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Abstract:
This paper reviews recent research on central bank independence (CBI). After we have distinguished between independence and conservativeness, the literature on optimal inflation contracts is discussed, followed by research in which the inflationary bias is endogenised. Finally, the various challenges that have been raised against previous empirical findings on CBI are reviewed. We conclude that the negative relationship between CBI and inflation is quite robust.

Abstract:
We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94. We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target countries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust predictors of exchange rate regime choice. Surprisingly, a more volatile foreign economy can be an argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime once similarities in the business cycle are taken into account. Comparable results hold for a variant of the model that focuses on nominal rather than real determinants. We also look at the impact of "mistakes" in exchange rate regime choice on actual (nominal) exchange rate volatility. Countries that deviate from the model's predicted regime by choosing fixed instead of floating exchange rates generally suffer higher exchange rate volatility than other countries having a fixed exchange rate regime. We also investigate the role of such mistakes in within - sample episodes of current-account crises.

Abstract:
We analyse whether central bank independence (CBI) affects inflation in developing countries. For this purpose we have constructed a new data set for the turnover rate (TOR) of central bank governors for a very large sample of countries, which also covers the 1990s. We find that once various control variables are included, the CBI proxy is often not significant. We also conclude that in those regressions in which the CBI proxy is significant, the coefficient of the TOR becomes significant only after high inflation countries are added to the sample.

Inflation, Central Bank Independence

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the development of the banking sector in European transition countries. We find that, although bank assets increased during the 1990s, credit to the private sector remained relatively low. Foreign-owned banks have become major players in the financial system of these countries. However, foreign bank presence and financial development in general vary considerably among the transition economies. Foreign-owned banks have, in general, higher profitability levels than domestic banks. Furthermore, it appears that foreign and domestic bank performance tend to converge.

financial development, financial institutions, foreign bank entry, transition economies, bank performance.

Abstract:
This paper evaluates the Stability and Growth Pact. After examining the rules in place and the experience so far, the Pact is analysed from a political economy perspective, focusing on the choice for so-called soft law and drawing inferences from characteristics of successful fiscal rules at the state level in the United States. It is also examined whether big and small countries are likely to adhere to fiscal policy rules in place. Furthermore, the impact of the business cycle on fiscal policy outcomes is analysed. Finally, the proposals of the European Commission to strengthen the Pact are discussed.

Stability and Growth Pact, EMU, budget discipline.

Abstract:
The recent wave of mergers and acquisitions in the European banking sector has raised concerns that bank profitability will rise because of less competitive market conditions. This paper analyses the relationship between concentration, competitiveness, efficiency and profitability in the European banking markets by using panel regressions in which estimates from various recent studies on competition and efficiency in national banking sectors are related to concentration and profitability indicators for these sectors. Our results do not suggest the existence of any connection at the macro-level between concentration and competition. There is also no robust relationship between concentration and profitability.

banking, concentration, competition, market structure

Abstract:
It is often argued that deregulation of international transactions and its effects on the "globalization" of financial markets is behind the decline in the attractiveness of fixed exchange rate regimes. We argue that, instead, much of the recently observed decrease in the level of capital controls should be seen as endogenous to the exchange rate regime decision. We find that the durability of a peg (measured on the basis of the growth of international reserves), the political benefits of a commitment to a peg, domestic and foreign inflation (aversion), as well as business cycle volatility and synchronization are the main determinants of capital controls. The empirical analysis is based on data for 53 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94.

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rates, Capital Controls

Abstract:
Using various indicators for economic freedom, it is shown that increases in economic freedom are robustly related to economic growth. This conclusion holds even if the impact of outlying observations is taken into account. The level of economic freedom is not related to economic growth.

Abstract:
In the wake of the ongoing global financial crisis, recently the European Commission has published a proposal for a European Parliament and Council Regulation on Credit Rating Agencies. With this proposal the European Union aims at addressing calls for more regulation of the (global) financial markets and overall improvements in the rating process of Credit Rating Agencies. According to some analysts, such as the Financial Stability Forum, poor credit assessments of complex structured credit products by Credit rating Agencies contributed to both the build up and the unfolding of the financial crisis.

