living wage laws boost wages of the lowest-wage workers, at the cost of some disemployment, but on net reduce urban poverty. Second, we expand the analysis of distributional effects beyond looking just at the poverty threshold. We do not find that living wages increase the depth of poverty among families that remain poor, and we find that families somewhat below and somewhat above the poverty line are also helped by living wages. Finally, we suggest that the poverty reductions generated by living wages may stem from income gains for individuals with higher wages or skills who are nonetheless in poor families, rather than for the lowest-wage or lowest-skill individuals.

Abstract:
This paper explores the effects of living wages on low-wage workers and low-income families. Using data for 1996-2002, it updates an earlier analysis, addresses criticisms of it, and confirms the finding that business assistance living-wage laws reduce overall urban poverty at the cost of some disemployment. It also expands the analysis to examine other distributional effects, finding that living wages help families slightly below and above the poverty line without increasing the depth of poverty among families that remain poor. Finally, the paper suggests that the poverty reductions generated by living wages stem from income gains for those with higher wages or skills who are initially in poor families rather than for those at the very bottom of the wage and skill distribution.

Living wages, poverty

Abstract:
Living wage laws are touted as anti-poverty measures. Yet they apply to only a small fraction of workers, most commonly covering only employers with city contracts. The apparent contradiction between broad anti-poverty goals and narrow coverage suggests that goals other than poverty reduction may partly underlie living wage campaigns. This paper considers the hypothesis that living wage laws act to maintain or increase rents among unionized municipal workers. By raising the wages that city contractors would have to pay, living wage laws may reduce the incentives for cities to contract out work that would otherwise be done by unionized municipal employees, hence increasing the bargaining power of municipal unions and leading to higher wages for their members. The evidence presented here, from an analysis of CPS data for 1996-2000, indicates that the wages of unionized municipal workers are indeed increased as a result of living wage laws covering contractors.

Living wages, low-wage workers, anti-poverty, municipal unions

Abstract:
Living wage laws, which were introduced in the mid-1990s and have expanded rapidly since then, are typically touted as anti-poverty measures. Yet they frequently restrict coverage to employers with city contracts, and in such cases apply to a small fraction of workers. This apparent contradiction leads to the question of whether there are alternative motivations for various economic and political actors to seek passage of living wage laws. This paper considers the hypothesis that unions representing municipal employees work for the implementation of living wage laws to maintain or increase rents. By raising the wages that city contractors would have to pay, living wage laws may reduce the incentives for cities to contract out work that would otherwise be done by municipal employees, hence increasing the bargaining power of municipal unions and leading to higher wages. The empirical analysis leads to evidence that the wages of unionized municipal workers are increased as a result of living wages. This evidence does not imply that living wages offer no assistance to low-wage workers or low-income families. However, it suggests that alternative policies intended to achieve the goal of reducing urban poverty may be more effective, as living wage laws may result more from considerations of self-interest of narrow but politically powerful groups of workers than from consideration of the optimal way of achieving this goal.

Abstract:
Many features of living wage laws may influence the strength of their effects on wages and employment of low-skill individuals. Echoing past research, business assistance living wage laws generate stronger wage increases and employment reductions than contractor-only laws. But broader enforcement or implementation and geographic concentration of living wage laws also appear to strengthen their effects. Finally, geographic concentration may be more significant than the distinction between business assistance and contractor-only living wage laws.

Abstract:
Many features of living wage laws may influence the strength of their effects on wages and employment of low-skill individuals. Echoing past research, business assistance living wage laws generate stronger wage increases and employment reductions than contractor-only laws. But broader enforcement or implementation and geographic concentration of living wage laws also appear to strengthen their effects. Finally, geographic concentration may be more significant than the distinction between business assistance and contractor-only living wage laws.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
Relying on data from the Health and Retirement Study, we examine differences between breast cancer survivors and a non-cancer control group in employment, hours worked, wages, and earnings. Overall, breast cancer has a negative impact on the decision to work. However, among survivors who work, hours of work and, correspondingly, annual earnings are higher compared to women in the non-cancer control group. These findings suggest that while breast cancer has a negative effect on women's employment, breast cancer may not be debilitating for those who remain in the work force. We explore numerous possible biases underlying our estimates especially selection based on information in the Health and Retirement Study, and examine related evidence from supplemental data sources.

