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Abstract:
This study considers the efficiency of banking in Australia during the post-deregulation period 1988-2001. Since 1986 restrictions upon foreign bank entry and foreign ownership have been effectively abolished. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malmquist Indices, we find that the new foreign banks are more (input) efficient than domestic banks, mainly due to their superior scale efficiency. However, this superior efficiency did not necessarily result in superior profits. Our results are consistent with the limited global advantage hypothesis of Berger et al (2000). We argue that the major Australian banks have used size as a barrier to entry to the new entrants in the post-deregulation period. Furthermore, bank efficiency seems to have increased post-deregulation and the competition resulting from diversity in bank types was important to prompt improvements in efficiency. Finally, the recession of the early 1990s resulted in a distinct shift in the process of efficiency changes.

Foreign Banks, Deregulation, Data Envelopment Analysis, Malmquist Indices

Abstract:
We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94. We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target countries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust predictors of exchange rate regime choice. Surprisingly, a more volatile foreign economy can be an argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime once similarities in the business cycle are taken into account. Comparable results hold for a variant of the model that focuses on nominal rather than real determinants. We also look at the impact of "mistakes" in exchange rate regime choice on actual (nominal) exchange rate volatility. Countries that deviate from the model's predicted regime by choosing fixed instead of floating exchange rates generally suffer higher exchange rate volatility than other countries having a fixed exchange rate regime. We also investigate the role of such mistakes in within - sample episodes of current-account crises.

Abstract:
We analyse whether central bank independence (CBI) affects inflation in developing countries. For this purpose we have constructed a new data set for the turnover rate (TOR) of central bank governors for a very large sample of countries, which also covers the 1990s. We find that once various control variables are included, the CBI proxy is often not significant. We also conclude that in those regressions in which the CBI proxy is significant, the coefficient of the TOR becomes significant only after high inflation countries are added to the sample.

Inflation, Central Bank Independence

Abstract:
Over the last decade, the simple instrument policy rule developed by Taylor (1993) has become a popular tool for evaluating monetary policy of central banks. As an extensive empirical analysis of the ECB's past behaviour still seems to be in its infancy, we estimate several instrument policy reaction functions for the ECB which might shed some light on actual monetary policy in the euro area in the recent past and answer questions like whether the ECB has actually followed a stabilising or a destabilising rule so far. Looking at contemporaneous Taylor rules, the presented evidence suggests that the ECB is accommodating changes in inflation and hence follows a destabilising policy. However, this impression seems to be largely due to the lack of a forward-looking perspective in such specifications. Either assuming rational expectations and using a forward-looking specification, or using expectations as derived from surveys, will result in Taylor rules which do imply a stabilising role of the ECB. The use of real-time industrial production data does not seem to play such a significant role as in the case of the U.S.

Taylor rule, European Central Bank, real-time data.

Abstract:
It is often argued that deregulation of international transactions and its effects on the "globalization" of financial markets is behind the decline in the attractiveness of fixed exchange rate regimes. We argue that, instead, much of the recently observed decrease in the level of capital controls should be seen as endogenous to the exchange rate regime decision. We find that the durability of a peg (measured on the basis of the growth of international reserves), the political benefits of a commitment to a peg, domestic and foreign inflation (aversion), as well as business cycle volatility and synchronization are the main determinants of capital controls. The empirical analysis is based on data for 53 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94.

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rates, Capital Controls

Abstract:
Using various indicators for economic freedom, it is shown that increases in economic freedom are robustly related to economic growth. This conclusion holds even if the impact of outlying observations is taken into account. The level of economic freedom is not related to economic growth.