The authors offer a first critical comparative examination of the proposed Regulation against the background of the current regime under the non-binding IOSCO Code of Conduct for Credit Rating Agencies. In doing so, answers are sought to the question, whether and to what extent the introduction of the envisaged regulatory framework will result in a more effective and efficient oversight over the activities of Credit Rating Agencies in the European Union. A certain degree of scepticism may be called for, as the proposed Regulation falls short of addressing some important shortcomings of the present regulatory framework, while the value added of the proposed regulatory framework may not necessarily outweigh its risks.

EU, financial market regulation, Credit rating Agencies, European Commission Proposal, Regulation on Credit Rating Agencies, Capital Requirement Directive, IOSCO Code, CEBS, CESR, FSF, ESME, supervisory regime, capital requirements, registration system

Abstract:
This paper examines how the pass-through of monetary policy measures in 6 EMU countries has evolved over time and whether there is convergence in monetary transmission. The countries included are: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, and the sample period is 1980-2000. We conclude that major differences in pass-through exist in our sample, both in terms of initial as well as long-run responses to policy-induced interest rate changes. There is no indication for convergence of monetary policy transmission.

Monetary Transmission, Pass-Through, Interest Rate Stickiness, EMU

Abstract:
This paper reports the results of a survey among private sector economists about credibility and transparency of central banks. In line with the survey of Alan Blinder among central bankers, we asked participants in Ifo's World Economic Survey to answer questions on the importance and determinants of credibility. The results of both surveys are very comparable. Credibility is considered to be important to attain price stability at low cost, while the best ways to earn credibility are a history of honesty and a high level of central bank independence. According to our respondents, the Federal Reserve is the most credible, transparent and independent central bank out of seven large central banks. The ECB is not perceived as highly credible or tranparent, even though our respondents consider it to be very independent.

Transparency, credibility, independence, monetary policy, ECB

Abstract:
We test whether, in addition to economic conditions, IMF credit is influenced by political factors. On the basis of a panel model for 128 countries over the period 1972-1998, we find that debt service scaled to exports, international reserve holdings scaled to imports and economic growth, as well as investment are robustly related to IMF credit supply. Arguably, these results are broadly consistent with the IMF's mission. The only political variables which appear to be related to changes in IMF credit are government stability, the quality of the bureaucracy, and a dummy variable indicating the extent of political opposition. Possible interpretations of these findings are discussed.

IMF Credit, Political Economy

Abstract:
Using 59 studies, we perform a meta regression analysis of studies examining the relationship between inflation and central bank independence (CBI). There is a negative and significant relation between inflation and CBI in OECD countries, although the results are sensitive to the indicator used and the estimation period chosen. Studies based on simple bivariate regressions suffer from an omitted variable bias, but our results suggest that only an interaction variable of labor market characteristics and CBI reduces the significance of the CBI indicator. We find no significant differences between studies based on a cross-country or panel settings. Interestingly, over time the reported impact of CBI on inflation in journal articles increases.

central bank independence, inflation, meta analysis

Abstract:
This paper studies the reaction of the mean and volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate to statements of ECB officials during the first years of EMU. We focus on statements on monetary policy and the (potential) strength of the euro. We find that the Bundesbank has dominated the news coverage. We conclude that ECB statements have mainly influenced volatility. In some cases there are effects of statements on the level of the euro-dollar rate. Efforts to "talk up" the euro have not been successful. There is also evidence of asymmetric reactions to news.

ECB, Euro, Foreign Exchange, News Approach

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we survey the way in which the tax burden on labour has been proxied for in recent multi-country macro-economic studies. Second, we critically evaluate these proxies. Finally, we examine to what extent the conclusions of some studies change if some alternative indicator for the tax burden on labour is employed. We conclude that the widely used tax ratios as developed by Mendoza et al. (1994) may not be very reliable. The choice of the indicator for the tax burden on labour is also shown to affect the conclusions of some well-known empirical models.

