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Abstract:
The yield curve?specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill?is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.

Abstract:
In recent years we have seen a growing number of banking and financial crises in emerging market countries, with great costs to their economies. But we now have a much better understanding of why these crises occur and a better idea how they can be prevented.

Mishkin defines a financial crisis as a disruption in financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to efficiently channel funds to those who have the most productive investment opportunities. As financial markets become unable to function efficiently, economic activity sharply contracts. Factors that promote financial crises include, mainly, a deterioration in financial sector balance sheets, increases in interest rates and in uncertainty, and deterioration in nonfinancial balance sheets because of changes in asset prices.

Financial policies in 12 areas could help make financial crises less likely in emerging market economies, says Mishkin. He discusses:

- Prudential supervision.

- Accounting and disclosure requirements.

- Legal and judicial systems.

- Market-based discipline.

- Entry of foreign banks.

- Capital controls.

- Reduction of the role of state-owned financial institutions.

- Restrictions on foreign-denominated debt.

- The elimination of too-big-to-fail practices in the corporate sector.

- The proper sequencing of financial liberalization.

- Monetary policy and price stability.

- Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange reserves.

If the political will to adopt sound policies in these areas grows in emerging market economies, their financial systems should become healthier, with substantial gains both from greater economic growth and smaller economic fluctuations.

This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department - was prepared for the NBER conference, "Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," Woodstock, Vermont, October 19-21, 2001. The author may be contacted at fsm3@columbia.edu.

Abstract:
Experience with monetary targeting suggests that although it successfully controlled inflation in Switzerland and especially Germany, the special conditions that made it work reasonably well in those two countries are unlikely to be satisfied elsewhere. Inflation targeting is more likely to improve economic performance in countries that choose to have an independent domestic monetary policy, but there are subtleties in how inflation targeting is done. Lessons from industrial countries should be useful to central banks designing a framework for monetary policy. Mishkin examines changes in monetary policy in industrial countries by evaluating and providing case studies of monetary targeting and inflation targeting.

Inflation targeting has successfully controlled inflation, with some qualifications. It weakens the effects of inflationary shocks, as examples from Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom show. It can promote growth and does not lead to increased fluctuations in output. But inflation targets do not necessarily reduce the cost of reducing inflation.

The key to the success of inflation targeting is its stress on transparency and communication with the public. Inflation targeting increases accountability, which helps ameliorate the time-inconsistency trap (in which the central bank tries to expand output and employment in the short run by pursuing overly expansionary monetary policy). Time-inconsistency is more likely to come from political pressures on the central bank to engage in overly expansionary monetary policy. A key advantage of inflation targeting is that it helps focus the political debate on what a central bank can do in the long run (control inflation) rather than what it cannot do (raise economic growth and the number of jobs permanently through expansionary monetary policy).

By increasing transparency and accountability, inflation targeting helps promote central bank independence. Accountability to the general public seems to work as well as direct accountability to the government. Inflation targeting is consistent with democratic principles. In discussing operational design, Mishkin explains, among other things, that

- Inflation targeting is far from a rigid rule.

- Inflation targets have always been above zero with no loss of credibility.

- Inflation targeting does not ignore traditional stabilization goals.

- Avoiding undershoots of the inflation target is as important as avoiding overshoots.

- When inflation is initially high, inflation targeting may have to be phased in after disinflation.

- The edges of the target range can take on a life of their own.

- Targeting asset prices such as the exchange rate worsens performance.

This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department - was prepared for the Bank of Mexico conference Stabilization and Monetary Policy: The International Experience, Mexico City, November 14-15, 2000. The author may be contacted at fsm3@columbia.edu.

Abstract:
In recent years, the traditional business of banks - making long-term loans and funding them by issuing short - dated deposits-has declined. This development has raised concerns that more banks will fail or be forced to assume greater risk to remain profitable. This article first examines the economic forces responsible for banks' reduced role in financial intermediation. The authors then consider whether banks may be jeopardizing the stability of the financial system by extending riskier loans or engaging in derivatives dealing and other 'nontraditional' financial activities that bring higher returns but could carry greater risk. The authors conclude that because most nontraditional activities expose banks to risks and moral hazard problems similar to those associated with banks' traditional activities, the new activities can be regulated as effectively as the old.

nontraditional financial activities, risk, regulation

Abstract:
Instead of focusing the debate about the conduct of monetary policy on whether the nominal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible, the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking. Three frameworks deserve serious discussion as possible long-run strategies for monetary policy in Latin America: A hard exchange-rate peg, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting.

Mishkin and Savastano examine possible monetary policy strategies for Latin America that may help lock in the gains the region attained in the fight against inflation in the 1990s. Instead of focusing the debate about the conduct of monetary policy on whether the nominal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible, the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking.

Three basic frameworks deserve serious discussion as possible long-run strategies for monetary policy in Latin America. Mishkin and Savastano examine the advantages and disadvantages of a hard exchange-rate peg, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting, in light of monetary policy's recent track record in several Latin American countries, looking for clues about which of the strategies might be best suited to economies in the region.

The answer: It depends on the country's institutional environment.

Some countries appear not to have the institutions to constrain monetary policy if discretion is allowed. In those countries, there is a strong argument for hard pegs, including full dollarization, that allow little or no discretion to monetary authorities.

In countries such as Chile, which can constrain discretion, inflation targeting is likely to produce a monetary policy that keeps inflation low yet appropriately copes with domestic and foreign shocks.

Monetary targeting as a strategy for Latin America is not viable because of the likely instability of the relationship between inflation and monetary aggregates, of which there is ample international evidence.

No monetary strategy can solve the basic problems that have existed in Latin American economies for a long time. Mishkin and Savastano welcome the recent move in Latin American countries toward inflation targeting, but say no policy will succeed unless government polices also create the right institutional environment.

This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department - was prepared for the Inter-American Seminar on Economics, Buenos Aires, December 2-4, 1999. Frederic Mishkin may be contacted at fsm3@columbia.edu.

Abstract:
The paper examines possible monetary policy strategies for Latin America that may help lock-in the gains in the fight against inflation attained by the region during the 1990s. We start by calling for a refocus of the debate about the conduct of monetary policy away from thinking that it is about whether the nominal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible. Instead we argue that the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking. This focus suggest that there are three basic frameworks that deserve serious discussion as possible, long-run strategies for monetary policy in Latin America: a hard exchange-rate peg, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. We look at the advantages and disadvantages of each of these strategies and then examine the recent track record of monetary policy in some Latin American countries for clues as to which of the three strategies might be best suited to economies in the region.