Abstract:
This study applies parametric distance functions to estimate the efficiency of foreign banks in Australia, and subsequently employs extreme bounds analysis to establish the determinants of foreign bank efficiency that are robust to model specification. The limited global advantage hypothesis of Berger et al (2000) is supported. Following clients is found to reduce the efficiency of the profit-creation process. The market share of the incumbent banks acts as a barrier to entry to efficiency in the retail market, with acquisition of a domestic bank reducing this effect. Internet-based bank product delivery reduces the efficiency of profit creation in the initial phases of operation, and parent profits do not improve efficiency in the host market.

foreign bank efficiency, distance functions, extreme bounds analysis, barriers to entry, following clients

Abstract:
This paper examines how the pass-through of monetary policy measures in 6 EMU countries has evolved over time and whether there is convergence in monetary transmission. The countries included are: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, and the sample period is 1980-2000. We conclude that major differences in pass-through exist in our sample, both in terms of initial as well as long-run responses to policy-induced interest rate changes. There is no indication for convergence of monetary policy transmission.

Monetary Transmission, Pass-Through, Interest Rate Stickiness, EMU

Abstract:
According to the disciplining hypothesis, globalization restrains governments by inducing increased budgetary pressure. As a consequence, governments shift their expenditures in favour of transfers and subsidies and away from capital expenditures. This expenditure shift is potentially enhanced by citizens' preferences to be compensated for the risks of globalization ("compensation hypothesis"). Employing two different datasets and various measures of globalization, we analyze whether globalization has indeed influenced the composition of government expenditures. For a sample of 108 countries, we examine the development of four broad expenditure categories for the period 1970-2001: capital expenditures; expenditures for goods and services; interest payments; and subsidies and other current transfers. A second dataset provides a much more detailed classification: public expenditures, expenditures for defence, order, economic environment, housing, health, recreation, education, and social expenditures. However, this second data set is only available since 1990 - and only for the OECD countries. Our results show that globalization did not influence the composition of government expenditures.

globalization, economic policy, government expenditure composition, tax

Abstract:
According to the disciplining hypothesis, globalization restrains governments by inducing increased budgetary pressure. As a consequence, governments shift their expenditures in favour of transfers and subsidies and away from capital expenditures. This expenditure shift is potentially enhanced by citizens' preferences to be compensated for the risks of globalization ("compensation hypothesis"). Employing two different datasets and various measures of globalization, we analyze whether globalization has indeed influenced the composition of government expenditures. For a sample of 108 countries, we examine the development of four broad expenditure categories for the period 1970-2001: capital expenditures; expenditures for goods and services; interest payments; and subsidies and other current transfers. A second dataset provides a much more detailed classification: public expenditures, expenditures for defence, order, economic environment, housing, health, recreation, education, and social expenditures. However, this second data set is only available since 1990 - and only for the OECD countries. Our results show that globalization did not influence the composition of government expenditures.

globalization, economic policy, government expenditure composition, tax competition

Abstract:
We test whether, in addition to economic conditions, IMF credit is influenced by political factors. On the basis of a panel model for 128 countries over the period 1972-1998, we find that debt service scaled to exports, international reserve holdings scaled to imports and economic growth, as well as investment are robustly related to IMF credit supply. Arguably, these results are broadly consistent with the IMF's mission. The only political variables which appear to be related to changes in IMF credit are government stability, the quality of the bureaucracy, and a dummy variable indicating the extent of political opposition. Possible interpretations of these findings are discussed.

IMF Credit, Political Economy

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we survey the way in which the tax burden on labour has been proxied for in recent multi-country macro-economic studies. Second, we critically evaluate these proxies. Finally, we examine to what extent the conclusions of some studies change if some alternative indicator for the tax burden on labour is employed. We conclude that the widely used tax ratios as developed by Mendoza et al. (1994) may not be very reliable. The choice of the indicator for the tax burden on labour is also shown to affect the conclusions of some well-known empirical models.