Tax Ratios, Labour, Average Effective Tax Rates, Unemployment

Abstract:
We argue that in modelling cross-country growth models one should first identify so-called outlying observations. For the data set of Sala-i-Martin, we use the least median of squares (LMS) estimator to identify outliers. As LMS is not suited for inference, we then use reweighted least squares (RLS) for our cross-country growth models. We identify 27 variables that are significantly related to economic growth. Subsequently, applying Sala-i- Martin?s approach for the data set without outliers hardly reveals any additional information. Variables that are insignificant according to the RLS method are generally not significantly related to economic growth under the Sala-i-Martin approach.

Sensitivity analysis, outliers, economic growth

Abstract:
Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication - mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this ever-growing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank's toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks' macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy.

Abstract:
This paper reviews recent developments in the management of government debt in the euro area, covering both theoretical and practical aspects. It focuses on key aspects of debt management; the objectives of debt management, its organisation, the maturity of debt, inflation-indexation, currency-denomination, the ownership of debt, and debt issuing and trading practices. Main adjustments include an increase in autonomy of debt management agencies, and a convergence in debt maturities and in debt issuing strategies. Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds and the use of interest rate swaps have increased strongly. While the share of government debt denominated in non-domestic currencies is falling, foreign ownership of euro area government debt is increasing markedly. The observed changes in recent years in part reflect the introduction of the euro and the related integration of European capital markets.

Abstract:
This paper examines whether there is a political budget cycle (PBC) in countries in the euro area. Using a multivariate model for the period 1999-2004 and various election indicators we find strong evidence that the Stability and Growth Pact has not restricted fiscal policy makers in the euro area in pursuing expansionary policies before elections. In an election-year - but not in the year prior to the election - the budget deficit increases. This result is in line with third generation PBC models, which are based on moral hazard. We also find a significant but small partisan effect on fiscal policy outcomes.

fiscal policy, political budget cycle, Stability and Growth Pact

Abstract:
Soon, euro area membership could more than double, with the vast majority of accession countries being quite different in economic terms compared with current members. Under the current decision-making system, this can lead to high decisionmaking costs and there is a risk that monetary policy could deviate from the targets specified in the Maastricht treaty. While centralization might be a "first-best" solution to these problems in many ways, there are possible disadvantages from a political economy perspective, including a potential conflict
with the established voting rights of current euro area member countries. An alternative solution to ensure the European perspective of decision-making in the ECB Council is to match economic size and voting power. One way to implement this principle is a rotation scheme for national central bank governors that takes economic differences between the member countries into account. The paper discusses various rotation schemes, also with a view to the decision-making cost argument.

European Central Bank, centralization of monetary policy, EMU, transition

Abstract:
In this paper we argue that in contrast to the conclusion of Artis and Zhang, there is not much evidence in support of the view that increased exchange rate stability is related to more synchronised business cycles in Europe. This finding may have important consequences, as existing differences in business cycles in the EMU-countries may not disappear due to further monetary integration, making a common monetary policy hazardous.

Abstract:
There exist many indicators for corporatism. Using a latent variables approach, we extract common aspects in 29 corporatism indicators which have been suggested in the literature and find two factors that can be identified as the degree of coordination between employers and trade unions, and the organizational power of labour. Using these factors in the model of Hall and Franzese (1998) employing data for 16 OECD countries, we find that the organizational power of trade unions does not affect inflation. Likewise, the interaction between central bank independence and coordination does not affect unemployment.

Corporatism, Latent Variables, Unemployment, Inflation

Abstract:
This paper re-examines the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for 21 OECD countries during 1970-2003. Instead of using instrumental variables, we estimate a multivariate model including variables capturing specialisation, financial integration, and similarity of economic policies. We confirm that trade intensity affects business cycle synchronization, but the effect is much smaller than previously reported. Other factors in our model have a similar impact on business cycle synchronization as trade intensity. Finally, we find that the effect of trade on business cycle synchronisation is not driven by outliers and does not suffer from parameter heterogeneity.

business cycles, trade, synchronization of business cycles

Abstract:
Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication - mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this evergrowing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank's toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks' macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy.

Communication, central bank, monetary policy

Abstract:
We examine the impact of various dimensions of financial reform on the likelihood of systemic and non-systemic banking crises. Using new financial reform measures for a large sample of developing and developed countries for the period 1973 to 2002, our multivariate probit modeling results suggest that conditional on adequate banking supervision, certain dimensions of financial reform reduce the likelihood of systemic crises. We also show that after a country has reformed, the introduction of further reforms becomes easier and leads to more stable financial systems. We also find some evidence that the likelihood of non-systemic crisis increases after financial reform.

