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Abstract:
While a mutual fund's investment style influences the returns it generates, little is known about how a manager's execution of the style decision might affect performance. Using multivariate techniques for measuring the consistency of a portfolio's investment mandate, we demonstrate that more style-consistent funds tend to produce higher total and relative returns than less consistent funds, after controlling for past performance and portfolio turnover. These findings are robust across fund investment style classifications, the return measurement period, and the model used to calculate expected returns. We document a positive relationship between measures of fund style consistency and the persistence of its future performance, net of momentum and past performance effects. We conclude that the decision to maintain a consistent investment style is an important aspect of the portfolio management process.

mutual funds, investment style, performance measurement, performance persistence

Abstract:
While a mutual fund's investment style influences the returns it generates, little is known about how a manager's execution of the style decision affects portfolio performance. Using both returns- and holdings-based techniques to measure the consistency with which managers approach their investment mandates, we demonstrate that, on average, more style-consistent funds significantly outperform less style-consistent funds on a risk-adjusted basis. This result differs from portfolio turnover and expense ratio effects and is robust with respect to the period used to measure future returns. We also show that fund style consistency and the persistence of risk-adjusted performance over time are distinct influences and demonstrate the potential profitability of trading strategies based on their combined impact. We conclude that deciding to maintain a consistent investment style is an important aspect of the portfolio management process.

Style Investing, Style Consistency, Performance Persistence

Abstract:
The debate over the value of active portfolio management has often centered on whether the average active manager is capable of producing returns that exceed expectations. We argue that a more useful way to frame this issue is to focus on identifying those managers who are the most likely to generate superior risk-adjusted returns (i.e., alpha) in the future. Using a style-classified sample of mutual funds, we document several tractable relationships between observable fund characteristics and its future alpha, most notably the tendency for performance to persist over time. While median managers produce positive risk-adjusted performance approximately 45% of the time, we document a selection process that improves an investor's probability of identifying a superior active manager to almost 60%. We conclude that there is a place in the investor's portfolio for the properly chosen active manager.

Alpha, alpha persistence, manager selection, active versus passive, risk-adjusted returns, manager skill

Abstract:
This paper develops and tests the notion that postannouncement prices from stock and option markets can be used to infer both the probability of success and timing of an attempted takeover. Using a sample of 65 cash tender offers from January 1980 to July 1989, we demonstrate that the pattern of implied stock volatilities generated from target firm options expiring around the takeover resolution date is strongly consistent with the hypothesis that prices anticipate the eventual outcome. We conclude that traders in the market for takeover candidates behave in a rational manner, although with less-than-perfect foresight.

Abstract:
This paper develops and tests the notion that it is possible to use the post-announcement prices from the stock and option markets to infer both the probability of success and timing of an attempted takeover. Using a sample of 65 cash tender offers from the period January 1980 to July 1989, we demonstrate that the sequence of implied stock volatilities generated from the options of the target firm expiring both before and after the resolution date of the proposed deal exhibit a pattern strongly consistent with the hypothesis that prices are set in anticipation of the eventual outcome. We conclude that traders in the market for takeover candidates behave in a rational manner, although with less- than-perfect foresight.

Abstract:
We test the hypothesis that when their compensation is linked to relative performance, managers of investment portfolios likely to end up as "losers" will manipulate fund risk differently than those managing portfolios likely to be "winners." An empirical investigation of the performance of 334 growth-oriented mutual funds during 1976 to 1991 demonstrates that mid-year losers tend to increase fund volatility in the latter part of an annual assessment period to a greater extent than mid-year winners. Further, we show that this effect became stronger as industry growth and investor awareness of fund performance increased over time.