Abstract:
This paper explains the puzzle of how a developing economy can shift from a path of reasonable growth before a financial crisis, as in Mexico in 1994, to a sharp decline in economic activity after a crisis occurs. It does so by outlining an asymmetric information framework for analyzing banking and financial crises in developing countries. The asymmetric inforamtion framework shows why the banking sector is so important to the economy, and provides a rationale for bank regulation and supervision. This asymmetric information framework is then used to understand why banking and financial crises occur and why they can have such a devastating effect on the economy countries. The paper concludes by discussing policy implications for developing countries. An important theme is that an appropriate institutional structure is critical to preventing banking and financial crises in developing countries and to reducing their undesirable effects if they should occur.

Abstract:
This paper examines fifteen historical episodes of stock market crashes and their aftermath in the United States over the last one hundred years. Our basic conclusion from studying these episodes is that financial instability is the key problem facing monetary policy makers and not stock market crashes, even if they reflect the possible bursting of a bubble. With a focus on financial stability rather than the stock market, the response of central banks to stock market fluctuations is more likely to be optimal and maintain support for the independence of the central bank.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper examines the nature of financial crises from a historical perspective using the new and burgeoning literature on asymmetric information and financial structure. After describing how this literature helps to understand the nature of financial crises, the paper focuses on a historical examination of a series of financial crises in the United States, beginning with the panic of 1857 and ending with the stock market crash of October 19,1987. The asymmetric information approach explains the patterns in the data and many features of these crises which are otherwise hard to explain. It also suggests why financial crises have had such important consequences for the aggregate economy over the past one hundred and fifty years.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
The yield curve—specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill—is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.

term structure, business cycle

Abstract:
This paper surveys the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy beyond the standard interest rate channel by focusing on how monetary policy affects the economy through other asset prices. It outlines how the monetary transmission mechanisms operating through stock prices, real estate prices, and exchange rates affect which affect investment and consumption decisions of both firms and households. Given the role that asset prices play on the transmission mechanism, central banks have been often tempted to use them as targets of monetary policy. This paper shows that despite the significance of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy, targeting asset prices by central banks is likely to lead to worse economic outcomes and might even erode the support for their independence.

Abstract:
Part I of the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
This short paper argues that the view that monetary policy is ineffective during financial crises is not only wrong, but may promote policy inaction in the face of a severe contractionary shock. To the contrary, monetary policy is more potent during financial crises because aggressive monetary policy easing can make adverse feedback loops less likely. The fact that monetary policy is more potent than during normal times provides a rationale for a risk-management approach to counter the contractionary effects from financial crises, in which monetary policy is far less inertial than would otherwise be typical -- not only by moving decisively through conventional or nonconventional means to reduce downside risks from the financial disruption, but also in being prepared to quickly take back some of that insurance in response to a recovery in financial markets or an upward shift in inflation risks.

Abstract:
This paper provides an asymmetric information framework for understanding the nature of financial crises. It provides the following precise definition of a financial crisis: A financial crisis is a disruption to financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to efficiently channel funds to those who have the most productive investment opportunities. As a result, a financial crisis can drive the economy away from an equilibrium with high output in which financial markets perform well to one in which output declines sharply. The asymmetric information framework explains the patterns in the data and many features of these crises which are otherwise hard to explain. It indicates that financial crises have effects over and above those resulting from bank panics and therefore provides a rationale for an expanded lender-of-last resort role for the central bank in which the central bank uses the discount window to provide liquidity to sectors outside of the banking system.

Abstract:
In recent years, a number of central banks have chosen to orient their monetary policy toward the achievement of numerical inflation targets. This study examines the experience of the first three countries to adopt an inflation-targeting strategy - New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It also considers the German experience with a monetary targeting scheme that incorporated many elements of inflation targeting even earlier. The authors find that the countries adopting a numerical inflation target have successfully maintained low inflation rates. Other benefits of inflation targeting include increased central bank accountability, heightened public understanding of monetary policy, and an improved climate for economic growth.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
This paper outlines what inflation targeting involves for emerging market/transition countries and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this monetary policy strategy. The discussion suggests that although inflation targeting is not a panacea and may not be appropriate for many emerging market countries, it can be a highly useful monetary policy strategy in a number of them.

Abstract:
Yes, as inferred from panel evidence for inflation-targeting countries and a control group of high-achieving industrial countries that do not target inflation. Our evidence suggests that inflation targeting helps countries achieve lower inflation in the long run, have smaller inflation response to oil-price and exchange-rate shocks, strengthen monetary policy independence, improve monetary policy efficiency, and obtain inflation outcomes closer to target levels. Some benefits of inflation targeting are larger when inflation targeters have achieved disinflation and are able to make their inflation targets stationary. Despite these favorable results for inflation targeting, our evidence generally does not suggest that countries that adopt inflation targeting have attained better monetary policy performance relative to our control group of highly successful non-inflation targeters. However, inflation targeting does seem to help all country groups to move toward performance of the control group. The performance attained by industrial-country inflation targeters generally dominates performance of emerging-economy inflation targeters and is similar to that of industrial non-inflation targeting countries.

Abstract:
In recent years a number of industrialized countries have adopted a strategy for monetary policy known as `inflation targeting.' We describe how this approach has been implemented in practice and argue that it is best understood as a broad framework for policy, which allows the central bank `constrained discretion,' rather than as an ironclad policy rule in the Friedman sense. We discuss the potential of the inflation-targeting approach for making monetary policy more coherent and transparent, and for increasing monetary policy discipline. Our final section addresses some additional practical issues raised by this approach.

Abstract:
The housing market is of central concern to monetary policy makers. To achieve the dual goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment, monetary policy makers must understand the role that housing plays in the monetary transmission mechanism if they are to set policy instruments appropriately. In this paper, I examine what we know about the role of housing in the monetary transmission mechanism and then explore the implications of this knowledge for the conduct of monetary policy. I begin with a theoretical and empirical review of the main housing-related channels of the transmission mechanism. These channels include the ways interest rates directly influence the user cost of housing capital, expectations of future house-price movements, and housing supply; and indirectly influence the real economy through standard wealth effects from house prices, balance sheet, credit-channel effects on consumer spending, and balance sheet, credit-channel effects on housing demand. I then consider the interaction of financial stability with the monetary transmission mechanism, and discuss the ways in which the housing sector might be a source of financial instability, and whether such instability could affect the ability of a central bank to stabilize the overall macroeconomy. I conclude with a discussion of two key policy issues. First, how can monetary policy makers deal with the uncertainty with regard to housing-related monetary transmission mechanisms? And second, how can monetary policy best respond to fluctuations in asset prices, especially house prices, and to possible asset-price bubbles?