Abstract:
Nearly 100 cities and local governments in the United States passed living wage laws since the mid-1990s. The central goal of living wages is to reduce poverty, yet they may fail to do so because of disemployment effects. We summarize and critique the existing research on the effects of living wages on wages, employment, and family income, emphasizing common findings, points of disagreement, and important questions for future research. The evidence thus far points to wage increases as well as employment losses for the least-skilled - although there is disagreement about the employment effects - but on net some beneficial distributional effects. The evidence also points to efficiency wage-type effects of living wage laws that may offset some of the adverse impacts on employers.

Abstract:
This paper explores the prevalence and consequences of age discrimination in the workplace by analyzing self-reports of discrimination by respondents in the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men. Age discrimination was reported in seven percent of our cases, during the period 1966-1980. Workers with positive reports were much more likely to separate from their employer and less likely to remain employed than workers who report no age discrimination. The estimated effect of reported discrimination remains large and significant even when controlling for the existence of mandatory retirement provisions on the current job. These findings are generally robust to numerous attempts to correct the estimates for the inherent limitations of self-reported data, particularly the potential heterogeneity bias that arises from differences in the propensity to report discrimination, and the possibility that discrimination is reported in response to other negative labor market outcomes.

Abstract:
We estimate the employment effects of changes in national minimum wages using a pooled cross-section time-series data set comprising sixteen OECD countries for the period 1975-1997. We pay particular attention to the impact of cross-country differences in minimum wage systems and in other labor market institutions and policies that may either reduce or amplify the effects of minimum wages. Overall, our results generally are consistent with the view that minimum wages cause employment losses among youth. However, the evidence also suggests that the employment effects of minimum wages vary considerably across countries. Disemployment effects of minimum wages appear to be smaller when there are subminimum wages for youths, while, in the longer run at least, minimum wages set by collective bargaining may entail more deleterious employment effects. We also find that government policies restricting employers' ability to adjust nonpecuniary characteristics of jobs (such as hours restrictions or work rules) tend to exacerbate the negative effects of minimum wages on youth employment, while countries with active labor market policies designed to bring non-employed individuals into the work force tend to exhibit smaller disemployment effects from minimum wages.

Abstract:
We describe the construction and assessment of a new matched employer-employee data set (the Decennial Employer-Employee Dataset, or DEED) that we have undertaken as a part of a broad research agenda to study segregation in the U.S. labor market. In this paper we examine the role of segregation by Hispanic ethnicity and language proficiency, contributing new, previously unavailable descriptive information on segregation along these lines, and evidence on the wage premia or penalties associated with this segregation. The DEED is much larger and more representative across regional and industry dimensions than previous matched data sets for the United States, and improvements along both of these dimensions are essential to isolating the importance of segregation by language and ethnicity in the workplace. Our empirical results reveal considerable segregation by Hispanic ethnicity and by English language proficiency. We find that Hispanic workers, but not white workers, suffer wage penalties from employment in a workplace with a large share of Hispanic workers, and even more so a large share of Hispanic workers with poor English language proficiency. In addition, we find that segregation of Hispanic workers among other Hispanics with similar English language proficiency does not reduce the penalties associated with poor own language skills.

Abstract:
We use a new database, the National Establishment Time Series (NETS), to revisit the debate about the role of small businesses in job creation. Birch (e.g., 1987) argued that small firms are the most important source of job creation in the U.S. economy, but Davis et al. (1996a) argued that this conclusion was flawed, and based on improved methods and using data for the manufacturing sector they concluded that there was no relationship between establishment size and net job creation. Using the NETS data, we examine evidence for the overall economy, as well as for different sectors. The results indicate that small establishments and small firms create more jobs, on net, although the difference is much smaller than what is suggested by Birch's methods. However, the negative relationship between establishment size and job creation is much less clear for the manufacturing sector, which may explain some of the earlier findings contradicting Birch's conclusions.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper attempts to test whether information problems in labor markets can explain why minority or female workers are sometimes paid less than equally-qualified white male workers. In particular, the relationship between starting wages, current performance, and race and sex is studied. OLS regressions of starting wages on current performance--which is measured some time after the beginning of employment--indicate that minority workers are paid lower starting wages than white workers with the same eventual performance, among both men and women. This may reflect taste discrimination. However, if employers base starting wages on expected productivity or performance, and average performance is lower for minority workers (as it is in these data), then these estimated differentials could reflect simple statistical discrimination. A test of statistical versus taste discrimination and a test of statistical discrimination versus pure measurement error provide some evidence for both men and women that statistical discrimination is partly to blame for these differences in starting wages between minority and white workers, although the evidence is not very strong statistically. Average performance of women is if anything higher than that of men, so simple statistical discrimination cannot explain the lower starting wages that women receive. However, more complex models of statistical discrimination suggest that worse labor market information about a particular group can generate lower wages for that group. A test of the quality of labor market information suggests that employers have better information about male workers, which may explain the lower starting wages paid to women. Together, this evidence suggests that better labor market information might boost starting wages of minorities and women.

