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Abstract:
Subprime mortgage lending has grown rapidly in recent years and with it, so have concerns about predatory lending. In response to evidence of predatory lending, most states have enacted new laws or expanded existing laws to address abuses in the subprime home loan market. The effect of these statutes is a matter of debate. This paper seeks to improve the understanding of this increasingly important issue and pays particular attention to the role that legal enforcement mechanisms play in this context. Our results are consistent with the view that anti-predatory lending laws influence subprime lending markets and that disaggregating the details of the overall legal framework into its component parts is essential for understanding subprime market dynamics. The restrictions, coverage, and enforcement components all have significant relationships with subprime market outcomes, with the coverage relationship found to be broadly consistent with the reverse lemons hypothesis put forward by Ho and Pennington-Cross (2007). The results also suggest that the newer mini-HOEPA laws have had an impact on the subprime market above and beyond the older preexisting laws, particularly for subprime originations. Broader coverage through these new laws is associated with higher origination likelihoods, while increased restrictions through the mini-HOEPA laws are associated with lower origination propensities.

Subprime lending, enforcement mechanisms, predatory lending, anti-predatory lending laws, mortgage lending, homeownership

Abstract:
This paper investigates the Asian real estate price run-up and collapse in the 1990s. We identify financial intermediaries' underpricing of the put option imbedded in non-recourse mortgage loans as a potential cause for the observed price behavior. This underpricing is due to behavioral causes (lender optimism and disaster myopia) and/or rational response of lenders to market incentives (agency conflicts, deposit insurance, or limited liability of bank shareholders). The empirical evidence suggests that underpricing occurred in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Consequently, these countries experienced a more severe market crash than Hong Kong and Singapore, where underpricing was kept under control by strong government intervention and/or more appropriate incentive mechanisms.

Real estate bubble, lender optimism, disaster myopia, Asian financial crisis

Abstract:
Home mortgages have loomed continually larger in the financial situation of American households. In 1949, mortgage debt was equal to 20 percent of total household income; by 1979, it had risen to 46 percent of income; by 2001, 73 percent of income (Bernstein, Boushey and Mishel, 2003). Similarly, mortgage debt was 15 percent of household assets in 1949, but rose to 28 percent of household assets by 1979 and 41 percent of household assets by 2001. This enormous growth of American home mortgages, as shown in Figure 1 (as a percentage of GDP), has been accompanied by a transformation in their form such that American mortgages are now distinctively different from mortgages in the rest of the world. In addition, the growth in mortgage debt outstanding in the United States has closely tracked the mortgage market's increased reliance on securitization (Cho, 2004).

The structure of the modern American mortgage has evolved over time. We begin by describing this historical evolution. The U.S. mortgage before the 1930s would be nearly unrecognizable today: it featured variable interest rates, high down payments and short maturities. Before the Great Depression, homeowners typically renegotiated their loans every year.

We next compare the form of U.S. home mortgages today with those in other countries. The U.S. mortgage provides many more options to borrowers than are commonly provided elsewhere: American homebuyers can choose whether to pay a fixed or floating rate of interest; they can lock in their interest rate in between the time they apply for the mortgage and the time they purchase their house; they can choose the time at which the mortgage rate resets; they can choose the term and the amortization period; they can prepay freely; and they can generally borrow against home equity freely. They can also obtain home mortgages at attractive terms with very low down payments. We discuss the nature of the U.S. government intervention in home mortgage markets that has led to the specific choices available to American homebuyers. We believe that the unique characteristics of the U.S. mortgage provide substantial benefits for American homeowners and the overall stability of the economy.

home mortgages, mortgage debt, historical evolution of U.S. mortgage structure

Abstract:
Subprime lending in the residential mortgage market, characterized by relatively high credit risk and interest rates or fees, has developed over the past decade into a prominent segment of the market (Temkin (2000)). Recent research indicates that there is geographical concentration of subprime mortgages in Census tracts where there are high concentrations of low-income and minority households. The growth in subprime lending represents an expansion in the supply of mortgage credit among households who do not meet prime market underwriting standards. Nonetheless, its apparent concentration in minority and lower income neighborhoods has generated concerns that these households may not be obtaining equal opportunity in the prime mortgage market. Such lending may undermine revitalization to the extent that it is associated with so-called predatory practices.