Abstract:
This paper provides an overview of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, starting with traditional interest rate channels, going on to channels operating through other asset prices, and then on to the so-called credit channels. The paper then discusses the implications from this literature for how central banks might best conduct monetary policy.

Abstract:
One decade of inflation targeting in the world offers lessons on the design and implementation of inflation targeting, the conduct of monetary policy, and country performance under inflation targeting. This paper reviews briefly the main design features of 18 inflation targeting experiences, analyzes statistically if countries under inflation targeting are structurally different from non-inflation targeting industrial countries, and reviews existing evidence about the success of inflation targeting. The interaction of inflation targeting design features and the conduct of monetary policy during transition to low inflation are tackled next. The paper ends by focusing on unresolved issues on design and implementation of inflation targeting and their relation to the conduct of monetary policy open issues that have to be addressed in the next decade of inflation targeting.

Abstract:
This paper explores issues in emerging market countries to make inflation targeting work for them. It starts by outlining why emerging market economies are so different from advanced economies and then discuss why developing strong fiscal, financial and monetary institutions is so critical to the success of inflation targeting in emerging market countries. Then it discusses two emerging market countries which illustrate what it takes to make inflation targeting work well, Chile and Brazil. It then addresses a particularly complicated issue for central banks in emerging market countries who engage in inflation targeting: how they deal with exchange rate fluctuations. The next topic focuses on the IMF's role in promoting the success of inflation targeting in emerging market countries. The conclusion from this analysis is that inflation targeting is more complicated in emerging market countries and is thus not a panacea. However, inflation targeting done right can be a powerful tool to help promote macroeconomic stability in these countries.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat. It begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes, and then explores the weaknesses in this theory, especially when it is applied to emerging market economies. It then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates, and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits. The conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the development of good fiscal, financial, and monetary institutions in producing macroeconomic success in emerging market countries. This suggests that less attention should be focused on the general question whether a floating or a fixed exchange rate is preferable, and more on these deeper institutional arrangements. A focus on institutional reforms rather than on the exchange rate regime may encourage emerging market countries to be healthier and less prone to the crises that we have seen in recent years.

Abstract:
This paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat. It begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes, and then explores the weaknesses in this theory, especially when it is applied to emerging market economies. It then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates, and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits. The conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the development of good fiscal, financial, and monetary institutions in producing macroeconomic success in emerging market countries. This suggests that less attention should be focused on the general question whether a floating or a fixed exchange rate is preferable, and more on these deeper institutional arrangements. A focus on institutional reforms rather than on the exchange rate regime may encourage emerging market countries to be healthier and less prone to the crises that we have seen in recent years.

Abstract:
Part VII of the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
The basic puzzle about the so-called Fisher effect, in which movements in short-term interest rates primarily reflect fluctuations in expected inflation, is why a strong Fisher effect occurs only for certain periods but not for others. This paper resolves this puzzle by reexamining the relationship between inflation and interest rates with modern time-series techniques. Recognition that the level of inflation and interest rates may contain stochastic trends suggests that the apparent ability of short-term interest rates to forecast inflation in the postwar United States is spurious. Additional evidence does not support the presence of a short-run Fisher effect but does support the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in which inflation and interest rates trend together in the long run when they exhibit trends.

The evidence here can explain why the Fisher effect appears to be strong only for particular sample periods, but not for others. The conclusion that there is a long-run Fisher effect implies that when inflation and interest rates exhibit trends, these two series will trend together and thus there will be a strong correlation between inflation and interest rates. On the other hand, the nonexistence of a short-run Fisher effect implies that when either inflation and interest rates do not display trends, there is no long-run Fisher effect to produce a strong correlation between interest rates and inflation. The analysis in this paper resolves an important puzzle about when the Fisher effect appears in the data.

Abstract:
This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of subsequent U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated singly and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from 1 to 8 quarters ahead. Results show that stock prices are useful with 1-2 quarter horizons, as are some well-known macroeconomic indicators. Beyond 2 quarters, the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear choice, and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables.

Abstract:
This paper reviews Japanese monetary policy over the last two decades with an emphasis on the experience of deflation from the mid-1990s. The paper is quite critical of the conduct of monetary policy, particularly from 1998 to 2003. The Bank of Japan's rhetoric was not helpful in fighting deflation, and the interest rate hike in August 2000 amid deflation was a serious mistake. Deflation can be quite costly, and a key element in both preventing and escaping deflation is the management of expectations, using either price level or inflation targeting, because the zero lower bound on interest rates means that the overnight interest rate can no longer be used as the instrument of monetary policy. This paper proposes how to best manage expectations to exit deflation. Price-level targeting overcomes theoretical problems, such as need for a history dependent strategy, associated with inflation targeting. However, because actions speak louder than words, management of expectations also involves non-conventional monetary policies, a combination of which might have to be tried to help the Japanese economy escape its deflationary trap.

Abstract:
This paper uses an asymmetric information framework to understand the causes of the recent financial crisis in Korea. It shows that the Korean data is consistent with this explanation of the crisis. It then draws on this analysis to discuss several lessons that can help guide Korean policymakers in the future.

Abstract:
This paper outlines a set of financial policies that can help make financial crises less likely in emerging market countries. To justify these policies, the paper first explains what a financial crisis is, the factors that promote a financial crisis and the dynamics of a financial crisis. It then examines twelve basic areas of financial policies to prevent financial crises: 1) prudential supervision, 2) accounting and disclosure requirements, 3) legal and judicial systems, 4) market-based discipline, 5) entry of foreign banks, 6) capital controls, 7) Reduction of the role of state-owned financial institutions, 8) restrictions on foreign-denominated debt, 9) elimination of too-big-to-fail in the corporate sector, 10) sequencing financial liberalization, 11) monetary policy and price stability, 12) exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange reserves.

Abstract:
This lecture outlines an asymmetric information theory of financial instability which describes the fundamental forces which harm both the financial sector and economic activity. This asymmetric information framework is then used to demonstrate that although international capital movements and financial volatility can play a role in destabilizing the economy is frequently overstated.

Abstract:
This paper, which is the introductory chapter in my book, "Monetary Policy Strategy", forthcoming from MIT Press, outlines how thinking in academia and central banks about monetary policy strategy has evolved over time. It shows that six ideas that are now accepted by monetary authorities and governments in almost all countries of the world have led to improved monetary performance: 1) there is no long-run tradeoff between output (employment) and inflation; 2) expectations are critical to monetary policy outcomes; 3) inflation has high costs; 4) monetary policy is subject to the time-inconsistency problem; 5) central bank independence helps improve the efficacy of monetary policy; and 6) a strong nominal anchor is the key to producing good monetary policy outcomes.