Banking Crises, Financial Liberalization, Financial Fragility

Abstract:
We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy stance suggests that developments in the monetary sector, while somewhat more important in the latter half of the sample, only played a minor role most of the time. Our estimates of ECB interest rate decisions suggest that the ECB's words (monetary-sector based policy intentions) are not an important determinant of its actions.

ECB, communication, monetary policy

Abstract:
We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy stance suggests that developments in the monetary sector, while somewhat more important in the later half of the sample, only played a minor role most of the time. Our estimates of ECB interest rate decisions suggest that the ECB's words (monetary-sector based policy intensions) are not an important determinant.

ECB, communication, monetary policy

Abstract:
We develop multivariate measures of synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles. In addition to synchronicity, the co-movement measure takes differences between cycle amplitudes into account that have been overlooked in most previous studies. We apply the new measures to the euro area. Synchronicity and co-movement for the region as a whole do not exhibit a clear upward tendency. Although several countries saw the similarity of their business cycle vis-a-vis the euro area reference cycle increase, national business cycles remain fairly diverse. Changes in business cycle amplitudes cause most of the observed change in cycle co-movement.

business cycles, synchronisation, concordance, co-movement, cycle amplitudes, euro area

Abstract:
We review studies on monetary transmission in the EU countries using the VAR approach and analyse why they often lead to divergent outcomes. Firstly, we estimate 43 VAR models across ten EU countries and compare the robustness of the ranking of the magnitudes of the price and output responses. The main specification differences between the VAR models are the use of two different sample periods; the inclusion of additional variables; and the use of recursive, long run, and structural identification schemes. Secondly, we calculate rank correlations between the output and price responses of a recursive VAR and a structural VAR to the financial structure indicators used by Cecchetti (1999), who argued that legal systems cause financial structure, which in turn causes asymmetric transmission. In contrast to Cecchetti, we find that there is little correlation.

monetary transmission, VAR models, EMU

Abstract:
Using an improved definition and indicator of growth accelerations, we examine whether political regimes, regime changes, and economic reform are related to growth accelerations. Our results show that economic growth accelerations are preceded by economic reforms. Furthermore, we find that growth accelerations are more likely to happen after the start of a new political regime.

economic growth, growth accelerations, regime changes, economic reform

Abstract:
This paper revisits financial market integration in the European Economic and Monetary Union, using a threshold vector error-correction model (TVECM) for a fixed rolling window. This approach enables us to analyze the dynamics of transaction costs and detect any co-movements with (policy induced) changes in the financial environment. The TVECM methodology is applied on interest rates from different financial markets (government bonds, deposits, loans and mortgages) in Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands for the 1980-2006 period. Our main finding is that only for some country pairs and financial market segments there is evidence in support of financial integration.

interest rate linkages, financial integration, EMU, threshold vector error-correction

Abstract:
This paper applies the method as developed by Havrilesky to examine whether a central bank responds to political pressure to the Bundesbank, which is widely believed to be one of the most independent central banks in the world. We construct an index for political pressure by counting the number of articles in three newspapers in which politicians or pressure groups argue in favor of a more or less restrictive monetary policy. We conclude that the Bundesbank did not respond to political pressure. However, its policies were in line with the wishes of the banking sector.

Bundesbank, monetary policy, political pressure

Abstract:
This paper examines how the impact of financial crises on bank earnings volatility (proxied by the volatility of return on assets) varies with bank size and market concentration. Using fixed effects panel regression analysis for more than 1800 banks from OECD and non-OECD economies for the period 1998-2008, we find that large banks face lower earnings volatility in the wake of financial crises than small banks. Moreover, earnings volatility is lower in less concentrated banking systems. These results are robust to the use of absolute and relative bank size definitions, different types of banks, and various types of financial crisis.

bank size, financial crises, bank earnings, earnings volatility, bank risk

Abstract:
We examine the usefulness of communication by the European Central Bank for predicting its interest rate decisions. We use ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule which we estimate using statements by ECB officials as well as macroeconomic variables. Statements by ECB officials on the main refinancing rate and future inflation are significantly related to ECB decisions. However, an out-of-sample evaluation shows that communication-based models do not outperform models based on macroeconomic data in predicting decisions. Both sets of models only accurately predict decisions to leave interest rates unchanged.

