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Abstract:
In this paper we develop and demonstrate the workings of a copula-based technique that allows the derivation of dynamic trading strategies, which generate returns with statistical properties similar to hedge funds. We show that this technique is not only capable of replicating fund of funds returns, but is equally well suited for the replication of individual hedge fund returns. Since replication is accomplished by trading futures on traditional assets only, it avoids the usual drawbacks surrounding hedge fund investments, including the need for extensive due diligence, liquidity, capacity, transparency and style drift problems, as well as excessive management fees. As such, our synthetic hedge fund returns are clearly to be preferred over real hedge fund returns.

hedge fund, replication, copula, dynamic trading

Abstract:
By dynamically trading futures in very much the same way as investment banks hedge their OTC option positions it is possible to generate returns that are statistically very similar to the returns generated by hedge funds but without any of the usual drawbacks surrounding alternative investments, i.e. without liquidity, capacity, transparency or style drift problems and without paying over-the-top management fees. Hedge fund returns may be different, but they are certainly not unique.

hedge fund, replication

Abstract:
Recently, Kat and Palaro (2005) showed how dynamic trading technology can be used to create dynamic futures trading strategies (or 'synthetic funds' as we call them), which generate returns with predefined statistical properties. In this paper we put their approach to the test. In a set of four out-of-sample tests over the period March 1995-April 2006 we show that the Kat and Palaro (2005) strategies are indeed capable of accurately generating returns with a variety of properties, including negative correlation with stocks and bonds and high positive skewness. Under difficult conditions, the synthetic funds also produce impressive average excess returns. Combined with their liquid and transparent nature, this confirms that synthetic funds are an attractive alternative to direct investment in popular alternative asset classes such as (funds of) hedge funds, commodities, etc.

synthetic fund, dynamic trading, correlation, skewness, asset allocation

Abstract:
In this paper we use the hedge fund return replication technique recently introduced in Kat and Palaro (2005) to evaluate the net-of-fee performance of 485 funds of hedge funds. The results indicate that the majority of funds of funds have not provided their investors with returns, which they could not have generated themselves by trading S&P 500, T-bond and Eurodollar futures. Purely in terms of returns therefore, most funds of hedge funds have failed to add value.

Hedge funds, fund of funds, return replication, performance evaluation, copula, alpha

Abstract:
In this paper we use the hedge fund return replication technique recently introduced by Kat and Palaro (2005) to evaluate the net-of-fee performance of 1917 individual hedge funds. Comparing fund returns with the returns on dynamic futures trading strategies with the same risk and dependence characteristics, we find that no more than 17.7% of the hedge funds in our sample beat the benchmark. In other words, the majority of hedge funds have not provided their investors with returns, which they could not have generated themselves by mechanically trading S&P 500, T-bond and Eurodollar futures. Over time, we observe a substantial deterioration in overall hedge fund performance. In addition, we find a tendency for the performance of successful funds to deteriorate over time, which supports the hypothesis that increasing assets under management endanger future performance.

Hedge funds, performance evaluation, return replication

Abstract:
Disappointing performance is leading hedge fund investors to look for cheaper alternatives. Hedge fund indexation has been suggested as a possible solution. Unfortunately, investable hedge fund indices are nothing more than funds of funds in disguise, with performance similar or even worse than real funds of funds. The core problem of hedge fund indexation is that as long as one still invests in hedge funds, the cost factor that indexation is meant to eliminate will still be there. In this paper we use our FundCreator technology to generate returns with statistical properties very similar to those of hedge fund indices, but without actually investing in hedge funds. The proposed strategies only trade liquid futures contracts and therefore not only offer investors an accurate replica, but at the same time solve many other problems typically surrounding hedge fund investments, such as illiquidity, lack of transparency, limited capacity, etc.

Hedge fund, FundCreator, Indexation

Abstract:
Since the publication of our first paper on hedge fund replication in 2005, our FundCreator methodology has met with many positive reactions. There have also been some negative responses though. With investors clearly becoming confused as a result of the amount of disinformation that is being circulated, in this short paper we address the 10 most common points of criticism. We argue that most of these are largely unjustified and fairly trivial at best and no reason whatsoever to doubt the capability of FundCreator to deliver exactly what it promises: returns with predefined statistical properties.

Hedge fund, synthetic fund, replication

Abstract:
In this paper we use the FundCreator hedge fund return replication technique recently introduced in Kat and Palaro (2005) to evaluate the net-of-fee performance of 875 funds of hedge funds and 2073 individual hedge funds, up to an including November 2006. Comparing fund returns with the returns on FundCreator-based dynamic futures trading strategies with the same risk and dependence characteristics, we find that no more than 18.6% of the funds of funds and 22.5% of the individual hedge funds in our sample convincingly beat the benchmark. In other words, the majority of hedge funds have not provided their investors with returns, which they could not have generated themselves by mechanically trading a diversified basket of liquid futures contracts. Over time, we observe a substantial deterioration in overall hedge fund performance. In addition, we find a tendency for the performance of successful funds to deteriorate over time. This supports the hypothesis that increased assets under management tend to endanger future performance.

Hedge fund, fund of funds, performance evaluation, replication

Abstract:
This paper proposes a method for estimating the VaR of a portfolio based on copula and extreme value theory. Each return is modeled by ARMAxGARCH models with the joint distribution of innovations modeled by copula. The marginal distributions are modeled by the generalized Pareto distribution in the left tail (large loss) and empirical distribution otherwise. The copula is estimated by an estimator which gives more weight to observations with large loss. The method is applied to a two-asset portfolio and compared to other traditional methods.

Conditional Copula, Risk Measures, Value at Risk, Extreme Value Theory

Abstract:
Value at Risk (VaR) plays a central role in risk management. There are several approaches for the estimation of VaR, such as historical simulation, the variance-covariance (also known as analytical), and the Monte Carlo approaches. Whereas the first approach does not assume any distribution, the last two approaches demand the joint distribution to be known, which in the analytical approach is frequently the normal distribution. The copula theory is a fundamental tool in modeling multivariate distributions. It allows the definition of the joint distribution through the marginal distributions and the dependence between the variables. Recently the copula theory has been extended to the conditional case, allowing the use of copulae to model dynamical structures. Time variation in the first and second conditional moments is widely discussed in the literature, so allowing the time variation in the conditional dependence seems to be natural. This work presents some concepts and properties of copula functions and an application of the copula theory in the estimation of VaR of a portfolio composed by Nasdaq and S&P500 stock indices.

Value-at-Risk, Copula, Multivariate Distribution Function