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Abstract:
In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries and, in more recent years, the large- and middle-income economies, as well as coastal and low-income countries. The analysis confirms a trend break in the mid-1990s, identifying a growth acceleration that is due not only to favorable terms of trade and greater aid, but also to better policy. Indeed, the growth diagnostics show that more and more African countries have been able to avoid mistakes with better macropolicy, better governance, and fewer conflicts; as a result, the likelihood of growth decelerations has declined significantly. Nonetheless, the sustainability of that growth is fragile, because economic fundamentals, such as savings, investment, productivity, and export diversification, remain stagnant. The good news inthe story is that African economies appear to have learned how to avoid the mistakes that led to the frequent growth collapses between 1975 and 1995. The bad news is that much less is known about the recipes for long-term success in development, such as developing the right institutions and the policies to raise savings and diversify exports, than about how to avoid economic bad times.

Economic Conditions and Volatility, Governance Indicators, Achieving Shared Growth, Economic Theory & Research, Emerging Markets

Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa has grown at record figures since the mid-1990s, generating optimism that the continent has finally turned the corner on the path to sustained growth. But growth has been largely driven by high international demand for commodities in general, and hydrocarbons and other minerals in particular, and it is unclear how the region will cope if and when the global demand for raw materials slows down. To answer this question we first investigate whether growth has accelerated since 1995, and second whether the economic fundamentals that drive long run growth have improved during the acceleration. We use the methodology developed by Arbache and Page (2007a) and find evidence that Africa has indeed been experiencing record growth acceleration since 1995. But we find that in general growth accelerations have not been accompanied by improved economic fundamentals such as investment rates, current accounts, fiscal accounts, and inflation, thus suggesting that so far there is little indication that the region is experiencing a robust growth period.

growth robustness, economic fundamentals, Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract:
Devarajan, Go, Page, Robinson, and Thierfelder argued that if aid is about the future and recipients are able to plan consumption and investment decisions optimally over time, then the potential problem of an aid-induced appreciation of the real exchange rate (Dutch disease) does not occur. In their paper, "Aid, Growth and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," this key result is derived without requiring extreme assumptions or additional productivity story. The economic framework is a standard neoclassical growth model, based on the familiar Salter-Swan characterization of an open economy, with full dynamic savings and investment decisions. It does require that the model is fully dynamic in both savings and investment decisions. An important assumption is that aid should be predictable for intertemporal smoothing to take place. If aid volatility forces recipients to be constrained and myopic, Dutch disease problems become an issue.

Economic Theory & Research, Debt Markets, Currencies and Exchange Rates, Emerging Markets

Abstract:
This paper uses a new, nationally-representative household survey from Ghana to analyze within a rigorous econometric framework how the receipt of internal remittances (from within Ghana) and international remittances (from African or other countries) affects the marginal spending behavior of households on a broad range of consumption and investment goods, including food, education and housing. Contrary to other studies, which find that remittances are spent disproportionately on consumption (food and consumer goods/durables) or investment goods (education and housing), the findings show that households receiving remittances in Ghana do not spend more at the margin on food, education and housing than households with similar income levels and characteristics that do not receive remittances. When the analysis controls for endogeneity and selection bias, the findings show that any differences in the marginal spending behavior between remittance-receiving and non-receiving households are explained completely by the observed and unobserved characteristics of households. Households in Ghana treat remittances just like any other source of income, and there are no changes in marginal spending patterns for households with the receipt of remittance income.

Population Policies, Access to Finance, Debt Markets, Remittances

Abstract:
Using the most recent purchasing power parity data for 44 sub-Saharan African countries, this paper examines the characteristics of long run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors investigate the following issues: cross-country income structure, income convergence, the country level distribution of income, growth and income persistence, and formation of convergence clubs.

Economic Conditions and Volatility, Economic Theory & Research, Achieving Shared Growth, Economic Growth, Inequality

Abstract:
In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries and, in more recent years, the large- and middle-income economies, as well as coastal and low-income countries. The analysis confirms a trend break in the mid-1990s, identifying a growth acceleration that is due not only to favorable terms of trade and greater aid, but also to better policy. Indeed, the growth diagnostics show that more and more African countries have been able to avoid mistakes with better macropolicy, better governance, and fewer conflicts; as a result, the likelihood of growth decelerations has declined significantly. Nonetheless, the sustainability of that growth is fragile, because economic fundamentals, such as savings, investment, productivity, and export diversification, remain stagnant. The good news in the story is that African economies appear to have learned how to avoid the mistakes that led to the frequent growth collapses between 1975 and 1995. The bad news is that much less is known about the recipes for long-term success in development, such as developing the right institutions and the policies to raise savings and diversify exports, than about how to avoid economic bad times.