ECB communication, interest rate decision, Taylor rule, ordered probit models

Abstract:
This paper studies ECB and Bundesbank communication on monetary policy during the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union. We study whether statements by different (groups of) central bankers have been contradictory and whether differences have diminished over time. We find that statements on the interest rate, inflation and economic growth have indeed been contradictory. Furthermore, national central banks continue to dominate communication on monetary policy. Finally, only the ECB Executive Board has observed radio silence before ECB Governing Council meetings. A positive conclusion is that, over time, interest rate statements have become less contradictory.

central bank communication, European Central Bank, Bundesbank

Abstract:
We analyze the microeconomic determinants of cross-border bank acquisitions in 16 transition economies over the period 1996-2006. By using a latent class discrete choice model we explicitly incorporate the macroeconomic and institutional heterogeneity of the transition economies into our analysis. We find that foreign banks target relatively large and efficient banks when they enter transition economies with weak institutions. This evidence provides support for the market power hypothesis. However, when foreign banks enter more developed transition economies that have made progress in economic reform, they acquire less efficient banks. This result is in line with the efficiency hypothesis.

cross-border bank acquisitions, latent class logistic model, transition economies

Abstract:
This paper uses a new data set on the term in office of central bank governors in 137 countries covering the period 1970-2004 to estimate a model for the chance that a central bank governor is replaced. We formulate a number of hypotheses based on the literature on the determinants of central bank independence that are tested using conditional logit models and the Extreme Bounds Analysis. We conclude that, apart from the share of the current term in office elapsed, high levels of political and regime instability, the occurrence of elections, and high inflation increase the probability of a turnover.

central bank governors, central bank independence

Abstract:
This paper introduces new data on the term in office of central bank governors in 137 countries for 1970-2004. Our panel models show that the probability that a central bank governor is replaced in a particular year is positively related to the share of the term in office elapsed, political and regime instability, the occurrence of elections, and inflation. The latter result suggests that the turnover rate of central bank governors (TOR) is a poor indicator of central bank independence. This is confirmed in models for cross-section inflation in which TOR becomes insignificant once its endogeneity is taken into account.

central bank governors, central bank independence, inflation

Abstract:
We examine the classical Gibrat's law or Law of Proportionate Effects (LPE) using Blundel and Bond (1998)'s two-step Generalized Method of Moments dynamic panel model for a mixed sample of more than 1500 banks in 29 OECD and 36 non-OECD countries. Our analysis show that size distribution of banks in OECD countries has converged to lognormal distribution over the last ten years but still remains peaked for non-OECD countries. Our dynamic panel estimation results find no evidence of persistence in bank growth but find a significant persistence in profitability of banks. Similarly, we also show that larger banks in OECD countries grow at lesser rates.

Bank Size, Bank Earnings, Earnings volatility, Bank Risk

Abstract:
We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor rule models. During the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union, comments by ECB Executive Board members and high-level Bundesbank policy-makers were more informative than comments by national central bank presidents. We also find that differences of opinion were informative when they concerned the outlook for economic growth. Finally, our results suggest that the ECB used communication especially to signal interest rate increases.

central bank communication, interest rate decisions, ECB, Taylor rule, ordered probit regression

Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of verbal interventions by European central bankers on high-frequency euro-dollar exchange rates. We find that ECB verbal interventions have had only small and short-lived effects.

Verbal interventions which are reported in news report headlines are more likely to be successful, whereas verbal interventions on days with releases of macroeconomic data are less successful. There is no difference in the effects of comments by members of the ECB Executive Board and presidents of national central banks.