Abstract:
Subprime lending has grown over the past decade into a highly visible part of the United States' mortgage market. Previous studies have shown that a relatively large share of subprime lending occurs in census tracts with high concentrations of low-income and minority households, generating the concern that minority households may not be provided equal opportunity in the prime mortgage market. This study expands the literature by utilizing data from the Census, HMDA, and proprietary data on neighborhood risk factors, to perform a spatial analysis of subprime lending across Census tracts, supplemented with a logit regression analysis at the borrower level. Results indicate that lending patterns across neighborhoods are strongly influenced by neighborhood risk composition. Across census tracts, increased credit risk is associated with a larger subprime share of loans in the tract or increased odds of subprime borrowing relative to prime. We also find a substantial concentration of subprime lending in neighborhoods where homeowners are predominantly African American, and we find that African-American borrower is strongly correlated with being a subprime borrower in the logit regressions, with or without the control variables.

Subprime lending, mortgage market, low-income households, minority households, mortgage lending patterns

Abstract:
Without regulation, securitization allowed mortgage industry actors to gain fees and to put off risks. During the housing boom, the ability to pass off risk allowed lenders and securitizers to compete for market share by lowering their lending standards, which activated more borrowing. Lenders who did not join in the easing of lending standards were crowded out of the market. Artificially low risk premia caused the asset price of houses to go up, leading to an asset bubble and breeding fraud. The consequences of lax lending were thereby covered up.

The market might have corrected this problem if investors had been able to express their negative views by short selling mortgage-backed securities, thereby allowing fundamental market value to be achieved. However, the one instrument that could have been used to short sell mortgage-backed securities - the credit default swap - was also infected with underpricing due to lack of minimum capital requirements and regulation to facilitate transparent pricing. As a result, there was no opportunity for short selling in the private-label securitization market. The authors propose countercyclical regulation to prevent a race to the bottom at the height of the business cycle.

Securitization, credit default swap, subprime, mortgage, asset bubble

Abstract:
The recent credit crunch, and liquidity deterioration, in the mortgage market have led to falling house prices and foreclosure levels unprecedented since the Great Depression. A critical factor in the post-2003 house price bubble was the interaction of financial engineering and the deteriorating lending standards in real estate markets, which fed onto each other, and caused an unsustainable rise in prices, and then collapse. Empirical evidence points to amplification in the correction of real estate prices as the direct result of the end of access to under-priced financing. Thus the pro-cyclicality of lending standards has been the driving factor in both the housing boom and subsequent collapse.

Real Property, real estate, realty, mortgages, housing prices, credit crunch, foreclosures, financial engineering, lending standards, housing market collapse, underpriced financing, interest only mortgages, negative amortization mortgages, leverage, cyclicality, housing bubble

Abstract:
This paper estimates, for 7 cities, a model of prime versus subprime allocation of loans in 1997 and 2002 based on both individual loan and neighborhood attributes. The paper is directly interested in the effect of neighborhood racial and ethnic composition on the likelihood of receiving a subprime loan. The paper also allows for interaction of borrower race and ethnicity with neighborhood attributes. A unique feature of the paper is that it provides additional neighborhood controls for the aggregate level of credit risk and the neighborhood level of equity risk.

The paper finds some evidence for tightening loan standards over the 5-year period in the subprime market. In both years, even with risk controls, the minority share of neighborhood is consistently significant and positively related to subprime share. Furthermore, neighborhood education level is consistently significant and negatively related to subprime lending.

Subprime mortgages, Mortgage lending and race, Mortgage lending and neighborhood

Abstract:
This article addresses the issue of how closely the fortunes of suburbs are tied to the fortunes of the central city. We develop housing price indices for most of the zip codes in California and use them in a clustering procedure to determine whether city and suburban housing markets naturally aggregate or move separately. We find that central cities tend to group with their suburbs, suggesting that the housing markets of cities and suburbs are closely linked.