Abstract:
This paper outlines the fundamental economic forces that have led to the decline in traditional banking, that is the process of making loans and funding them by issuing short-dated deposits. The declining competitiveness of traditional banking may threaten financial stability by increasing bank failures and by increasing the incentives for banks to take on more risk, either by making more risky loans or by engaging in 'nontraditional' financial activities that promise higher returns but greater risk. This paper argues that most nontraditional activities, such as banks acting as derivatives dealers, expose banks to risks and moral hazard problems that are similar to those associated with banks' traditional activities, and that these activities can be regulated as effectively as can traditional activities. One regulatory approach to maintain financial stability and strengthen the banking system is to adopt a system of structured bank capital requirements with early corrective action by regulators. An important element in this approach is that market- value accounting principles would be applied to banks and there would be increased public disclosure by banks of the risks associated with their trading activities. With this regulatory structure in place, banks could be permitted greater freedom to expand into nontraditional activities.

Abstract:
This paper provides an asymmetric information analysis of the recent East Asian crisis. It then outlines several lessons from this crisis. First, there is a strong rationale for an international lender of last resort. Second, without appropriate conditionality for this lending, the moral hazard created by operation of an international lender of last resort can promote financial instability. Third, although capital flows did contribute to the crisis, they are a symptom rather than an underlying cause of the crisis, suggesting exchange controls are unlikely to be a useful strategy to avoid future crises. Fourth, pegged exchange-rate regimes are a dangerous strategy for emerging market countries and make financial crises more likely.

Abstract:
This paper looks at how advances in information and telecommunications technologies have been changing the structure of the financial system by lowering transaction costs and reducing asymmetric information. Households and smaller businesses can now raise funds in securities markets as financial institutions have become better at unbundling risks while financial products can be distributed more efficiently through electronic networks. These changes have reduced the role of traditional financial intermediaries overall efficiency by lowering the costs of financial contracting. Despite these benefits technological progress presents policymakers with some important challenges. First markets for financial products become larger and more contestable, defining geographic and product markets narrowly becomes more problematic. Second, financial consolidation and the trend towards new activities of financial intermediaries require the exploration of new methods to preserve the safety and soundness of the financial system. A combined system of vigilant supervision and constructive ambiguity to deal with failures of larger institutions should be capable of mitigating the potential for increased risk-taking and help preserve the health of the financial system.

Abstract:
In recent years, a number of central banks have announced numerical inflation targets as the basis for their monetary strategies. After outlining the reasons why such strategies might be adopted in the pursuit of price stability, this study examines the adoption, operational design, and experience of inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policy in the first three countries to undertake such strategies New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It also analyzes the operation of the long-standing German monetary targeting regime, which incorporated many of the same features as later inflation-targeting regimes. The key challenge for all these monetary" frameworks has been the appropriate balancing of transparency and flexibility in policymaking. The study finds that all of the targeting countries examined have maintained low rates of inflation and increased the transparency of monetary policymaking without harming the real economy through policy rigidity in the face of economic developments. A convergence of design choices on the part of targeting countries with regard to operational questions emerges from this comparative study, suggesting some lines of best practice for inflation-targeting frameworks.

Abstract:
Using a simple case study approach, this paper compares the conduct and performance of monetary policy in six industrialized countries since the breakup of the Bretton Woods system. Our purpose is to develop fruitful hypotheses that might usefully be explored in subsequent, more formal research.

From a positive perspective, a frequently observed pattern in the case studies is that central banks adopt money growth targets when inflation threatens to get out of control. Central banks appear to use money growth targets both as guideposts for assessing the stance of policy and as a means of signalling their intentions to the public; however, no central bank adheres strictly to targets in the short run. More normatively, the case studies also suggest that money growth targets might be useful in providing a medium-term framework for monetary policy, if the targeting is done in a clear and straightforward manner and if targets can be adjusted for changes in the link between target and goal variables. It appears that rigid adherence to money growth targets in the short run is not necessary to gain some benefits of targeting, as long as there is some commitment by the central bank ultimately to reverse short-term deviations from target. Finally, the choice of operating procedure seems to have little bearing on the success of policy.

Abstract:
This paper outlines what problems asymmetric information creates for the financial system and shows and shows that the presence of asymmetric information explains why banks are so important. The paper then goes on to explain why prudential supervision of these institutions is needed, and what forms it takes. The paper ends by outlining the key issues in the design of prudential supervision and uses them to organize a general discussion of the papers in this conference volume, providing a brief overview of their content. The linkages between these papers are explored, which highlights some general conclusions.

Abstract:
Part III of the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
This paper asks the question: can central bank transparency go too far? Transparency is beneficial only when it serves to simplify communication with the public and helps generate support for central banks to conduct monetary policy optimally with an appropriate focus on long-run objectives. This paper argues that some suggestions for increased transparency, particularly a central bank announcement of its objective function or projections of the path of the policy interest rate, will complicate the communication process and weaken support for a central bank focus on long-run objectives. Transparency can indeed go too far. However, central banks can improve transparency in discussing that they do care about reducing output fluctuations. By describing procedures for how the path and horizon of inflation targets would be modified in the face of large shocks, by emphasizing that monetary policy will be just as vigilant in preventing inflation from falling too low as it is from preventing it from being too high, and by indicating that the central bank will pursue expansionary policies when output falls very far below potential, central banks can show that they do care about output fluctuations. These steps to improve transparency will increase support for the central bank's policies and independence, but avoid a focus on the short run that could interfere with the ability of the central bank to do its job effectively.

Abstract:
This review essay examines whether too-big-to-fail is as serious a problem as Gary Stern and Ron Feldman contend. This essay argues that Stern and Feldman overstate the importance of the too-big-to-fail problem and do not give enough credit to the FDICIA legislation of 1991 for improving bank regulation and supervision. However, this criticism of the Stern and Feldman book does not detract from many of its messages. Even if the too-big-to-fail problem is not as serious as they contend, the policies they outline can make it less likely that a banking crisis will occur even if driven by other factors.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper first outlines the key stylized facts about changes in inflation dynamics in recent years: 1) inflation persistence has declined, 2) the Phillips curve has flattened, and 3) inflation has become less responsive to other shocks. These changes in inflation dynamics are interpreted as resulting from an anchoring of inflation expectations as a result of better monetary policy. The paper then goes on to draw implications for monetary policy from this interpretation, as well as implications for inflation forecasts.