Abstract:
We use new establishment-level data and geographic mapping methods to improve upon evaluations of the effectiveness of state enterprise zones, focusing on California’s program. Because zone boundaries do not follow census tracts or zip codes, we created digitized maps of original zone boundaries and later expansions. We combine these maps with geocoded observations on most businesses located in California. The evidence indicates that enterprise zones do not increase employment. We also find no shift of employment toward the lower-wage workers or manufacturing sector targeted by enterprise zone incentives. We conclude that the program is ineffective in achieving its primary goals.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Living wage campaigns have succeeded in about 100 jurisdictions in the United States but have also been unsuccessful in numerous cities. These unsuccessful campaigns provide a better control group or counterfactual for estimating the effects of living wage laws than the broader set of all cities without a law, and also permit the separate estimation of the effects of living wage laws and living wage campaigns. We find that living wage laws raise wages of low-wage workers but reduce employment among the least-skilled, especially when the laws cover business assistance recipients or are accompanied by similar laws in nearby cities.

Abstract:
We report new evidence on the existence of sex discrimination in wages and whether competitive market forces act to reduce or eliminate discrimination. Specifically, we use plant- and firm-level data to examine the relationships between profitability, growth and ownership changes, product market power, and the sex composition of a plant's or firm's workforce. Our strongest finding is that among plants with high levels of product market power, those that employ relatively more women are more profitable. No such relationship exists for plants with apparently low levels of market power. This is consistent with sex discrimination in wages in the short run in markets where plants have product market power. We also examine evidence on the longer-run effects of market forces on discrimination, asking whether discriminatory employers with market power are punished over time through lower growth than non-discriminatory employers, or whether discriminatory employers are bought out by non-discriminators. We find little evidence that this occurs over a five-year period, as growth and ownership changes for plants with market power are generally not significantly related to the sex composition of a plant's workforce.

Abstract:
We re-evaluate the evidence from Card and Krueger's (1994) New Jersey-Pennsylvania minimum wage experiment, using new data based on actual payroll records from 230 Burger King, KFC, Wendy's, and Roy Rogers restaurants in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. We compare results using these payroll data to those using CK's data, which were collected by telephone surveys. We have two findings to report. First, the data collected by CK appear to indicate greater employment variation over the eight-month period between their surveys than do the payroll data. For example, in the full sample the standard deviation of employment change in CK's data is three times as large as that in the payroll data. Second, estimates of the employment effect of the New Jersey minimum wage increase from the payroll data lead to the opposite conclusion from that reached by CK. For comparable sets of restaurants, differences-in-differences estimates using CK's data imply that the New Jersey minimum wage increase (of 18.8 percent) resulted in an employment increase of 17.6 percent relative to the Pennsylvania control group, an elasticity of 0.93. In contrast, estimates based on the payroll data suggest that the New Jersey minimum wage increase led to a 4.6 percent decrease in employment in New Jersey relative to the Pennsylvania control group. This decrease is statistically significant at the five-percent level and implies an elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage of -0.24.

Abstract:
This paper presents evidence on the employment effects of recent minimum wage increases from a pre-specified research design that entailed committing to a detailed set of statistical analyses prior to 'going to' the data. Despite the limited data to which the pre-specified research design can be applied, evidence of disemployment effects of minimum wages is often found where we would most expect it--for younger, less-skilled workers.

Abstract:
In Lazear's model of long-term incentive contracts, age discrimination laws barring age-based involuntary terminations preclude such contracts, reducing efficiency. Alternatively, such laws may serve as precommitment devices for these contracts, without preventing firms from offering strong financial incentives to induce retirement at specific ages. In this case, age discrimination laws may encourage Lazear contracts, hence increasing efficiency. We assess evidence on these alternative interpretations using variation in state and federal age discrimination laws. The evidence indicates that age discrimination laws steepen age-earnings profiles for cohorts entering the labor market, suggesting that these laws encourage the use of Lazear contracts.