Abstract:
This article describes the causes of the boom and bust in the U.S. housing market, which brought down not just the U.S. financial system but the global economy. How did this vicious cycle begin? How did home prices appreciate so far and so fast? Why did rational investors not recognize and stop mispricing and investing in these loans on Wall Street? We offer a supply-side explanation of the mortgage crisis. At the root of the crisis was a new class of specialized mortgage lenders and securitizers unrestricted by regulations governing traditional lending and securitization. Eager to take profits in an originate-to-distribute lending model, aggressive lenders piled in by offering loans with low upfront costs, attracting first-time home buyers previously unable to afford houses, repeat buyers buying pricier homes and second homes, as well as speculators. These practices drove prices particularly high in Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada, which had significant land-use regulations and environmental controls that reduced supply elasticity, leading increases in demand to trigger mostly higher prices instead of a greater supply of housing.

securitization, mortgages, subprime, bubble, housing finance, MBS, mortgage-backed securities, credit default swaps, mispricing

Abstract:
Subprime lending serves those with relatively high credit risk and therefore entails higher borrowing costs. This market has grown tremendously over the past decade, although with substantial variation in growth rates across the central cities of metropolitan areas in the US. Previous research has focused on specific cities and has shown that subprime lending historically occurs disproportionately in areas with higher risk, lower income and larger shares of minority households. This paper extends the literature by conducting a nation-wide study of how subprime lending patterns have changed over time across all US central cities. We find subprime lending growth is higher in urban census tracts with higher percentages of Hispanic population, lower levels of educational attainment, and, ceteris paribus, higher median family incomes.

subprime lending patterns, high credit risk, high borrowing costs, low income, minority, nationwide study, Hispanic, education, income

Abstract:
This paper establishes a theoretical and empirical link between the use of aggressive mortgage lending instruments, such as interest only, negative amortization or subprime, mortgages, and the underlying house price volatility. Such instruments, which come into existence through innovation or financial deregulation, allow more borrowing than otherwise would occur in previously affordability constrained markets. Within the context of a model with endogenous rent-buy decision, we demonstrate that the supply of aggressive lending instruments temporarily increases the asset prices in the underlying market because agents find it more attractive to own or because their borrowing constraint is relaxed, or both. This result implies that the availability of aggressive mortgage lending instruments magnifies the real estate cycle and the effects of fundamental demand shocks.

We empirically confirm the predictions of the model using recent subprime origination experience. In particular, we find that counties and cities that receive a high concentration of aggressive lending instruments experience larger price increases and subsequent declines than areas with low concentration of such instruments. This result holds in the presence of various controls and instrumental variables.

Real Property, real estate, realty, mortgages, housing prices, aggressive lending, interest only mortgages, negative amortization mortgages, leverage, real estate cycle, housing bubble, price peaks, price declines, negative demand shock

Abstract:
We investigate the market prices of assets in fixed supply whose purchase is typically financed through non-recourse loans. The largest and most common asset in this category is real estate. We demonstrate the following two important features of such markets:

- Lenders' underpricing of the put option contained in the non-recourse loans leads to inflated asset prices within efficient markets, and
- Under certain conditions, the presence of short-term players in the debt market induces all lenders to underprice the put option in equilibrium.

We further show that the probability of entering the "underpricing" equilibrium (i.e., all lenders underprice the put) increases with the time since the last negative demand shock, increases with the volatility of the asset market, and decreases with the size of the debt market. These results hold even when all participants in both equity and debt markets are fully rational. Furthermore, the model allows for management compensation that is aligned with maximizing bank shareholders' value. Using real estate transaction data we find strong empirical support for the predictions of the model.

Abstract:
In this paper, we develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the default spread in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using three different data sets for 18 countries and property types, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the "underpricing" economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced. Furthermore, only one of the countries in our sample continues to exhibit the underpricing symptom following a market crash. This indicates that market crashes have a cleansing effect and eliminate underpricing at least for a period of time. This makes investing in such markets safer following a negative demand shock.

real estate bubble, lender optimism, disaster myopia, Asian financial crisis

Abstract:
In this study, we test for the role of credit quality as a factor in limiting access to homeownership. While micro-level household data on wealth and income are available for assessing income- and wealth-based constraints to homeownership, lack of data on household credit ratings has precluded evaluation of credit quality as a potential barrier to homeownership. The study, for the first time, measures the relative importance of credit-, income-, and wealth-based constraints and estimates how the effects of these constraints have evolved over the past decade. The results show that financing constraints continue to have an important impact on potential homebuyers. The wealth constraint has the largest impact, although its importance declined substantially during the 1990s. Credit quality based constraints have become more important barriers to homeownership during the 1990s, mostly reflecting an increase in the number of households with impaired credit quality. Thus, both wealth and credit constraints persist as barriers to the attainment of homeownership.