Abstract:
This paper examines empirically what the term structure of interest rates tells us about future inflation. The evidence indicates that the information in the term structure about the future path of inflation is quite different at the shortest end of the term structure (maturities six months or less) than it is for maturities of nine to twelve months. For maturities of six months or less, in all the sample periods examined - February 1964 to December 1986, 1964 to October 1979, November 1979 to October 1982, November 1982 to December 1986 - the term structure provides almost no information about the future path of inflation. On the other hand at this end of the term structure, the results do indicate that the term structure of nominal interest rates contain a great deal of information about the term structure of real interest rates. This finding is quite important because it suggests that researchers can examine observable data on the shortest end of the nominal term structure to provide them with information about the behavior of the real term structure. For maturities of nine and twelve months, the term structure does appear to contain information about the future path of inflation in the full sample period and in the sub-periods before October 1982. At these longer maturities, however, there does not appear to be much information in the nominal term structure about the term structure of real interest rates. The evidence in this paper suggests that some caution should be exercised in using the term structure of interest rates as a guide for assessing inflationary pressures in the economy, as is currently under consideration by the Federal Reserve. Although there is apparently significant information in the term structure about the future path of inflation for maturities greater than six months, there is no information about the future path of inflation that can be obtained from the shorter end of the term structure.

Abstract:
In recent years the possibility of an international financial crisis has increased because of greater liquidity of international financial markets, an increase in corporate indebtedness and the decline of the banking industry. Using an asymmetric information analysis, this paper outlines what signals a central bank might look for to determine if a financial crisis is occurring and then describes how central banks might operate and cooperate to prevent financial crises.

Abstract:
A paper summarizing the proceedings of "Beyond Pillar 3 in International Banking Regulation: Disclosure and Market Discipline of Financial Firms," an October 2003 conference cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia Business School.

Basel II, banking regulation, market discipline, disclosure

Abstract:
This paper extends previous work on the information in the term structure at longer maturities to other countries besides the United States, using a newly constructed data set for 1 to 5 year interest rates from Britain, West Germany and Switzerland. Even with wide differences in inflation processes across these countries, there is we find strong evidence that the term structure does have significant forecasting ability for future changes in inflation, particularly so at long maturities. On the other hand, the ability of the term structure to forecast future changes in 1-year interest rates is somewhat weaker; only at the very longest horizon (5 years) is there significant forecasing ability for interest rate changes.

Abstract:
This lecture examines whether financial globalization is beneficial to developing countries by first examining the evidence on financial development and economic growth and concludes that financial development is indeed a key element in promoting economic growth. It then asks why if financial development is so beneficial, it often doesn't occur. It then goes on to examine whether globalization, particularly of the financial kind, can help encourage financial and economic development and argues that it can. However, financial globalization does not always work to encourage economic development because it often leads to devastating financial crises. The issue is thus not whether financial globalization is inherently good or bad, but whether it can be done right.

Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both Europe and the United States. The results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread, but it unlikely to be the only determinant. In addition, there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation. The yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which, along with other information, can be used to help guide European monetary policy.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
The proposition that real rates are equal across countries is worth studying because it is central to our understanding of open economy macroeconomics and because it is also an important issue to policy makers. If it is true, then domestic monetary authorities have no control over their real rate relative to the world rate, limiting the impact of their stabilization policies. In addition, as Feldstein has pointed out, unless real rates can differ across countries, policies directed at increasing domestic savings cannot increase the rate of capital formation and hence productivity. The equality of real rates is also worth investigating, because it is intimately linked to and provides information on the basic parity conditions featured so prominently in open economy macro models.This paper conducts empirical tests of the equality of real rates and other parity conditions across countries using euro rate data over the1967-II to 1979-II sample period. The empirical evidence strongly rejects the hypothesis of the equality of real euro rates across countries. The joint hypotheses of uncovered interest parity and ex ante relative PPP, or the unbiasedness of forward rate forecasts and ex ante relative PPP, are also strongly rejected. Yet independent tests of uncovered interest parity, the unbiasedness of forward rate forecasts and ex ante relative PPP yield few rejections and high marginal significance levels. The evidence suggests that it is worth studying open economy models which allow: 1) domestic real rates to differ from world rates, 2) time varying risk premiums in the forward market or 3) deviations from ex ante relative purchasing power parity.The evidence also leaves open the possibility for policy makers to exertsome control over their domestic real rate relative to those in the rest of the world. However, the evidence does not rule out that there is a tendency for real rates across countries to equalize over time, and this is an important topic for further research.

Abstract:
This paper argues that although financial consolidation creates some dangers because it is leading to larger institutions who might expose the U.S. financial system to increased systemic risk, these dangers can be handled by vigilant supervision and a government safety net with an appropriate amount of constructive ambiguity. Financial consolidation also opens up opportunities to dramatically reduce the scope of deposit insurance and limit it to narrow bank accounts, thus substantially reducing the moral hazard created by the government safety net. Reducing the scope of deposit insurance, however, does not eliminate the need for a government safety net, and thus there is still a strong need for adequate prudential supervision of the financial system. Moving to a world in which we have larger, nationwide, diversified financial institutions and in which deposit insurance plays a very limited role, should improve the efficiency of the financial system. However, it is no panacea: the job of financial regulators and supervisors will continue to be highly challenging in the future.

Abstract:
This paper reviews the progress that the science of monetary policy has made over recent decades. This progress has significantly expanded the degree to which the practice of monetary policy reflects the application of a core set of scientific principles. However, there remains, and will likely always remain, elements of art in the conduct of monetary policy: in other words, substantial judgment will always be needed to achieve desirable outcomes on both the inflation and employment fronts. However, as case studies discussed here suggest, even through art will always be a key element in the conduct of monetary policy, the more it is informed by good science, the more successful monetary policy will be.