Verbal intervention, high-frequency exchange rates, European Central Bank, sign test

Abstract:
Using daily data on inflation-indexed bonds, we find evidence of a negative relationship between ECB communication regarding risks to price stability - measured on the basis of the frequency and strength of the keyword 'vigilance' - and changes in euro area break-even inflation. However, this result is only found for the second half of 2005. At that time, the start of a tightening of ECB monetary policy was increasingly likely. This suggests that communication should be closely in line with policy actions before it can be effective. Still, we also find that the economic significance of this type of communication has been small.

central bank communication, ECB, inflation expectations

Abstract:
Transparency of central banks - defined here as the degree of genuine understanding of the monetary policy process and policy decisions by the public - has become a major issue. The authors use the term disclosure whenever we refer to the activities of a central bank to enhance the publics understanding of its policies. The European Central Bank (ECB) ranks high on our proposed central bank disclosure indicator.

Nevertheless, there is quite some evidence suggesting that financial markets do not consider the ECB to be very transparent. The paper zooms in on two issues that may be relevant to understand this paradox: the monetary policy strategy of the ECB and the role of newspapers as intermediary between the central bank and the public. The authors conclude that the two-pillar strategy hinders transparency. Focusing on articles in the Financial Times and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the authors also find that newspaper reports on ECB policy decisions are sometimes biased.

transparency, monetary policy, ECB, accountability, central bank, legal basis

Abstract:
This paper surveys recent evidence suggesting that market-oriented institutions and policies are strongly related to economic growth, focusing on studies using the economic freedom (EF) indicator of the Fraser Institute. This index is critically discussed. Also various serious shortcomings of empirical studies using this index are identified. Nevertheless, there are strong indications that liberalization, i.e. an increase in the EF index, stimulates economic growth. This paper also reviews studies on the determinants of EF. Political liberalization is often found to enhance economic liberalization, whereas there is less evidence for causality running in the other direction.

Abstract:
Using a newly developed database for eight transition economies, this paper examines whether reforms and political freedom are important for foreign bank entry. We provide evidence that foreign bank entry positively responds to reform measures. We also find some support for the importance of political freedom. Our estimates suggest that economic reform affects foreign bank entry by enhancing the efficiency of the financial sector and by stimulating domestic investments.

Abstract:
This contribution examines fiscal policy co-ordination in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and discusses whether the amendments of the Stability and Growth Pact proposed in the past, some of which have since been implemented, enhance budget discipline. In doing so, it provides a detailed analysis of the legal provisions on multilateral surveillance and the excessive deficit procedure based on the concepts of open and closed method of coordination. Arguably, it is the mixing of these two distinct concepts which stands at the heart of the current controversies. This has to be taken into account when assessing the recent proposals to introduce greater flexibility. Indeed, rather than introducing more flexibility, the analysis of the current system presented in this contribution suggests that those elements of economic coordination which prevent the existing rules from being implemented properly should be amended, thereby to some extent depoliticising economic coordination. The contribution begins with a discussion of the fiscal policy rules previously in place, followed by a political-economy analysis of these rules. Thereafter the reform proposals of the Commission, as well as other proposals for institutional reforms, including those originally foreseen in the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, are examined. It is concluded that the reforms of the pact do little to redress the failure of some Member States to consolidate their public finances in times of economic prosperity.

European Union, Economic and Monetary Union, economic policy, economic coordination, legal framework, Stability and Growth Pact, multilateral surveillance procedure, excessive deficit procedure, reform

Abstract:
This paper starts with a discussion of the various aspects of accountability of central banks. On the basis of this discussion we construct an indicator for accountability for 16 central banks, including the European Central Bank. It is shown that the degree of accountability differs considerably and that the ECB has a rather low score. The indicator is used to examine the relationship between central bank independence and accountability. It is concluded that although there appears to be a negative relationship between independence and accountability, this certainly does not imply that a central bank cannot be both independent and accountable.

Central banks, democratic accountability, independence, indicators, comparison, European Central Bank

Abstract:
Will further integration make business cycles in EMU countries more similar? This article answers the question by analysing to what extent business cycles in US and German states have become more synchronized and by examining whether synchronization in OECD countries is affected by trade intensity and exchange rate stability. Using long-run data for the US we find only mixed evidence for synchronization. However, post-war data for Germany suggest that business cycles behave more similarly over time. The evidence for OECD countries is mixed: trade intensity has led to more, and exchange rate stability to less, synchronization.