Credit quality, homeownership, barriers to homeownership, household credit rating, financial constraints and homeownership

Abstract:
Lenders are frequently accused of mispricing the put option imbedded in non-recourse lending (Herring and Wachter, 1999 and 2003). Prior research (Pavlov and Wachter, 2004) shows one lender's incentives to underprice. Here we identify the conditions for a market-wide underpricing equilibrium. We demonstrate that in a market with many players, given sufficient time, a race to the bottom and market-wide mispricing are inevitable. Underpricing occurs because bank managers and shareholders exploit mis-priced deposit insurance. We show that the probability of the underpricing equilibrium increases with time since the previous market crash and that the more volatile the underlying asset market, the more likely it is subject to underpricing

mortgage underpricing, mortgage default

Abstract:
Despite national economic and real estate market trends that are not unique in U.S. history, the housing market woes of the United States appear to be developing into an historic, adverse episode. Indeed other countries have experienced the same fundamental forces and find themselves with nowhere near the level of U.S. economic repercussions and their housing markets are not nearly as threatened. We argue that the U.S. experienced a unique expansion of credit and deterioration of residential mortgage lending standards. This shift in the credit supply temporarily fueled housing prices beyond levels justified by favorable demographic and macroeconomic conditions. The subsequent withdrawal of credit has resulted in severe housing market declines as well as contributed to the adverse macroeconomic conditions that are in place today.

Real Property, real estate, realty, mortgages, housing prices, aggressive lending, credit expansion, lending standards, leverage, real estate cycle, housing bubble, housing market declines

Abstract:
In this paper, we develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the default spread in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using three different data sets for 18 countries and property types, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the "underpricing" economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced. Furthermore, only one of the countries in our sample continues to exhibit the underpricing symptom following a market crash. This indicates that market crashes have a cleansing effect and eliminate underpricing at least for a period of time. This makes investing in such markets safer following a negative demand shock.

real estate bubble, lender optimism, disaster myopia, Asian financial crisis

Abstract:
The present period of financial instability is also likely to become known as the end of an era, an era of economic calm and of policy consensus on how to maintain market stability. After World War II, the federal government operated on the Keynesian principles that the right mix of spending, regulation, and interest rates could tame economic cycles and eliminate surges of unemployment. In this period, now known as the Great Moderation, we assumed we knew how to prevent economic crises, such as the recurrence of the Great Depression. However, it is clear that those principles were erroneous as the economy has entered a lesser, but still severe downturn, the Great Recession. This paper looks at the sources of the ongoing economic crisis and points to the unique role in its origins of real estate asset bubbles and mispriced credit, not only in the origin of this crisis but of many financial crises. An analysis of the data points to the role of mispriced mortgage backed securities (MBS) in the spread of aggressive mortgage products and the unwarranted price speculation that resulted in massive foreclosures. In turn, the paper addresses the source of mispriced risk in MBS as incomplete markets in real estate and non-tradability of MBS and related securities which ultimately led to the collapse of financial system, threatening global economic health. The paper also suggests corrective measures that can and should be taken to assist the short and long term recovery.

Real estate, mortgages, housing, speculation, foreclosure, mortgage-backed securities, MBS, pricing of risks, default risk, incentive misalignments, underpriced credit, asset price inflation, market bubbles

Abstract:
With private-label mortgage-backed securities (MBS), investors bore default risk; while this risk should have been priced, as systemic risk grew, the pricing of risk did not increase. This paper attempts to explain why this happened. We point to market institutions’ incentive misalignments that cause asset prices to rise above fundamentals, producing systemic risk. The model attributes the asset price inflation to the provision of underpriced credit as lending institutions misprice risk to gain market share. The resulting asset price inflation itself then generates further expansion of underpriced credit.

Real estate, mortgages, housing, mortgage-backed securities, pricing of risks, default risk, incentive misalignments, underpriced credit, asset price inflation, market bubbles

Abstract:
What impact does immigration have on neighborhood dynamics? Within metropolitan areas, we find that housing values have grown relatively more slowly in neighborhoods of immigrant settlement. We propose three nonexclusive explanations: changes in housing quality, reverse causality, or the hypothesis that natives find immigrant neighbors relatively less attractive (native flight). To instrument for the actual number of new immigrants, we deploy a geographic diffusion model that predicts the number of new immigrants in a neighborhood using lagged densities of the foreign-born in surrounding neighborhoods. Subject to the validity of our instruments, the evidence is consistent with a causal interpretation of an impact from growing immigration density to native flight and relatively slower housing price appreciation. Further evidence indicates that these results may be driven more by the demand for residential segregation based on race and education than by foreignness per se.