Abstract:
This paper examines the inflation targeting experience in three transition countries: the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. While the examined countries have missed inflation targets often by a large margin, they nevertheless progressed well with disinflation. A key lesson from the experience of the inflation targeting transition countries is that economic performance will improve and support for the central bank will be higher if the central banks emphasize avoiding undershoots of the inflation target as much as avoiding overshoots. Also economic performance will be enhanced if inflation targeting central banks in transition countries do not engage in active manipulation of the exchange rate. The relationship between the central bank and the government in these countries has been quite difficult, but this can be alleviated by having a direct government involvement in the setting of the inflation target and with a more active role of the central bank in communicating with both the government and the public. In addition having technocrats appointed as the head of the central bank rather than politicians may help in depersonalizing the conduct of monetary policy and increase support for the independence of the central bank. The paper also addresses the future perspective of monetary policy in the transition economies and concludes that even after the EU accession, inflation targeting can remain the main pillar of monetary strategy in the three examined accession countries during the time before they will join the EMU.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper provides a brief survey of the relationship between the yield curve and future changes in interest rates and inflation. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure indicates that when the yield curve is upward sloping, future short-term and long-term interest rates are expected to rise. Empirical evidence finds that as predicted by the expectations hypothesis, yield spreads are positively correlated with future changes in short-term interest rates, particularly at long horizons. However, yield spread are negatively correlated with next period's change in long-term interest rates, the opposite prediction of the expectations hypothesis. Empirical evidence also suggests that the yield curve has almost no ability to forecast future inflation changes for short horizons: however, at horizons of a year or greater, the yield curve contains a great deal of information about the future path of inflation.

Abstract:
This paper examines the international experiences with four basic types of monetary policy regimes: 1) exchange-rate targeting, 2) monetary targeting, 3) inflation targeting, and 4) monetary policy with an implicit but not an explicit nominal anchor. The basic theme that emerges from this analysis is that transparency and accountability are crucial to constraining discretionary monetary policy so that it produces desirable long-run outcomes. Because the devil is in the details in achieving transparency and accountability, what strategy will work best in a country depends on its political, cultural and economic institutions and its past history.

Abstract:
Part VIII of the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
This paper provides empirical evidence on the information in the term structure for longer maturities about both future inflation and the term structure of real interest rates. The evidence indicates that there is substantial iisformation in the longer maturity term structure about future inflution: the slope of the term structure does have a great deal of predictive power for future changes in inflation. On the other hand, at the longer maturities, the term structure of nominal interest rates contains very little information about the term structure of real interest rates. These results are strikingly different from those found for very short-term maturities, six months or less, in previous work. For maturities of six months or less, the term structure contains no information about the future path of inflation, but it does contain a great deal of information about the term structure of real interest rates. The evidence in this paper does indicate that, at longer maturities, the term structure of interest rates can be used to help assess future inflationary pressures: when the slope of the term structure steepens, it is an iudicstiou that the inflation rate will rise tn the future and when the slope falls, it is an indication that the inflation rate will fall. However, we must still remain cautious about using the evidence presented here to advocate that the Federal Reserve should target on the term structure in conducting monetary policy. A change in Federal Reserve operating procedures which focuses on the term itructure may well cause the relationship between the term structure and future inflation to shift, with the resutt that the term structure no longer remains an accurate guide to the path of future inflation. If this were to occur, Federal Reserve monetary policy could go far astray by focusiig on the term structure of interest rates.

Abstract:
Part II of the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
The paper argues that many of the exaggerated claims that globalization has been an important factor in lowering inflation in recent years just do not hold up. Globalization does, however, have the potential to be stabilizing for individual economies and has been a key factor in promoting economic growth. The paper then examines four questions about the impact of globalization on the monetary transmission mechanism and arrives at the following answers: (1) Has globalization led to a decline in the sensitivity of inflation to domestic output gaps and thus to domestic monetary policy? No. (2) Are foreign output gaps playing a more prominent role in the domestic inflation process, so that domestic monetary policy has more difficulty stabilizing inflation? No. (3) Can domestic monetary policy still control domestic interest rates and so stabilize both inflation and output? Yes. (4) Are there other ways, besides possible influences on inflation and interest rates, in which globalization may have affected the transmission mechanism of monetary policy? Yes.

Abstract:
This paper looks at why bank consolidation has been taking place in the United States and what the structure of the banking industry might look like in the future. It then discusses the implications of bank consolidation for the economy and the challenge it poses for central bankers.

Abstract:
Casual observation indicates that in recent years real interest rates in the United States appear to have risen sharply and have remained high relative to historical standards. Many observers have claimed that these high real rates have been transmitted abroad and have lead to high real rates in the rest of the industrialized countries. Concern over the level of real rates has been widespread in the analyses by economic policymakers both in Europe and in the United States. In this paper we present evidence on several questions regarding the movement in short term real interest rates in eight countries that have been raised by the recent policy debates in Europe and the United States: Have ex ante real rates in the United States and Europe been high during recent years? Has there been a link between U.S. real rates and those in other countries? Can this link be quantified?The basic finding in this paper is that real rates have climbed dramatically from the 1970s to the 1980s in both the European countries and the United States. Indeed, real interest rates in the United States are currently at high levels unprecedented in the post war period, which rival the levels that occurred during the Great Depression. Complaints that real interest rates in the United States are exceedingly high seem to be well justified. There is also strong evidence that there is a positive association between movements in U.S. real rates and those in Europe. However,European real rates typically do not move one-for-one with U.S. real rates,still leaving open the possibility that European monetary policy can influence domestic economic activity.

Abstract:
Part IV of the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper examines what strategies policymakers have used to both reduce and control inflation. It first outlines why a consensus has emerged that inflation needs to be controlled. Then it examines four basic strategies: exchange rate pegging, monetary targeting, inflation targeting, and the just do it' strategy of preemptive monetary policy with no explicit nominal anchor. The discussion highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each strategy and sheds light not only on how disinflation might best be achieved, but also on how hard won gains in lowering inflation can be locked in.

Abstract:
References to the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
This review article of Preston Miller's The Rational Expectations Revolution, Readings From the Front Line focuses on the impact of this research on macroeconomic policymaking. Although policymakers have generally not accepted the equilibrium business cycle models advocated in many of the articles in the Miller volume and even continue to use traditional Keynesian macroeconometric models for policy analysis, several of the lessons from the rational expectations revolution have become central in thinking about policymaking. Policymakers now recognize the importance of expectations and credibility to the outcomes of particular policies. This means that they are more cautious in their use of econometric models and are less likely to advocate discretionary activist stabilization policies. They are also more willing to design policymaking to avoid the time-inconsistency problem and take a long rather than a short-run view, thereby avoiding myopic policies that produce undesirable outcomes.

Abstract:
In this paper we rethink the NAIRU concept and examine whether it might have a useful role in monetary policy. We argue that it can, but success depends critically on defining NAIRU as a short-run concept and distinguishing it from a long-run concept like the natural rate of unemployment. We examine what effect uncertainty has on the use of NAIRU in policy. Uncertainty about the level of NAIRU does not imply that monetary policy should react less to the NAIRU gap. However, uncertainty about the effect of the NAIRU gap on inflation does require adjustments to the policy reaction function. Also, as in Brainard (1967), uncertainty about the effect of the monetary policy instrument on the NAIRU gap reduces the magnitude of the policy response. We estimate a simple NAIRU gap model for the United States to obtain quantitative measures of uncertainty and to assess how these measures affect our view of the policy reaction function.