Abstract:
In Lazear's (1979) model of efficient long-term incentive contracts, employers impose involuntary retirement based on age. This model implies that age discrimination laws, which bar involuntary terminations based on age, discourage the use of such contracts and reduce efficiency. Alternatively, by making it costly for firms to dismiss older workers paid in excess of their marginal product, such laws may serve as precommitment devices that make credible the long-term commitment to workers that firms must make under Lazear contracts. Given that employers remain able to use financial incentives to induce retirement, age discrimination laws may instead strengthen the bonds between workers and firms and encourage efficient Lazear contracts. We assess evidence on these alternative interpretations of age discrimination laws by estimating the effects of such laws on the steepness of age-earnings profiles. If long-term incentive contracts are strengthened or become more prevalent, average age-earnings profiles should steepen for workers who enter the labor" market after age discrimination laws are passed, and vice versa. The empirical analysis uses decennial Censuses of Population and state-level variation in age discrimination laws induced by state and federal legislation. The evidence indicates that age discrimination laws lead to steeper age-earnings profiles for cohorts entering the labor market, suggesting that these laws encourage the use of Lazear contracts, and increase efficiency.

Abstract:
We use a unique new data set that combines individual worker data with data on workers' employers to estimate plant-level production functions and wage equations, and thus to compare relative marginal products and relative wages for various groups of workers. The data and empirical framework lead to new evidence on numerous questions regarding the determination of wages, questions that hinge on the relationship between wages and marginal products of workers in different demographic groups. These include race and sex discrimination in wages, the causes of rising wages over the life cycle, and the returns to marriage. First, workers who have ever been married are more productive than never-married workers and are paid accordingly. Second, prime-aged workers (aged 35-54) are equally as productive as younger workers, and in some specifications are estimated to receive higher wages. However, older workers (aged 55+) are less productive than younger workers but are paid more. Third, the data indicate no difference between the relative wage and relative productivity of black workers. Finally, with the exception of managerial and professional occupations, women are paid about 25-35% less than men, but estimated productivity differentials for women are generally no larger than 15%, and significantly smaller than the pay differential.

Abstract:
The principal means by which individuals and families achieve economic self-sufficiency is through labor market earnings. As a consequence, it is natural for policy makers to look to interventions that increase the ability of individuals and families to achieve an adequate standard of living from participating in the labor market - a goal that has become even more prominent in the post-welfare reform era in the United States. This paper discusses some key policies that are used or can be used to increase economic self-sufficiency by increasing earnings, including mandating higher wages, subsidizing work, and increasing skill formation. Specifically, it reviews evidence on some of the main policies currently in place in the United States, including minimum and living wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit, wage subsidies, and school-to-work programs. Finally, it considers alternative policies that have recently been proposed.

minimum wages, living wages, earned income tax credit, wage subsidies, school-to-work

Abstract:
We estimate the effects of living wage laws on wages of low-wage workers, focusing on the timing of policy, spurious associations, and the type of living wage law passed in a city. Our estimates point to sizable positive wage effects in cities with broad living wage laws that cover employers receiving business assistance from the city. We also explore disemployment effects of living wage laws and find evidence consistent with tradeoffs between wages and employment.

Abstract:
We argue in this paper that the focus on employment effects in recent studies of minimum wages ignores an important interaction between schooling, employment, and the minimum wage. To study these linkages, we estimate a conditional logit model of employment and enrollment outcomes for teenagers using state-year observations for the period 1977 to 1989. The results show a negative influence of minimum wages on school enrollment and a positive effect on the proportion of teens neither employed nor in school. We further suggest that our results are consistent with substitution by employers of higher- for lower-skilled teenagers, with the displaced teens ending up both out of work and out of school.

Abstract:
In Neumark and Wascher (1992), we present findings supporting the earlier consensus that minimum wages reduce employment for teens and young adults, with elasticities in the range -0.1 to -0.2. In addition, we find that subminimum wages moderate these disemployment effects. Card, Katz and Krueger (1993) criticize numerous aspects of our analysis, and contest our conclusions. This reply presents an assessment of their arguments, as well as additional evidence related to some of the criticisms that they raise. We conclude that the issues raised by Card, et al., upon further examination, do not alter the conclusions from our original paper, and in some cases even reinforce those conclusions.