Immigration, housing prices

Abstract:
Rapidly changing credit and housing market conditions of the past fifteen years have markedly impacted home ownership rates. Home ownership rates in the United States have increased steadily and significantly from 1995 to 2004, from 64 percent to 69 percent. No additional increase in home ownership, in the aggregate, occurred with the expansion of non prime lending after 2004. By year-end 2008, the overall U.S. home ownership rate had fallen to a level below that of 2002. As delinquencies and foreclosures mount, putting the nation's homeowners and the economy at risk, home ownership rates continue to decline.

We review the evidence pertaining to home ownership rates, explore the possible role of financial institutions in increasing home ownership in sustainable and unsustainable ways, and address the role of regulation. We review evidence suggesting how flexible lending initiatives have expanded access to home ownership. We also examine the role of non prime lending and the consequences of housing market price instability for home ownership. Fluctuations in the availability of credit for home ownership, and the global credit market collapse raise questions that we cannot answer here about the mistakes that have contributed to the current housing crisis. Nonetheless, evidence on market outcomes allows us at least to raise such questions, and explore the role of regulation in supporting responsible mortgage lending that encourages sustainable home ownership.

Homeownership, Mortgage Lending, Subprime Lending

Abstract:
We investigate the correlation between curb-side tree plantings and housing price movements in Philadelphia from 1998 to 2003, comparing two programs, one by the Philadelphia Horticultural Society that requires block-group effort that focuses on low-income neighbourhoods and the other by the Fairmount Park Commission that is individual-based without specific target areas. A 7 to 11 percent price differential is identified within 4000 ft of the Fairmount tree plantings. We argue that this is largely driven by either social capital creation or a signaling mechanism, on the top of an intrinsic tree value (around 2 percent). Findings using the PHS tree program suggest that development of social capital or environmentally-conscious behavior might be a less important channel. Any positive changes brought by the PHS tree plantings were not detected with sufficient statistical power.

Housing price, social capital, signaling, tree planting

Abstract:
While other countries dismantled their segmented housing finance systems and linked housing finance to capital markets through deregulated depositories, the US linked housing finance to capital markets through depository deregulation and securitization. Elsewhere securitization has not developed. The US provided the underpinnings for its mortgage security infrastructure with the creation of FNMA in 1938 and in order to create liquidity in the mortgage market required the standardization of mortgage documentation and more fundamentally required that home mortgages within securities would be sufficiently homogeneous that they could trade in liquid markets. These developments allowed 22 years of uninterrupted liquidity in the market for conventional conforming mortgages, to be followed by the creation of a subprime mortgage market backed by securities that were illiquid, nonstandardized and marked to model not to market which allowed systemic underpricing of risk. This paper presents the recent history of the linkage of mortgage funding to financial markets in the US and elsewhere and specifically in the US suggests how the housing finance revolution resulted in the "terror" which has brought down global financial markets.

Real estate, mortgages, housing, capital markets, securitization, mortgage security infrastructure, liquidity, subprime mortgage-backed securities, MBS, marked to model, systemic underpricing of risk, speculation, pricing of risks, default risk, underpriced credit

Abstract:
Mounting foreclosures and recent disclosures of abusive lending practices have led many states to adopt new anti-predatory lending laws. Researchers have examined the impact of such laws on credit flows and the cost of credit. This research extends the literature by examining if the market responded to these laws by substituting different mortgage products for those restricted by anti-predatory lending provisions. The evidence indicates that the new laws were effective in restricting loans with targeted characteristics and that the market substituted other product types to maintain affordability in the face of these restrictions.

Real estate, mortgages, housing, abusive lending, predatory lending, mortgage products, product substitution, adjustment to prohibition

Abstract:
This paper provides a conceptual basis for the price discovery potential for tradable market instruments and specifically the development of mortgage securitization in Asia and the potential dangers of such markets. Nonetheless we argue for the potential importance of securitization in Asia because of its possible role in increasing transparency of the financial sector of Asian economies. We put forth a model explaining how misaligned incentives can lead to bank generated real estate crashes and macroeconomic instability, with or without securitization under certain circumstances. We examine the banking sector's performance in Asia compared to securitized real estate returns, to provide evidence on the contribution of misaligned incentives in the past. We discuss how the addition of liquid MBS could help to inoculate markets from the shocks arising from bank-financed mortgage lending. We conclude with a brief discussion of current MBS markets in Asia.