Abstract:
Part VI of the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
In this paper we examine how target ranges work in the context of a Barro-Gordon (1983) type model, in which the time-inconsistency problem stems from political pressures from the government. We show that target ranges turn out to be an excellent way to cope with the time-inconsistency problem, and achieve many of the benefits that arise under practically less attractive solutions such as the conservative central banker and optimal inflation contracts. Our theoretical model also shows how an inflation targeting range should be set and how it should respond to changes in the nature of shocks to the economy.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper provides some refinements and updating of Fama's
(1984) evidence on the information in the term structure about
future spot interest rate movements. First, it uses econometric
techniques that properly correct standard errors for overlapping
data and for conditional heteroscedasticity. Second, it makes
use of a new data set that has some potential advantages over
Fama's and which has more recent data. Overall, the results are
in broad agreement with those of Fama. The term structure does
help predict spot interest rate movements several months into the
future. Indeed, updating Fama's results indicates that the
forecast power of forward rates is generally higher during the
October 192 to June 1986 period than it was during the sample
periods Fama examined.

Abstract:
How real interest rates behave over time is critical to our understanding of many macroeconomic issues, and much recent research has pursued this question. Very little of the research, however, has focused on real interest rates outside the United States. This paper is an empirical exploration of real interest rate movements in seven OECD countries from 1967-II to 1979-II. Further research is needed on real rates in other countries for several reasons. Not only are measures of foreign real rates of interest in their ownright, but extending an analysis of real rates to other countries also has the following additional benefits: it can generate more powerful statistical tests of propositions previously tested on U.S. data and yield information on whether results found for the U.S. hold up in other countries.This study pursues several questions that have arisen naturally from this earlier work. Is the hypothesis that the real rate is constant rejected when the analysis is extended to other countries? Does the real rate decline with increased inflation and money growth in other countries besides the United States? How reliable is the Fisher effect, in which nominal interestrates reflect changes in expected inflation? Are movements in nominal interest rates a reliable indicator of movements in real rates? What kind of variationsin real interest rates are there in different countries? Have real rates declined from the `60s to the `70s for other countries besides the U.S.?

Abstract:
Part V of the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
This paper attempts to provide a perspective on the causes of inflation by exploring why sustained inflations occur and the role of monetary policy in the inflation process. The conclusion reached in this paper is that in the last ten years there has been a convergence of views in the economics profession on the causes of inflation. As long as inflation is appropriately defined to be a sustained inflation, macro-economic analysis, whether of the monetarist or Keynesian persuasion, leads to agreement with Milton Friedman`s famous dictum, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." However, the conclusion that inflation is a monetary phenomenon does not settle the issue of what causes inflation because we also need to understand why inflationary monetary policy occurs. This paper also examines this issue and it finds that the underlying cause of inflationin the United States has been accommodating monetary policy geared to achieving a high employment target. The role of expectations has been important in the inflationary process so that to prevent the resurgence of inflation at a minimum cost in terms of unemployment and output loss, monetary policy must be both non-accommodating and credible.

Abstract:
Endnotes to the special Economic Policy Review volume on inflation targeting.

inflation targeting

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the Fisher effect in Australia. Initial testing indicates that both interest rates and inflation contain unit roots. Furthermore, there are indications that the variables have non-standard error processes. To overcome problems associated with this and derive the correct small sample distributions of test statistics we make use of Monte Carlo simulations. These tests indicate that while a long-run Fisher effect seems to exist there is no evidence of a short-run Fisher effect. This suggests that, while short-run changes in interest rates reflect changes in monetary policy, longer-run levels indicate inflationary expectations. Thus, the longer-run level of interest rates should not be used to characterize the stance of monetary policy.

Abstract:
We investigate the stochastic relation between income and consumption (specifically, consumption of food) within a panel of about 2,000 households. Our major findings are:

1. Consumption responds much more strongly to permanent than to transitory movements of income.

2. The response to transitory income is nonetheless clearly positive.

3. A simple test, independent of our model of consumption, rejects a central implication of the pure life cycle-permanent income hypothesis.

4. The observed covariation of income and consumption is compatible with pure life cycle-permanent income behavior on the part of 80 percent of families and simple proportionality of consumption and income among the remaining 20 percent.

As a general matter, our findings support the view that families respond differently to different sources of income variations. In particular, temporary income tax policies have smaller effects on consumptions than do other, more permanent changes in income of the same magnitude.

Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on what the term structure (for maturities of twelve months or less) tells us about future inflation in ten OECD countries. The empirical results on the information in the term structure contrast with those that find that the level of interest rates help forecast the future level of inflation. Instead, they indicate that for the majority of the countries in the sample, the term structure does not contain a great deal of information about the future path of inflation. The results for France, the United Kingdom and Germany tell a different story, however. In these countries, the term structure contains a highly significant amount of information about future changes in inflation.

The evidence in this paper suggests that central banks for most of the countries studied here should exercise some caution in using the term structure of interest rates as a guide for assessing inflationary pressures in the economy, as is currently under consideration in the U.S. central bank. Although there is significant information in the term structure about the future path of inflation for a few of the countries, this is not a result that is true in general.

The empirical evidence does reveal, however, that for every country studied except the United Kingdom, there is a great deal of information in the term structure of "nominal" interest rates about the term structure of "real" interest rates. This finding is an extremely useful one because it suggests that for most countries researchers can examine observable data on the nominal term structure to provide them with information about the behavior of the "real" term structure.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
The impact of a money stock increase on nominal short-term interest rates has been a hotly debated issue in the monetary economics literature. The most commonly held view -- also a feature of most structural macro models--has an increase in the money stock leading, at least in the short-run, to a decline in short interest rates. Monetarists dispute this view because they believe that it ignores the dynamic effects of a money stock increase. This paper is an application of efficient markets-rational expectations theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and short- term interest rates. This approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure that allows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests. In the interest of ascertaining the robustness of the results, many different empirical tests are carried out in this paper, and they uniformly do not support the proposition that increases in the money supply are correlated with declines in short rates.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper examines the role of output stabilization in the conduct of monetary policy. It argues that activist monetary policy in which the monetary authorities focus on output fluctuations in the setting of their policy instrument and in policy statements is likely to produce worse outcomes for output and inflation fluctuations, both because it will lead to suboptimal monetary policy, but also because it complicates monetary authorities' communication strategy and can weaken the credibility of the central bank. In contrast, conducting monetary policy with a flexible inflation target rule is likely to produce better outcomes. A flexible inflation target rule also allows the monetary authorities to effectively communicate to the public that they do care about output fluctuations, but makes it less likely that they will be encouraged to try to exploit the short-run tradeoff between output and inflation.