Abstract:
We use data from a survey of employers to investigate how Affirmative Action in recruiting and hiring influences hiring practices, personnel policies, and ultimately employment outcomes. Our results show that Affirmative Action increases the number of recruitment and screening practices used by employers, raises their willingness to hire stigmatized applicants, increases the number of minority or female applicants as well as employees, and increases employers' tendencies to provide training and to formally evaluate employees. When Affirmative Action is used in recruiting, it does not lead to lower credentials or performance of women and minorities hired. When it is also used in hiring, it yields female and minority employees whose credentials are somewhat weaker, though performance generally is not. Over than, the more intensive search, evaluation, and training that accompany Affirmative Action appear to offset any tendencies of the policy to lead to hiring of less-qualified or less-productive women and minorities.

Abstract:
The authors use data from a survey of employers to investigate how Affirmative Action in recruiting and hiring influences hiring practices, personnel policies, and ultimately employment outcomes. They find that Affirmative Action increases the number of recruitment and screening practices used by employers, raises employers' willingness to hire stigmatized applicants, increases the number of minority or female applicants as well as employees, and increases employers' tendencies to provide training and formally evaluate employees. When Affirmative Action is used in recruiting, it generally does not lead to lower credentials or performance of women and minorities hired. When it is also used in hiring, it yields minority employees whose credentials are somewhat weaker, though performance generally is not. Overall, the more intensive search, evaluation, and training that accompany Affirmative Action appear to offset any tendencies of the policy to lead to hiring of less-qualified or less-productive women and minorities.

Abstract:
One potential method to increase the success of female graduate students in economics may be to encourage mentoring relationships between these students and female faculty members. Increased hiring of female faculty is viewed as one way to promote such mentoring relationships, perhaps because of role-model effects. A more direct method of promoting such relationships may be for female graduate students to have female faculty serve as dissertation chairs. The evidence in this paper addresses the question of whether either of these strategies results in more successful outcomes for female graduate students. The evidence is based on survey information on female graduate students and faculties of Ph.D.-producing economics departments, covering the mid-1970s to the early 1990s. With respect to characteristics of the institutions at which students are first placed when leaving graduate school, the empirical evidence provides no support for the hypothesis that outcomes for female graduate students are improved by adding female faculty members, or by having a female dissertation chair. However, with respect to time to complete graduate school, and the completion rate, there is some limited evidence of beneficial effects of female faculty members.

Abstract:
We specify and implement a test for the importance of network effects in determining the establishments at which people work, using recently-constructed matched employer-employee data at the establishment level. We explicitly measure the importance of network effects for groups broken out by race, ethnicity, and various measures of skill, for networks generated by residential proximity. The evidence indicates that labor market networks play an important role in hiring, more so for minorities and the less-skilled, especially among Hispanics, and that labor market networks appear to be race-based.

networks, race, ethnicity, immigrants

Abstract:
We specify and implement a test for the importance of network effects in determining the establishments at which people work, using recently-constructed matched employer-employee data at the establishment level. We explicitly measure the importance of network effects for groups broken out by race, ethnicity, and various measures of skill, for networks generated by residential proximity. The evidence indicates that these types of labor market networks play an important role in hiring, more so for minorities and the less-skilled, especially among Hispanics, and that these networks appear to be race-based.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
We present a new approach to estimating minimum wage effects on employment. In contrast to most previous research, we account for the possibility that the relationship between minimum wages and employment depends on the magnitude of the minimum wage relative to the equilibrium wage in the absence of the legislated minimum. In particular, estimating the employment effects of binding minimum wages requires separation of sample observations into those that are on the labor demand curve but off the labor supply curve, and those that are at labor market equilibria. The paper implements an endogenous switching regression model with unknown sample separation that yields these estimates. The approach also yields estimates of the impact of labor market characteristics on the probability that minimum wages are binding. We also extend the disequilibrium approach to monopsony, which introduces a third regime, between the equilibrium monopsony wage and the equilibrium competitive wage, in which observations are on the labor supply curve but off the labor demand curve and minimum wages are therefore positively related to employment. Minimum wage effects under monopsony are estimated in a three-regime endogenous switching regression model with unknown regimes, and the monopsony characterization of low-wage labor markets is tested against the competitive characterization.