real estate, mortgage securitization, banking, instability, mortgage-backed securities, MBS markets, Asia

Abstract:
This paper establishes a theoretical and empirical link between the use of aggressive mortgage lending instruments, such as interest only, negative amortization or subprime, mortgages, and the underlying house prices. Such instruments, which come into existence through innovation or financial deregulation, allow more borrowing than otherwise would occur in previously affordability constrained markets. Within the context of a model with an endogenous rent-buy decision, we demonstrate that the supply of aggressive lending instruments temporarily increases the asset prices in the underlying market because agents find it more attractive to own or because their borrowing constraint is relaxed, or both. This result implies that the availability of aggressive mortgage lending instruments magnifies the real estate cycle and the effects of fundamental demand shocks. We empirically confirm the predictions of the model using recent subprime origination experience. In particular, we find that regions that receive a high concentration of aggressive lending instruments experience larger price increases and subsequent declines than areas with low concentration of such instruments. This result holds in the presence of various controls and instrumental variables.

housing, real property, mortgages, house prices, interest only loans, negative amortization, aggressive lending instruments, innovation, financial deregulation, empirical, underpriced credit, asset price inflation, market bubbles

Abstract:
We analyze the relationship between underwriting standards and low-income homeownership rates using the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The survey respondents are a nationally representative sample of Americans mostly 40-48 years of age as of the most recent wave of the survey in 2004. Past research has identified credit impairment, wealth constraints, and income constraints as finance-related barriers to homeownership. Using a model of tenure choice, we find that absent all three constraints, the homeownership rate of low-income households in our sample would increase from 52.5 to 59.3 percent. Approximately half of this differential is attributable to households with impaired credit and those with 'thin-file status,' the lack of a substantial credit history.

real estate, housing, barriers to homeownership, underwriting standards, credit history, low-income homeownership, choice of property tenure, property forms

Abstract:
In this paper we analyze the factors that affect the tenure choice of young adults, highlighting the impact of mortgage lender imposed borrowing constraints. The data set is a panel of youth age 20-33 for the years 1985-90. Our methods differ from most prior studies in many ways including consideration of possible sample selection bias, a richer model of the stochastic error structure, better measurement of which households are bound by borrowing constraints, and a fuller consideration of the endogeneity of wealth and income. Once all changes are implemented, we find ownership tendencies to be quite sensitive to economic variables. Specifically, potential earnings, the relative cost of owning a home, and especially borrowing constraints affect the tendency to own a home. In our sample of youth, 37% of households are constrained even after choosing their loan-to-value ratio to minimize the impact of the separate wealth and income requirements. The constraints reduce the probability of ownership of these households by 10 to 20 percentage points (a third to a half) depending on the particular characteristics of the household.

Abstract:
This paper describes the real wealth accumulation of American youth and relates this behavior to variations in real constant-quality house prices in their localities of residence. We argue that increases in the real constant-quality house price have two offsetting effects on wealth. First, the greater the local constant-quality price of housing, the greater the wealth needed to meet the lender imposed down payment constraint if housing demand is price inelastic. However, increased real constant-quality house price reduces the likelihood of home ownership and thus the desire the accumulate wealth needed for a down payment.

Using a panel data set for youth age 20-33 for the years 1985 through 1990 we find that the combined direct and indirect impact of variations in real constant-quality house price on wealth is modest for changes near the average real house price, but youths' wealth declines substantially in areas with high real house price.

Abstract:
This paper describes the wealth accumulation of American youth and relates this behavior to their eventual housing choices. We develop a data set that links wealth profiles of youth with constant- quality house prices and tenure choice. A panel data set is compiled for youth age 20-33 for the years 1985 through 1990. We construct wealth profiles for each household over the six year period and indicate how wealth varies with labor supply, marriage, fertility, gender, education, race/ethnicity, and tenure choice. We find renters' wealth accumulates rapidly in the year before and year of first homeownership. The factors related to this increase are marriage, increased labor supply by married women, and gifts/inheritances. Of particular interest is the finding of an inverse U-shaped relationship between the local real price of housing and middle and upper income renters' wealth and married female labor supply. Also, youth in high housing cost localities tend to live in groups at a greater rate compared to those in low cost areas.