Growth diagnostics, growth robustness, economic policy, Africa

Abstract:
Low and highly volatile growth define Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence that growth volatility is associated to long term economic performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests that volatility is not important for economic and social progress. In this paper we use a variant of the method developed by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to identify both growth acceleration and deceleration episodes in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors find that Africa has had numerous growth acceleration episodes in the last 30 years, but also nearly a comparable number of growth collapses, offsetting most of the benefits of growth. Had Africa avoided its growth collapses, it would have grown 1.7 percent a year instead of 0.7 percent, and its GDP per capita would have been more than 30 percent higher in 2005. The authors also find that growth accelerations and decelerations have an asymmetric impact on human development outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that it is easier to identify the likely institutional and policy origins of growth decelerations than of growth accelerations.

Governance Indicators, Achieving Shared Growth, Economic Conditions and Volatility, Economic Growth, Nutrition

Abstract:
This paper uses a new, 2005/06 nationally-representative household survey to analyze the impact of internal remittances (from Ghana) and international remittances (from African and other countries) on poverty and inequality in Ghana. To control for selection and endogeneity, it uses a two-stage multinomial logit model with instrumental variables focusing on variations in migration networks and remittances among various ethno-religious groups in Ghana. The paper finds that both internal and international remittances reduce the level, depth, and severity of poverty in Ghana. However, the size of the poverty reduction depends on the type of remittances received. In general, poverty in Ghana is reduced more by international than internal remittances. For households receiving international remittances, the level of poverty falls by 88.1 percent with the inclusion of remittances; for households receiving internal remittances, poverty falls by 69.4 percent with the inclusion of remittances. The paper also finds that both types of remittances increase income inequality in Ghana. For households with internal remittances, the inclusion of remittances causes the Gini coefficient to rise by 4 percent, and for households with international remittances, the inclusion of remittances causes the Gini to increase by 17.4 percent.

Population Policies, Access to Finance, Remittances, Debt Markets, Rural Poverty Reduction

Abstract:
Using the most recent purchasing power parity data for 44 sub-Saharan African countries, this paper examines the characteristics of long run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. We investigate the following issues: cross-country income structure, income convergence, the country level distribution of income, growth and income persistence, and formation of convergence clubs.

GDP per capita, Growth, Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract:
This paper examines the country-level dynamics of long-run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors examine how growth has affected mobility and the distribution of income among countries. They analyze changes in cross-country income structure and convergence, and look for evidence of the formation of country groups or clubs. Using a novel method of breaking up the growth histories of African economies into medium-term spells of growth accelerations and declines, the authors investigate whether a group of African leopards - the regional equivalent of Asia's tigers - is beginning to emerge.

Economic Conditions and Volatility, Achieving Shared Growth, Economic Theory & Research, Economic Growth, Inequality

Abstract:
This paper examines the country-level dynamics of long-run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. We are primarily interested in examining how growth has affected mobility and the distribution of income among countries. We analyze changes in the cross-country income structure and convergence. We also look for evidence of the formation of country groups or "clubs". Finally, we use a novel method of breaking up the growth histories of African economies into medium term spells of growth accelerations and declines to see if a group of African "leopards" - the regional equivalent of Asia's "tigers" - is beginning to emerge.

GDP per capita, Growth, Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract:
A considerable amount of research has been conducted on the topic of migration and remittances over the last few years. Early studies on immigration policy assumed that migrants leave their countries, settle in a new country, start integrating in their new society, and abandon their ties with their country of origin. Today, however, globalization makes it possible for immigrants to remain connected with their native countries while residing abroad. To address the latest developments on migration and remittances, the authors provide a global survey of the analytical and empirical literature on these issues. This paper reviews evidence on how migrants contribute to the economic development of their countries of origin. In addition to describing the state of knowledge regarding flows of people and migrant remittances worldwide, it focuses on the current literature dealing with the development impact of transfers of money, knowledge, and skills by migrants back to their home countries. The paper also examines the complex question of the impact of highly skilled migration on labor sending countries. There is a continuing debate over what role migration should play in the mix of policies available in order to promote economic development. Although mechanisms for liberalizing goods, services and capital markets are in place, the international mobility of labor still faces stringent restrictions. The paper, therefore, reviews proposed mechanisms to strengthen the governance of international migration, including policy options to make migration management bilateral, regional, or global. It also considers the relationship between international trade and development policies and migration policies, including how to tap to the diaspora.

Abstract:
What is pro-poor growth, and is it a useful concept for African development policy? This paper examines the debate between proponents of growth and poverty reduction, highlighting the diversity of regional and country experiences in promoting development with these two objectives. The author concludes that the most effective development policies will be those that advocate a shared growth strategy, using public policy to create growth, while also promoting the engagement of the poor to ensure that they are active participants in, and beneficiaries of growth. Natural resource revenue management, agricultural exports, and regional integration are highlighted as three of the most promising areas for promoting such growth strategies.

Abstract:
Has Africa finally reached the path to sustained growth? We find that much of the improvement in economic performance in Africa after 1995 is attributable to a substantial reduction in the frequency and severity of growth declines in all economies and an increase in growth accelerations in mineral-rich economies. We find, however, that growth accelerations have not been generally accompanied by improvements in variables often correlated with long run growth, such as investment. We also fail to find evidence that substantial policy and governance improvements were associated with the post-1995 accelerations. We conclude that Africa's growth recovery remains fragile.