Tax Ratios, Labour, Average Effective Tax Rates, Unemployment

Abstract:
We argue that in modelling cross-country growth models one should first identify so-called outlying observations. For the data set of Sala-i-Martin, we use the least median of squares (LMS) estimator to identify outliers. As LMS is not suited for inference, we then use reweighted least squares (RLS) for our cross-country growth models. We identify 27 variables that are significantly related to economic growth. Subsequently, applying Sala-i- Martin?s approach for the data set without outliers hardly reveals any additional information. Variables that are insignificant according to the RLS method are generally not significantly related to economic growth under the Sala-i-Martin approach.

Sensitivity analysis, outliers, economic growth

Abstract:
Using panel data for 188 countries over the period 1970-2002 this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the IMF and the World Bank on voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. Countries receiving adjustment programs and larger non-concessional loans from the World Bank vote more frequently in line with the average G7 country. The same is true for countries obtaining non-concessional IMF programs. Regarding voting coincidence with the US, World Bank (concessional and non-concessional) loans have a significant impact, while the IMF has not. These results are robust to the inclusion of control variables and method of estimation.

IMF, World Bank, UN General Assembly, voting, aid

Abstract:
This study examines the factors that determine difference in efficiency of foreign bank in the host market (Australia). The impact of home market, host market and parent bank characteristics are considered within the frameworks offered by comparative advantage and new trade theories. Parametric distance functions are used to estimate the efficiency of foreign banks in Australia, and the robustness of model specification is tested using both general to specific modelling and extreme bounds analysis. It is found that following clients reduces the efficiency of profit creation. Incumbent bank's market share acts as a barrier to entry, while parent bank profits do not improve host nation efficiency. The limited global advantage hypothesis was found to be relevant for banks from the United Kingdom, while banks from the United States were generally less efficient.

Foreign bank efficiency, distance functions, extreme bounds analysis, barriers to entry, following clients

Abstract:
We investigate whether temporary members of the UN Security Council receive favorable treatment from the IMF, using panel data for 191 countries over the period 1951 to 2004. Our results indicate a robust positive relationship between temporary UN Security Council membership and participation in IMF programs, even after accounting for economic and political factors, as well as regional and country effects, and duration dependence. There is also evidence that UNSC membership reduces the number of conditions included in IMF programs. The size of the loan, however, is not affected by UNSC membership.

IMF, UN Security Council, voting, aid

Abstract:
This paper estimates forward-looking Taylor rules for the euro area. Using the asymmetries in inflation and cyclical output developments across countries, we investigate the adequacy of the single monetary policy for each of the European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries. Notable differences emerge across the countries. Taking a euro area perspective, we also show that it depends upon the underlying country weighting scheme in the monetary decision process of the ECB whether or not there has been a synchronisation of business and inflation cycles among the EMU member countries over the years. Finally, we produce an estimate of the actual policy weights the ECB has implicitly attached to each of the member countries. Developments in small member countries have received more than proportional weights in actual monetary policy decisions of the ECB.

Taylor rule, monetary policy, ECB, stress, business cycle synchronisation

Abstract:
We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy stance suggests that developments in the monetary sector, while somewhat more important in the latter half of the sample, only played a minor role most of the time. Our estimates of ECB interest rate decisions suggest that the ECB's words (monetary-sector based policy intentions) are not an important determinant of its actions.

ECB, communication, monetary policy

Abstract:
We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy stance suggests that developments in the monetary sector, while somewhat more important in the later half of the sample, only played a minor role most of the time. Our estimates of ECB interest rate decisions suggest that the ECB's words (monetary-sector based policy intensions) are not an important determinant.

ECB, communication, monetary policy

Abstract:
This paper applies the method as developed by Havrilesky to examine whether a central bank responds to political pressure to the Bundesbank, which is widely believed to be one of the most independent central banks in the world. We construct an index for political pressure by counting the number of articles in three newspapers in which politicians or pressure groups argue in favor of a more or less restrictive monetary policy. We conclude that the Bundesbank did not respond to political pressure. However, its policies were in line with the wishes of the banking sector.