Abstract:
This paper analyses which economic and political factors affect the chance that a country receives IMF credit or signs an agreement with the Fund. We use a panel model for 118 countries over the period 1971-2000. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that it is mostly economic variables that are robustly related to IMF lending activity, while most political variables that have been put forward in previous studies on IMF involvement are non-significant. To the extent that political factors matter, they seem more closely related to the conclusion of IMF agreements than to the disbursement of IMF credits.

Abstract:
The European Central Bank (ECB) ranks highly on our proposed central bank disclosure indicator, measuring activities of central banks to enhance the public's understanding of their policies. Nevertheless, our survey evidence suggests that private-sector economists do not consider the ECB transparent. We argue that this may be caused by the quality of the information provided by the ECB. In addition, the way intermediaries report on the ECB may influence the public's perceptions. The ECB also does not rank highly in terms of credibility; still, most ECB policy decisions were in line with financial markets' expectations.

Abstract:
Recent studies yield diverging outcomes on the governance-growth relationship. In this paper we construct a new index of governance using a latent variable approach and test whether this index is related to growth with varying samples of countries and different conditioning variables. The results show that our index has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. This conclusion is fairly robust for various samples and conditioning variables.

Abstract:
Most studies on the relationship between economic freedom and growth employ a measure of economic freedom based on an (ad hoc) aggregation of various underlying components. We argue that the alternative aggregation procedure as recently suggested by Heckelman and Stroup (2000) - in which aggregation is directly based upon the relevance of each component for growth, as determined by multivariate regression analysis - is seriously flawed. We present an alternative index based on latent variable estimation techniques. Using standard robustness analyses we find that this index of economic freedom is not robustly related to economic growth.

Abstract:
Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real time expected inflation and output are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President’s introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant.

ECB, central bank, communication, Taylor rule

Abstract:
This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.

Abstract:
In this multidisciplinary contribution the authors argue both from a normative and economic perspective that the 2005 reform of the European Stability and Growth Pact, which is limited to an amendment of secondary Community law, cannot remedy the basic shortcomings of the rules on economic coordination in EMU in place. Although the reform results in some stricter obligations for the Member States and a sharpening of the multilateral surveillance procedure, a more flexible approach in dealing with excessive deficits in the Member States is introduced. As some of the new Member States, are likely to join the ranks of some of the old Member States, especially the large ones, in frequently running excessive deficits, lack of enforcement is aggravated.

European Union, Economic and Monetary Union, economic policy, economic coordination, legal framework, Stability and Growth Pact, multilateral surveillance procedure, excessive deficit procedure, reform

Abstract:
The European Central Bank (ECB) ranks highly on the author's proposed central bank disclosure inidcator, measuring activities of central banks to enhance the public's understanding of their policies. Nevertheless, the survey evidence offered in this contribution suggests that private-sector economists do not consider the ECB transparent. The authors argue that this may be caused by the quality of the information provided by the ECB. In addition, the way intermediaries report on the ECB may influence the public's perceptions. The ECB also does not rank highly in terms of credibility; still, most ECB policy decisions analysed in this contribution were found to be in line with financial markets' expectations.

European Law, European Central Bank, transparency, credibility, monetary policy, intermediaries, disclosure, monetary policy strategy

Abstract:
The importance of good governance for the health of populations has hardly been researched even though major donors and international financial institutions make their aid and loans increasingly conditional upon reforms that ensure good governance. We analyse the role of governance in improving the health of individuals using a cross-sectional analysis for 101 countries over the period 2000-2005. Instead of focusing on one particular indicator of population health like most previous studies, we employ 18 indicators. Explorative Factor Analysis shows that these variables are individually all good but imperfect indicators of the latent construct population health. Similarly, we employ 6 indicators of government governance. Also these indicators are all good but imperfect indicators of the latent construct governance. Our hypothesis is that good governance has a positive impact on the health of individuals, be it directly and/or indirectly through its impact on the health care sector or income. The selection of the control variables in our model is based on the general-to-specific approach. As both the dependent and some of the explanatory variables are latent variables, we use Structural Equation Modelling. Our results show that government governance is not directly related to the health of individuals once economic and demographic control variables are included. Indirectly, however, governance has influence on health via its positive impact on income and the quality of the health care sector. However, the significance of these indirect effects differs across country groups. In countries with a relatively healthy population, governance has a positive indirect effect through the quality of the health care sector, but not via income. In countries with poor health, governance has a positive indirect effect through income, but not via the quality of the health care sector.