Abstract:
Recent theorizing with business cycle models which incorporate features of the Friedman-Phelps natural rate model along with rational expectations lead to the following policy conclusions. Anticipated changes in aggregate demand policy will have already been taken into account in economic agents behavior and will thus envoke no further output or employment response. Therefore, deterministic feedback policy rules will have no impact on output fluctuations in the economy. These policy implications of what Modigliani has dubbed the Macro Rational Expectations (MRE) hypothesis are of such importance that a wide range of empirical research is needed for its verification or refutation.

Recent empirical work has tested the "neutrality" implication of the MRE hypothesis that an anticipated monetary policy does not affect output or unemployment. Although this empirical work has frequently been favorable to the MRE hypothesis, it suffers from several deficiencies that create suspicion about the robustness of the results. This paper is an attempt to conduct and econometric investigation of the implications of the MRE hypothesis which does not suffer from these deficiencies. The results here strongly reject the neutrality implications of the MRE hypothesis: unanticipated movements in monetary policy are not found to have a larger impact on output and unemployment than anticipated movements. This evidence casts doubt on previous evidence that is cited as supporting the view that only unanticipated monetary policy is relevant to the business cycle.

Abstract:
Understanding the behavior of real interest rates is a central issue in monetary/macro economics. Recently researchers have begun to use futures market data to examine real interest rate behavior. Futures market data can be used to directly construct own-commodity real interest rates ? i.e., the ex-ante real return on a bond in terms of specific commodities -- and then the own-commodity real rates can be used to make inferences about the real interest rate for the aggregate economy, This paper examines whether futures market data can be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates. The conclusion is a negative one: Futures market data do not appear to be particularly informative about real interest rates. In coming to this conclusion, the paper examines the data in several ways. First. the ex-ante relative price movement embedded in the own-commodity real rates (the noise) is calculated to be on the order of over one hundred times more variable than the aggregate real interest rate (the signal), Own-commodity real rates are thus unlikely to contain much information about the aggregate real interest rate. Second. several widely accepted facts about the behavior of aggregate real interest rates in the 1960s are not at all evident in the own-commodity real rate data. Thus, analysis of own- commodity real rates provides a misleading impression of aggregate real rate movements for a period which displays the most striking movements of real interest rates in the postwar period. Finally, an econometric analysis of own-commodity real rate behavior fails to find evidence of a shift in the behavior of real interest rates when the monetary policy regime changes in October 1579, a finding that is at odds with previous strong findings in the literature.

Abstract:
We examine the potential policy role of monetary aggregates by attempting to use them as effectively as possible in the analysis of empirical relationships. We consider three possible roles: as information variables, as indicators of policy actions and as instruments in a policy rule. These require successively stronger and more stable relationships between the aggregates and the final policy targets. Our results show that in the United States since 1979, the monetary aggregates fall considerably short of those requirements, and results with German M3 are hardly more favorable. We also investigate whether empirical relationships are not reflective of causal relationships because of the use of these variables in counter cyclical policy. The results are reasonably consistent with that notion in the case of interest rates, but not in the case of the aggregates.

Abstract:
Several recent studies find that ex ante real returns for short-term U.S. Treasury securities are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates. This paper examines whether these findings extend to the short-term holding return on publicly and privately issued securities of longer maturity, are robust with respect to the choice of price index, and are stable over time. Our results show that before 1979 a negative relationship of ex ante real returns with inflation and nominal interest rates does appear for the longer maturity assets. In fact, the relationship grows stronger with increases in maturity length. This suggests that although short-term U.S. Treasury bills were, of all the assets we study, the best hedge against expected inflation, none of the assets were a perfect hedge. We find a statistically significant change in the stochastic process of bond returns in 1979, with nominal interest rates and ex ante real holding returns being positively correlated in this latter period. This is not true for stocks, however. While the above results are robust to the choice of price index, we show that estimating the level of ex ante real returns depends crucially on the price index chosen.

Abstract:
This paper conducts tests of the rationality of both inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts in the bond market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer information on market expectations.

Abstract:
This paper discusses what recent economic research tells us about exchange rate pass-through and what this suggests for the control of monetary policy. It first focuses on exchange rate pass-through from a macroeconomic perspective and then examines the microeconomic evidence. In light of this evidence, it then discusses the implications of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy.

Abstract:
This paper is an application of efficient markets theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and long-term interest rates. This approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure on this relationship that allows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests. In the interest of ascertaining the robustness of the results, many different empirical tests are carried out in this paper, and they uniformly do not support the proposition that increases in the money supply are correlated with declines in long rates.

Abstract:
This paper discusses recent economic research that demonstrates that the objectives of price stability and stabilizing economic activity are often likely to be mutually reinforcing. Thus, the answer to the title of this paper - Does stabilizing inflation contribute to stabilizing economic activity? - is, for the most part, yes.

Abstract:
A heated debate has arisen over what Modigliani has dubbed the Macro Rational Expections (MRE) hypothesis. This hypothesis embodies two component hypotheses: 1) rational expectations and 2) short-run neutrality -- i.e., that anticipated changes in aggregate demand will have already been taken into account in economic agents` behavior and will thus evoke no output or employment response. Together these component hypotheses imply that deterministic feedback policy rules will have no effect on business cycle fluctuations. The irrelevance of these types of policy rules is inconsistent with much previous macro theorizing as well as with the views of policymakers. It is thus an extremely controversial proposition which requires a wide range of empirical research. This paper is a sequel to a previous paper by the author. That paper developed a methodology for testing the MRE hypothesis and found that anticipated money growth does matter to the business cycle. This paper extends the analyses to cases where the rate of nominal GNP growth or the inflation rate, rather than money growth, is the aggregate demand variable. The empirical results are also negative on the MRE hypothesis and its corresponding policy ineffectiveness proposition.

Abstract:
This piper provides an overview of U.S. macroeconomic policy and performance in the 1980s by first outlining the behavior of key economic variables and then discussing the policies that have affected these variables. After gaining some insight into the interaction between these policies and macroeconomic performance, it then goes on to examine where macro policy and the U.S. economy may be heading in the next several years.