Bundesbank, monetary policy, political pressure

Abstract:
Recent literature proposes many variables as significant determinants of pollution. This paper gives an overview of this literature and asks which of these factors have an empirically robust impact on water and air pollution, i.e., do not depend upon the conditioning information set. For this, we apply Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA) on a panel of 208 countries covering the period 1960-2001. We find supportive evidence of the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve. Furthermore, mainly demographic variables and variables capturing the economic structure of a country contribute to explaining air and water pollution.

pollution, environment, sensitivity analysis, environmental Kuznets

Abstract:
This paper uses a new data set on the term in office of central bank governors in 137 countries covering the period 1970-2004 to estimate a model for the chance that a central bank governor is replaced. We formulate a number of hypotheses based on the literature on the determinants of central bank independence that are tested using conditional logit models and the Extreme Bounds Analysis. We conclude that, apart from the share of the current term in office elapsed, high levels of political and regime instability, the occurrence of elections, and high inflation increase the probability of a turnover.

central bank governors, central bank independence

Abstract:
This paper studies the information content of some Ifo indicators. In particular, we investigate whether two Ifo indicators, one on the current business situation, the other on current production development, provide information on revisions of German industrial production. A new feature of our analysis is the construction and use of a real-time dataset. We conclude that the Ifo indicators play a role in explaining revisions, but counterintuitively the business situation indicator performs better than the production indicator.

Ifo business survey indicators, German industrial production, real-time analysis, data revision

Abstract:
This paper introduces new data on the term in office of central bank governors in 137 countries for 1970-2004. Our panel models show that the probability that a central bank governor is replaced in a particular year is positively related to the share of the term in office elapsed, political and regime instability, the occurrence of elections, and inflation. The latter result suggests that the turnover rate of central bank governors (TOR) is a poor indicator of central bank independence. This is confirmed in models for cross-section inflation in which TOR becomes insignificant once its endogeneity is taken into account.

central bank governors, central bank independence, inflation

Abstract:
We investigate whether temporary members of the UN Security Council receive favorable treatment from the World Bank, using panel data for 157 countries over the period 1970-2004. Our results indicate a robust positive relationship between temporary UN Security Council membership and the number of World Bank projects a country receives, even after accounting for economic and political factors, as well as regional and country effects. The size of World Bank loans, however, is not affected by UN Security Council membership.

World Bank, UN Security Council, Voting, Aid

Abstract:
This study examines the factors that determine difference in efficiency of foreign bank in the host market (Australia). The impact of home market, host market and parent bank characteristics are considered within the frameworks offered by comparative advantage and new trade theories. Parametric distance functions are used to estimate the efficiency of foreign banks in Australia, and the robustness of model specification is tested using both general to specific modelling and extreme bounds analysis. It is found that following clients reduces the efficiency of profit creation. Incumbent bank's market share acts as a barrier to entry, while parent bank profits do not improve host nation efficiency. The limited global advantage hypothesis was found to be relevant for banks from the United Kingdom, while banks from the United States were generally less efficient.

Foreign bank efficiency, distance functions, extreme bounds analysis, barriers to entry, following clients

Abstract:
This paper tests the existence of strategic information complementarities as a source of sectoral comovement. A theoretical model derived in Veldkamp and Wolfers (2007) explains sectoral comovement by the assumption that firms rely too much on aggregate information to make output decisions. We find empirical support for this hypothesis: news on aggregate developments, on average, affect firms production plans significantly more than news on sector-specific developments. This result is based on a rich dataset on firm survey and media releases for Germany comprising 01/1999-07/2006.

Media reporting, news, expectation driven business cycles, information complementarities, sectoral comovement

Abstract:
This paper surveys recent evidence suggesting that market-oriented institutions and policies are strongly related to economic growth, focusing on studies using the economic freedom (EF) indicator of the Fraser Institute. This index is critically discussed. Also various serious shortcomings of empirical studies using this index are identified. Nevertheless, there are strong indications that liberalization, i.e. an increase in the EF index, stimulates economic growth. This paper also reviews studies on the determinants of EF. Political liberalization is often found to enhance economic liberalization, whereas there is less evidence for causality running in the other direction.