Abstract:
The recent debate over minimum wages raises two questions. First, should policy makers no longer believe that minimum wages entail negative consequences for teenagers? Second, should economists discard the competitive labor market model? Our evidence for teenagers, using matched CPS surveys, suggests that the answer to both of these questions is no. We find that although increases in minimum wages have small net effects on overall teen employment rates, such increases raise the probability that more-skilled teenagers leave school and displace lower-skilled workers from their jobs. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a competitive labor market model that recognizes skill differences among workers. In addition, we find that the displaced lower-skilled workers are more likely to end up non-enrolled and non-employed. Thus, despite the small net disemployment effects for teenagers as a group, there are significant enrollment and employment shifts associated with minimum wage changes that should be of concern to policy makers.

Abstract:
Women who have first births relatively late in life earn higher wages. This paper offers an explanation of this fact based on a simple life-cycle model of human capital investment and timing of first birth. The model yields conditions (that are plausibly satisfied) under which late childbearers will tend to invest more heavily in human capital than early childbearers. The empirical analysis finds results consistant with the higher wages of late childbearers arising primarily through greater measureable human capital investment.

Abstract:
We examine the possible sources of the larger racial and ethnic wage gaps for men than for women in the U.S. Specifically, using a newly created employer-employee matched data set containing workers in essentially all occupations, industries, and regions, we examine whether these wage differences can be accounted for by differences between men and women in the patterns of racial and ethnic segregation within occupation, industry, establishments, and occupation-establishment cells. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to examine segregation by race and ethnicity at the level of establishment and job cell. Our results indicate that greater segregation between Hispanic men and white men than between Hispanic women and white women accounts for essentially all of the higher Hispanic-white wage gap for men. In addition, our estimates indicate that greater segregation between black and white men than between black and white women accounts for a sizable share (one-third to one-half) of the higher black-white wage gap for men. Our results imply that segregation is an important contributor to the lower wages paid to black and Hispanic men than to white men with similar individual characteristics. Our results also suggest that equal pay types of laws may offer some scope for reducing the black-white wage differential for men the Hispanic-white wage differential for men.

Abstract:
Theory predicts that minimum wages will reduce employer-provided on-the-job training designed to improve workers' skills on the current job, but may increase the amount of training that workers obtain to qualify for a job. We estimate the effects of minimum wages on the amount of both types of training received by young workers by exploiting cross-state variation in minimum wage increases. The evidence provides considerable support for the hypothesis that higher minimum wages reduce training (especially formal training) aimed at improving skills on the current job. At the same time, there is little or no evidence that minimum wages increase training undertaken to qualify for or obtain jobs. Consequently, it appears that, overall, minimum wages substantially reduce training received by young workers.

Abstract:
This paper tests whether school-to-work (STW) programs are particularly beneficial for those less likely to go to college in their absence%u2014%u2014often termed the %u201C%u201Cforgotten half%u201D%u201D in the STW literature. The empirical analysis is based on the NLSY97, which allows us to study six types of STW programs, including job shadowing, mentoring, coop, school enterprises, tech prep, and internships/apprenticeships. For men there is quite a bit of evidence that STW program participation is particularly advantageous for those in the forgotten half. For these men, specifically, mentoring and coop programs increase post-secondary education, and coop, school enterprise, and internship/apprenticeship programs boost employment and decrease idleness after leaving high school. There is less evidence that STW programs are particularly beneficial for women in the forgotten half, although internship/apprenticeship programs do lead to positive earnings effects concentrated among these women.

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Abstract:
We assess the evidence on the contribution of changes in the population age structure to the changing fortunes of youths in labor markets in advanced economies over the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, and use this evidence to project the likely effects of future cohort sizes on youth labor markets. We estimate a series of regression models to isolate the effects of exogenous changes in potential youth labor supply on youth employment and unemployment rates using a panel data set on 15 countries over more than 20 years. Our preferred estimates show large youth cohorts lead to increases in the unemployment rate of youths, with elasticities as high as .5 or .6. But the estimates generally indicate little effect of relative cohort size on employment rates of youths. We also find some evidence, though statistically weak, that labor market institutions that decrease flexibility lead to sharper responses of youth unemployment and employment rates to fluctuations in youth cohort size. Finally, due to recent declines in fertility, some European countries will see reductions in the size of youth cohorts over the next 16 years (especially Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Projections suggest declining youth shares should improve youth labor markets in these countries, although the effects are not large compared with longer-term changes in youth unemployment rates. Other countries cannot expect demographic changes to improve youth labor markets since youth population shares are projected to decline moderately or to increase.

Abstract:
Two key attributes of a job are its wage and its duration. Much has been made of changes in the wage distribution in the 1980s, but little attention has been given to job durations since Hall (1982). We fill this void by examining the temporal evolution of job retention rates in U.S. labor markets, using data assembled from the sequence of Current Population Survey job tenure supplements. In contrast to the distribution of wages, which clearly changed in the 1980s, we find that job retention rates have remained stable.