Abstract:
This article describes the wealth accumulation of American youth and relates it to their eventual housing choices. A data set is compiled for youth ages 20 to 33 for the years 1985 through 1990. We construct wealth profiles for each household and compare these profiles across different patterns of labor supply, marriage, fertility, gender, education, race/ethnicity, and tenure choice. We find that renters' wealth accumulates rapidly in the year before and year of first homeownership. The factors related to this increase are marriage, increased labor supply by married women, and gifts and inheritance. Of particular interest is the finding of an inverse U-shaped relationship between the local price of housing and middle- and upper-income renters' wealth. However, there is no relationship between these variables for low-income renters. One difference between these groups is that low-income renters have no tax advantage once they become homeowners.

Abstract:
Lenders are frequently accused of mispricing the put option embedded in nonrecourse lending. Prior research shows one lender's incentives to underprice. Here, we identify the conditions for a marketwide underpricing equilibrium. We demonstrate that, in a market with many players, given sufficient time, a race to the bottom and marketwide mispricing are inevitable. Underpricing occurs because bank managers and shareholders exploit mispriced deposit insurance. We show that the probability of the underpricing equilibrium increases with time since the previous market crash and that the more volatile the underlying asset market, the more likely it is subject to underpricing.

Abstract:
In this paper we offer direct evidence that financial intermediation does impact underlying asset markets. We develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the put option imbedded in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using a dataset for 19 countries and over 500 real estate investment trusts, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the "underpricing" economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced.

real estate bubble, mortgage lending put options, Asian financial crisis

Abstract:
We investigate the correlation between curbside tree plantings and housing price movements in Philadelphia from 1998 to 2003, comparing two programs, one by the Philadelphia Horticultural Society (PHS) that requires block-group effort that focuses on low-income neighborhoods and the other by the Fairmount Park Commission that is individual-based without specific target areas. A 7 to 11% price differential is identified within 4,000 feet of the Fairmount tree plantings. We argue that this is largely driven by either social capital creation or a signaling mechanism, on top of an intrinsic tree value (around 2%). Findings using the PHS tree program suggest that development of social capital or environmentally conscious behavior might be a less important channel. Any positive changes brought by the PHS tree plantings were not detected with sufficient statistical power.

Abstract:
We investigate the market prices of assets in fixed supply whose purchase is typically financed through non-recourse loans. The largest and most common asset in this category is real estate. We demonstrate two features of such markets: Lenders' underpricing of the put option contained in non-recourse loans leads to inflated asset prices within efficient markets, and lenders with short-term horizons have incentives to underprice the put option. These results hold when participants in both equity and debt markets are rational. The model also allows for management compensation that is aligned with maximizing bank shareholders' value. Using real estate transaction data we find empirical evidence consistent with the predictions of the model.

asset pricing, lending markets, price bubbles

Abstract:
The rate of homeownership among African-American households is considerably lower than white households in American urban areas. This paper examines whether racial differences in residential location outcomes are among the factors that contribute to the large racial differences in homeownership rates in major US metropolitan areas. Based on the 1985 metropolitan sample of the American Housing Survey for Philadelphia, the paper does not find any evidence that existing racial differences in residential location in Philadelphia decrease the homeownership rate among African Americans. Rather, the empirical evidence suggests that African-American residential location outcomes are associated with lower than expected racial differences in homeownership. Therefore, after controlling for neighborhood, racial differences in homeownership are larger than originally believed, and the ability of racial differences in endowments to explain homeownership differences is more limited.

Homeownership, Residential Location, Race, Credit Constraints, Equity Risk

Abstract:
This paper examines anisotropic spatial autocorrelation in single-family house prices and in hedonic house price equation residuals using a spherical semivariogram and transactions data for one county in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania MSA. Isotropic semivariograms model spatial relationships as a function of the distance separating properties in space. Anisotropic semivariograms model spatial relationships as a function of both the distance and the direction separating observations in space. The goals of this paper are: (1) to determine whether there is spatial autocorrelation in hedonic house price equation residuals; and (2) to empirically examine the validity of the isotropy assumption. We estimate the parameters of spherical semivariograms for house prices and for hedonic house price equation residuals for 21 housing submarkets within Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. These housing submarkets are constructed by dividing the county into 21 groupings of economically similar adjacent census tracts. Census tracts are grouped according to 1990 census tract median house prices and according to characteristics of the housing stock. We fit the residuals of each submarket hedonic house price equation to both isotropic and anisotropic sepherical semivariograms. We find evidence of spatial autocorrelation in the hedonic residuals in spite of a very elaborate hedonic specification. Additionally, we have determined that, in some submarkets, the spatial autocorrelation in the hedonic residuals is anisotropic rather than isotropic. The empirical results suggest that the spatial autocorrelation in Montgomery County single-family house price equation residuals is anisotropic in submarkets where residents typically commmute to a regional or local Central Businss District (CBD).