Abstract:
This paper analyses which economic and political factors affect the chance that a country receives IMF credit or signs an agreement with the Fund. We use a panel model for 118 countries over the period 1971-2000. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that it is mostly economic variables that are robustly related to IMF lending activity, while most political variables that have been put forward in previous studies on IMF involvement are non-significant. To the extent that political factors matter, they seem more closely related to the conclusion of IMF agreements than to the disbursement of IMF credits.

Abstract:
Most studies on the relationship between economic freedom and growth employ a measure of economic freedom based on an (ad hoc) aggregation of various underlying components. We argue that the alternative aggregation procedure as recently suggested by Heckelman and Stroup (2000) - in which aggregation is directly based upon the relevance of each component for growth, as determined by multivariate regression analysis - is seriously flawed. We present an alternative index based on latent variable estimation techniques. Using standard robustness analyses we find that this index of economic freedom is not robustly related to economic growth.

Abstract:
Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real time expected inflation and output are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President’s introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant.

ECB, central bank, communication, Taylor rule

Abstract:
In this paper, we provide empirical evidence for the influence of income taxes on the choice of residence of taxpayers at the local level. The fact that Swiss communities can individually set tax multipliers thereby shifting the progressive tax scheme which is fixed at the cantonal (state) level enables us to study the effect of differences in income taxation on individuals’ choice of location within an economically and culturally homogeneous region. Using panel IV regressions covering the years 1991-2003 and 171 communities in the Swiss canton of Zurich and spatial error regressions for the 171 communities in 2003, we find substantial evidence for income sorting.

tax competition, fiscal federalism, income segregation, income tax

Abstract:
This paper analyses revisions of Swiss current account data, taking into account the actual data revision process and the implied types of revisions. In addition we investigate whether the first release of current account data can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. An answer in the affirmative indicates that it is possible to improve first releases and thereby enhance the current assessment of the Swiss economy.

current account statistics, real-time analysis, data revisions

Abstract:
This paper analyses revisions of Swiss current account data, taking into account the actual data revision process and the implied types of revisions. In addition we investigate whether the first release of current account data can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. An answer in the affirmative indicates that it is possible to improve first releases and thereby enhance the current assessment of the Swiss economy.

current account statistics, real-time analysis, data revisions

Abstract:
This paper applies the method as developed by Havrilesky to examine whether a central bank responds to political pressure to the Bundesbank, which is widely believed to be one of the most independent central banks in the world. We construct an index for political pressure by counting the number of articles in three newspapers in which politicians or pressure groups argue in favor of a more or less restrictive monetary policy. We conclude that the Bundesbank did not respond to political pressure. However, its policies were in line with the wishes of the banking sector.

Bundesbank, monetary policy, political pressure

Abstract:
Using various indicators for economic freedom, it is shown that increases in economic freedom are robustly related to economic growth. This conclusion holds even if the impact of outlying observations is taken into account. The level of economic freedom is not related to economic growth.

Abstract:
This paper reviews empirical research on the impact of government capital spending on economic growth. The pros and cons of five different ways to model the relationship between public investment and economic growth are reviewed, while some estimation results are presented for illustrative purposes. We start with the production function approach in which the public capital stock is added as an additional input factor in a production function, which is then estimated at a national or regional level. Alternatively, a cost or profit function in which the public capital stock is included could be estimated by what we call the behavioral approach. A third way to examine the relationship between government investment and economic growth is the so-called VAR approach. By imposing as few economic restrictions as possible this approach tries to solve some of the problems raised by the production function and behavioral approach. The first three approaches are all based on time-series (or panel data). A fourth way to model the growth effects of public capital spending is to include government investment spending in cross-section growth regressions. Finally, some attempts to estimate the growth effects of public investment spending using structural econometric models are discussed.