Abstract:
We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus Economics data for expected inflation and output growth, and compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. We find that the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification, the coefficient of realized inflation is not significantly different from zero.

Abstract:
This article analyses the development of the banking sector in European transition countries. We find that, although bank assets increased during the 1990s, credit to the private sector remained relatively low. Foreign-owned banks have become major players in the financial system of these countries. However, foreign bank presence and financial development in general vary considerably among the transition economies. Foreign-owned banks have, in general, higher profitability levels than domestic banks. Furthermore, it appears that foreign and domestic bank performance tend to converge.

Financial development, Financial institutions, Foreign banks

Abstract:
This paper evaluates the Stability and Growth Pact. After briefly examining the rules in place and the experience so far, the Pact is analysed from a political economy perspective, focusing on the choice of hard versus soft law and drawing inferences from characteristics of successful fiscal rules at the state level in the USA. The main argument of the paper is that the Pact's enforcement mechanisms are too weak. It is also argued that big countries are less likely to adhere to the fiscal policy rules in place. Reform of the Pact should aim at stricter, instead of more flexible, rules and should not rely on cyclically adjusted deficit estimates.

Stability and Growth Pact, EMU, budget discipline

Abstract:
This paper studies the reaction of the conditional mean and volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate to statements by European Central Bank and national central bank officials. We focus on comments on monetary policy and the external value of the euro. We find that the Bundesbank has dominated the news coverage. We conclude that ECB statements have mainly influenced conditional volatility. In some cases there are effects of statements on the conditional mean of the euro-dollar exchange rate. Efforts to talk up the euro have generally not been successful. There is also evidence of asymmetric reactions to news.

ECB, exchange rates, Euro, news approach, EGARCH

Abstract:
Countries in transition often face high levels of inflation. This paper discusses two ways to reduce inflation: the creation of an independent central bank and the introduction of a currency board. It is shown that both options have advantages and disadvantages. This framework is used for a normative analysis of the policy choices of the Baltic states. It is argued that, while Estonia's currency board based on the D-mark is very much in line with the criteria for an optimal monetary regime, Lithuania's initial choice of a US-dollar based currency board is not. The peg to the SDR - which very much looks like a currency board - as (eventually) adopted by Latvia is an intermediate case. Some policy recommendations and the problem of exit strategies towards the Euro zone are discussed.

currency board, central bank independence, Baltics

Abstract:
This paper applies the method as developed by Havrilesky to examine whether a central bank responds to political pressure to the Bundesbank, which is widely believed to be one of the most independent central banks in the world. We construct an index for political pressure by counting the number of articles in three newspapers in which politicians or pressure groups argue in favor of a more or less restrictive monetary policy. We conclude that the Bundesbank did not respond to political pressure. However, its policies were in line with the wishes of the banking sector.

Bundesbank, monetary policy, political pressure

Abstract:
Using various indicators for economic freedom, it is shown that increases in economic freedom are robustly related to economic growth. This conclusion holds even if the impact of outlying observations is taken into account. The level of economic freedom is not related to economic growth.

Abstract:
This paper reviews empirical research on the impact of government capital spending on economic growth. The pros and cons of five different ways to model the relationship between public investment and economic growth are reviewed, while some estimation results are presented for illustrative purposes. We start with the production function approach in which the public capital stock is added as an additional input factor in a production function, which is then estimated at a national or regional level. Alternatively, a cost or profit function in which the public capital stock is included could be estimated by what we call the behavioral approach. A third way to examine the relationship between government investment and economic growth is the so-called VAR approach. By imposing as few economic restrictions as possible this approach tries to solve some of the problems raised by the production function and behavioral approach. The first three approaches are all based on time-series (or panel data). A fourth way to model the growth effects of public capital spending is to include government investment spending in cross-section growth regressions. Finally, some attempts to estimate the growth effects of public investment spending using structural econometric models are discussed.