spatial autocorrelation, house price indices

Abstract:
The real estate industry has recently witnessed significant and pervasive consolidation with further growth and consolidation generally viewed as a foregone conclusion. For example, between 1990 and 1997, growth in average net real estate investments by large REITs outpaced growth in average net real estate investments by small REITs by 13 percent. However, no systematic study of the benefits of this consolidation exists. This research studies whether or not there are gains to consolidation due to economies of scale from size, brand imaging, and informational gains from geographic specialization. Our sample consists of 41 multifamily equity REITs, for whom finanical and property level data are available in the SNL REIT Database. Using this data, we construct 'shadow' portfolios that mimic each REIT's exposure to changes in local market conditions. Our results show no size economies, that branding in real estate is allusive, and that geographic specialization, in agreement with Gyourko and Nelling (1993), has no significant benefit.

REITs, Economies of Scale

Abstract:
This study examines the performance of home purchase loans originated by a major depository institution in Philadelphia under a flexible lending program between 1988 and 1994. We examine long-term delinquency in relation to neighborhood housing market conditions, borrower credit history scores, and other factors.

We find that likelihood of delinquency declines with the level of neighborhood housing market activity. Also, likelihood of delinquency is greater for borrowers with low credit history scores and those with high ratios of housing expense to income, and when the property is unusually expensive for the neighborhood where it is located.

Abstract:
A clustering algorithm is applied to effective rents for twenty-one U.S. office markets, and to twenty-two metropolitan markets using vacancy data. It provides support for the conjecture that there exists a few major families of cities: including an oil and gas group and an industrial Northeast group. Unlike other clustering studies, we find strong evidence of bicoastal city associations among cities such as Boston and Los Angeles. We present a bootstrapping methodology for investigating the robustness of the clustering algorithm, and develop a means for testing the significance of city associations. While the analysis is limited to aggregate rent and vacancy data, the results provide a guideline for the further application of cluster analysis to other types of real estate and economic information.

Abstract:
This paper addresses the issue of how closely the fortunes of suburbs are tied to the fortunes of the central city. We use similarities in residential housing price dynamics as a measure of how closely the economies of cities and suburbs are related. We develop housing price indices for most of the zip codes in California, and use these in a clustering procedure to see whether cities and suburbs naturally aggregate together, or whether they move separately. We find that central cities tend to aggregate with their suburbs suggesting that the fortunes of the cities and suburbs are closely linked. We find evidence of a two-tiered structure to suburbs. While nearby suburbs continue to group with their metropolitan core, extended suburban economies comprised mostly of affluent neighborhoods, may be "drifting away" from the central cities.

Abstract:
We investigate the correlation between curb-side tree plantings and housing price movements in Philadelphia from 1998 to 2003, comparing two programs, one by the Philadelphia Horticultural Society that requires block-group effort that focuses on lowincome neighbourhoods and the other by the Fairmount Park Commission that is individual-based without specific target areas. A 7 to 11 percent price differential is identified within 4000ft of the Fairmount tree plantings. We argue that this is largely driven by either social capital creation or a signaling mechanism, on the top of an intrinsic tree value (around 2 percent). Findings using the PHS tree program suggest that development of social capital or environmentally-conscious behavior might be a less important channel. Any positive changes brought by the PHS tree plantings were not detected with sufficient statistical power.

Abstract:
We investigate the correlation between curb-side tree plantings and housing price movements in Philadelphia from 1998 to 2003, comparing two programs, one by the Philadelphia Horticultural Society that requires block-group effort that focuses on low-income neighbourhoods and the other by the Fairmount Park Commission that is individual-based without specific target areas. A 7 to 11 percent price differential is identified within 4000 ft of the Fairmount tree plantings. We argue that this is largely driven by either social capital creation or a signaling mechanism, on the top of an intrinsic tree value (around 2 percent). Findings using the PHS tree program suggest that development of social capital or environmentally-conscious behavior might be a less important channel. Any positive changes brought by the PHS tree plantings were not detected with sufficient statistical power.