Abstract:
We study how provider choice in workers' compensation cases affects costs and outcomes. When employees choose the provider, costs are higher and return-to-work outcomes are worse, while physical recovery is the same although satisfaction with medical care is higher. The higher costs and worse return-to-work outcomes associated with employee choice arise largely when employees selected a new provider, rather than a provider with whom the worker had a pre-existing relationship. The findings lend some support to recent policy changes limiting workers' ability to choose a provider with whom they do not have a prior relationship.

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Abstract:
The primary goal of a national minimum wage floor is to raise the incomes of poor or near-poor families with members in the work force. However, estimates of employment effects of minimum wages tell us relatively little about whether minimum wages are likely to achieve this goal; even if the disemployment effects of minimum wages are modest, minimum wage increases could result in net income losses for poor and low-income families. In this paper, we present evidence on the effects of minimum wages on family incomes from matched March CPS surveys. Using non-parametric estimates of the distributions of family income relative to needs in states and years with an without minimum wage increases, we examine the effects of minimum wages on this distribution, and on the distribution of the changes in income that families experience. Although minimum wages do increase the incomes of some poor families, the evidence indicates that the overall effects are to increase the proportion of families that are poor and near-poor, and to decrease the proportion of families with incomes between 1.5 and 3 times the poverty level.

Abstract:
We examine evidence on omitted-ability bias in estimates of the economic return to schooling, using proxies for unobserved ability. We consider measurement error in these ability proxies and the potential endogeneity of both experience and schooling, and examine wages at labor market entry and later. Including ability proxies reduces the estimate of the return to schooling, and instrumenting for these proxies reduces the estimated return still further. Instrumenting for schooling leads to considerably higher estimates of the return to schooling, although only for wages at labor market entry. This estimated return generally reverts to being near (although still above) the OLS estimate if we allow experience to be endogenous. In contrast, for observations at least a few years after labor market entry, the evidence indicates that OLS estimates of the return to schooling that ignore omitted ability are, if anything, biased upward rather than downward.

Abstract:
Features of the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program and the social security retirement system interact to create incentives for prospective participants in the aged portion of SSI to withdraw from the labor force and make an early old age insurance (OAI) claim under social security. This paper takes a first close look at this SSI-OAI interaction. The work disincentives posed by SSI rules and the potential interactions between the SSI and social security programs are outlined in a basic theoretical framework. The impact of SSI rules on the financial cost of delaying the initial OAI claim is calculated using earnings records of actual SSI recipients. Regression specifications for early OAI claims that include variables intended to capture the influence of SSI are estimated. Throughout, the analyses are enhanced by access to Social Security Administration records that have been matched to individuals in the Surveys of Income and Program Participation.

Abstract:
Over the 1980s there were sharp increases in the return to schooling estimated with conventional wage regressions. We use both a signaling model and a human capital model to explore how the relationship between ability and schooling could have changed over this period in ways that would have increased the schooling coefficient in these regressions. Our empirical results reject the hypothesis that an increase in the upward bias of the schooling coefficient, due to a change in the relationship between ability and schooling, underlies the observed increase in the return to education over the 1980s. We find that the increase in the return to education has occurred largely for workers with relatively high levels of academic ability.

Abstract:
Short panel data sets constructed by matching individuals across monthly files of the Current Population Survey (CPS) have been used to study a wide range of questions in labor economics. Such panels offer unique advantages. But because the CPS makes no effort to follow movers, these panels exhibit significant attrition, which may lead to bias in longitudinal estimates using matched CPS files. Because the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) uses essentially the same sampling frame and design as the CPS, but makes substantial efforts to follow individuals that move, we use the SIPP to construct "data-based" rather than "model-based" corrections for bias from selective attrition. The approach is applied to a couple of standard economic relationships that have been studied with the CPS specifically union wage differentials and the male marriage wage premium. The results for the longitudinal analysis of union wage effects reveal negligible and statistically insignificant evidence of attrition bias. In contrast, the longitudinal analysis of the marriage premium for males finds statistically significant evidence of attrition bias, although the amount of bias does not seem to be serious in an economic sense. We regard the evidence as suggesting that in many applications the advantages of using matched CPS panels to obtain longitudinal estimates are likely to far outweigh the disadvantages from attrition biases, although we should allow for the possibility that attrition bias leads the longitudinal estimates to be understated.

