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Abstract:
This paper reviews China's multilateral and preferential trade policies. It reviews the demanding terms of China's WTO accession, its current tariff and trade regime and its participation in the Doha Round negotiations and the institution's regular activities. The analysis concludes that China's trade policies are broadly supportive of a rules based multilateral trading order and its behavior at the WTO is that of a status quo power rather than one seeking major systemic changes. The discussion then turns to China's regional trade initiatives. China has been extremely active in negotiating these and their implications remain uncertain. Concerns about an East Asian fortress, though, appear misplaced. Directly, and through their impact in inducing others to respond, these FTAs could provide a powerful impetus to the process of competitive global liberalization. Countries that do implement agreements with China will find it relatively easy to open their markets to other developing countries. There is also a risk however that the proliferation of FTAs will lead to web of overlapping agreements that could make the trading system unnecessarily complex.

Abstract:
This paper reviews China's multilateral and preferential trade policies. It reviews the demanding terms of China's WTO accession, its current tariff and trade regime and its participation in the Doha Round negotiations and the institution's regular activities. The analysis concludes that China's trade policies are broadly supportive of a rules based multilateral trading order and its behavior at the WTO is that of a status quo power rather than one seeking major systemic changes. The discussion then turns to China's regional trade initiatives. China has been extremely active in negotiating these and their implications remain uncertain. Concerns about an East Asian fortress, though, appear misplaced. Directly, and through their impact in inducing others to respond, these FTAs could provide a powerful impetus to the process of competitive global liberalization. Countries that do implement agreements with China will find it relatively easy to open their markets to other developing countries. There is also a risk however that the proliferation of FTAs will lead to web of overlapping agreements that could make the trading system unnecessarily complex.

Economics, International Economics

Abstract:
There is a broad consensus among US opinion leaders that our economic problem is largely one of failures of international competition -- that trade deficits have eroded our manufacturing base, that inability to sell on world markets has been a major drag on economic growth, and that imports from low-wage countries have caused a widening of income inequality. This paper summarizes recent evidence on these issues, and shows that while there may be a grain of truth to each complaint, in each case the effect is quantitatively minor. The arithmetic of 'competitiveness' just doesn't work.

Abstract:
Used properly, the term 'new e-conomy' is warranted. Since 1995, there has been a wave of innovation associated with both the production and use of information technology that has been translated into improved US economic performance. In particular, there has been a substantial acceleration in trend total factor productivity growth. Most of this acceleration actually took place outside of the computer sector. Almost none of the acceleration was cyclical. There is now clear supportive evidence of an acceleration of productivity in service industries that are major purchasers of information technology such as finance and wholesale and retail trade. These gains reflect not only increased investment in information technology but also complementary innovations in business organization and policy. To be sure, as evidenced by recent financial market volatility, there have been speculative excesses, but these should not obscure the fundamental gains that have been made.

Abstract:
It is commonly argued that Japanese trade protection has enabled the nurturing and development internationally competitive firms. The results in our paper suggest that when it comes to TFP growth, this view of Japan is seriously erroneous. We find that lower tariffs and higher import volumes would have been particularly beneficial for Japan during the period 1964 to 1973. Our results also lead us to question whether Japanese exports were a particularly important source of productivity growth. Our findings on Japan suggest that the salutary impact of imports stems more from their contribution to competition than to intermediate inputs. Furthermore our results indicate a reason for why imports are important. Greater imports of competing products spur innovation. Our results suggest that competitive pressures and potentially learning from foreign rivals are important conduits for growth. These channels are even more important as industries converge with the market leader. This suggests that further liberalization by Japan and other East Asian countries may result in future dynamic gains. Our results thus call the views of both the World Bank and the revisionists into question and provide support for those who advocate more liberal trade policies.

Abstract:
This paper evaluates the US initiative to establish a Free Trade Agreement with countries in the Middle East by signing bilateral agreements with the countries individually and then combining them into a single arrangement. These agreements present new opportunities for Arab countries, but to take full advantage, they will have to complement the agreements with additional policy measures, both individually, and together. The promise comes from the ability to use the agreements as a catalyst for improving regulatory rules and systems at home and facilitating integration with the rest of the region and the world. But the agreements also present problems for Arab countries, first in relating these US agreements to agreements with other trading partners - most importantly the EU; second in creating political difficulties associated with closer relations with the USA given problems in the region, and third, in undertaking the necessary economic and political policies that are necessary to realize the benefits.