Abstract:
This paper reports on a small-scale audit study that investigates sex discrimination in restaurant hiring. Comparably matched pairs of men and women applied for jobs as waiters and waitresses at 65 restaurants in Philadelphia. The 130 applications led to 54 interviews and 39 job offers. The results provide statistically significant evidence of sex discrimination against women in high-price restaurants. In high-price restaurants, job applications from women had an estimated probability of receiving a job offer that was lower by about .5, and an estimated probability of receiving an interview that was lower by about .4. These hiring patterns appear to have implications for sex differences in earnings, as informal survey evidence indicates that earnings are higher in high-price restaurants.

Abstract:
In this paper we use micro-level data on employers and employees to investigate whether Affirmative Action procedures lead firms to hire minority or female employees who are less qualified than workers who might otherwise be hired. Our measures of qualifications include the educational attainment of the workers hired (both absolutely and relative to job requirements), skill requirements of the job into which they are hired, and a variety of outcome measures that are presumably related to worker performance on the job. The analysis is based on a representative sample of over 3,200 employers in four major metropolitan areas in the U.S. Our results show some evidence of lower educational qualifications among blacks and Hispanics hired under Affirmative Action, but not among white women. Further, our results show little evidence of substantially weaker job performance among most groups of minority and female Affirmative Action hires.

Abstract:
In earlier work we examined the temporal evolution of job stability in U.S. labor markets through the 1980's, using data assembled from a sequence of Current Population Survey tenure supplements. We found little or no change in aggregate job stability in the U.S. economy. In addition, older and more-tenured workers experienced increases in job stability in the" latter part of the 1980's.

In this paper we update the evidence on changes in job stability through the mid-1990's, using recently-released CPS data for 1995 that parallel the earlier job tenure supplements. Updating the evidence from systematic random samples of the population and workforce through this period is especially important because the media have painted a particularly stark picture of declining job stability in the 1990's.

In the aggregate, there is some evidence that job stability declined modestly in the first half of the 1990's. Moreover, the relatively small aggregate changes mask rather sharp declines in stability for workers with more than a few years of tenure. Nonetheless, the data available to this point do not support the conclusion that the downward shift in job stability for more-tenured workers stability, reflect long-term trends.

Abstract:
We use data on sisters to jointly address heterogeneity bias and endogeneity bias in estimates of wage equations for women. This analysis yields evidence of biases in OLS estimates of wage equations for white and black women, some of which are detected only when these two sources of bias are addressed simultaneously. For both white and black women there is evidence of upward bias in the estimated returns to schooling. Bias-corrected estimates of the effect of marriage on wages, for white women, suggest a positive marriage premium. We also use the sibling data to identify our models, and test a number of other commonly used identifying assumptions as overidentifying restrictions.

Abstract:
We investigate the impact of union strength on changes in nonunion wages and employment. The prevailing model in this area is the threat model, which predicts that increases in union strength cause increases in nonunion wages and decreases in nonunion employment. In testing the threat model, we are also testing two alternatives, the crowding and complements models. In contrast to the prediction of the threat model, decreases in the percent organized (reflecting a declining union threat) are associated with increases in the nonunion wage. Furthermore, increases in union wages appear to decrease, rather than to increase, nonunion wages. Evidence on the determinants of intra-industry variation in nonunion wage premia is somewhat more consistent with the crowding model and is strikingly consistent with the complements model of union and nonunion wage determination. Further evidence on the determinants of intra-industry variation in nonunion employment is consistent with the complements model and the threat model; movements in nonunion industry employment are negatively related to changes in proxies for union strength. Thus, the combined evidence supports the complements model, but neither the threat model nor the crowding model.

Abstract:
Employment rates of Hispanic males in the United States are considerably lower than employment rates of whites. In the data used in this paper, the Hispanic male employment rate is 61 percent, compared with 83 percent for white men.1 The question of the employment disadvantage of Hispanic men likely has many parallels to the question of the employment disadvantage of black men, where factors including spatial mismatch, discrimination, and labor market networks have all received attention as contributing factors. However, the Hispanic disadvantage has been much less studied, and the goal of this paper is to bridge that gap. To that end, we present evidence that tries to assess which of the three factors listed above appears to contribute to the lower employment rate of Hispanic males. We focus in particular on immigrant Hispanics and Hispanics who do not speak English well.