Economics, International Economics

Abstract:
The Doha Round is intended to advance the interests of developing countries but it has run into problems because additional liberalization in sectors of interest to some developing countries could erode the preferences of others. None of the current proposals to deal with the issue, either through delaying liberalization or providing compensation have found widespread support. In this paper we explore a proposal to backload the phase-in of MFN tariff reductions in sensitive sectors and use the revenues generated to provide compensation for preference erosion. We argue that the approach would be both equitable and effective.

Economics, International Economics

Abstract:
International trade has had some impact on relative industry wages, but cannot explain widening wage differentials by education, skill, or occupation. Likewise, the slow growth of average wages during the 1980s cannot be explained by international trade.

wages, trade, skill

Abstract:
South African trade policy has exerted a major influence on the composition and aggregate growth of trade. In the Apartheid period, trade protection seriously impeded both exports and imports, and the economy depended on favorable global commodity price trends to avoid running into an external constraint. South Africa developed a comparative advantage in capital-intensive primary and manufactured commodities partly because of its natural resource endowments but also because the pattern of protection was particularly detrimental to exports of non-commodity manufactured goods. High and opaque tariffs seriously impeded export growth. When global commodity markets were weak, in combination with declining gold exports, this seriously constrained aggregate growth and dulled the response of exports to the weaker rand in the late 1980s. On the other hand, surcharges were effective in reducing imports. By contrast, trade liberalization in the 1990s not only increased imports but, by reducing both input costs and the relative profitability of domestic sales, also boosted exports. The growth in non-commodity manufactured sectoral exports as a result of liberalization was actually faster than sectoral imports. This evidence suggests that additional trade liberalization could well be part of the strategy to enhance export diversification. It points to the importance of policies that afford South African firms with access to inputs at world prices as well as a competitive real exchange rate.

Abstract:
This paper summarizes and extends previous research on the relationship between low-wage international competition and wage performance in the Developed Countries in the 1980s. The first section argues that poor average US wage performance reflects slow domestic productivity growth rather than international competition. The second section presents evidence which rejects the view that Stolper-Samuelson effects are important in the US, Germany and Japan. In all three countries, neither the wholesale nor the import prices of unskilled-labor intensive products have experienced relative declines. At the same time, despite the rise in relative skilled worker wages, in the US, over the 1980s, the ratio of non-production to production workers grew faster than in the 1960s and 1970s; suggesting that technological change in US manufacturing was particularly biased in favor of white collar workers. The third section explores the employment and wage behavior in US multinational parents and their foreign-owned manufacturing affiliates between 1977 and 1989. Overall the data point to the dominant impact of a commonly shared technological change rather than trade and increased international sourcing. Employment fell, both in US parents and in affiliates in developed countries and grew only modestly" in developing countries. In foreign affiliates in both developed and developing countries, the relative compensation of non-production workers increased and the ratio of production to non-production workers fell. While US parent sourcing from overseas affiliates grew rapidly, the increase accounted for only a small share of sales.

Abstract:
This study uses both a net factor content analysis and a small simulation model to explore the impact on the U.S. labor market of a fivefold increase in imports of manufactured goods from developing countries. The simulation, which is parameterized by the US economy in 1990, involves a balanced trade expansion which displaces almost half of US manufacturing workers who are reemployed in the remaining manufacturing and non-trade sectors. The results show that relative wages of workers with a high school education or less would be depressed, while those with some college education would rise. However, despite the magnitude of the shock, the effects are surprisingly small. Once account is taken of productivity increases, labor force growth and export sector wage premiums, given unitary elasticities of demand and of substitution between workers with different levels of education, relative wages of workers with some college education rise by 3.5 percent, while the real wages of workers with a high school education or less decline by 1.3 percent. The impact of a variety of parameter assumptions is also explored.

Abstract:
This paper compares the responses of intra- and extra-firm trade to exchange rate changes. It does so both to inform the debate on whether these responses are qualitatively different and to improve understanding of the microfoundations of features of trade behavior such as long adjustment lags, the large impact of distance, and the presence of significant home bias. We argue that the informational problems posed by search (acts identifying potential exchange partners) and deliberation (acts assessing their reliability and trustworthiness) play a key role in explaining these features and suggest that multinationals should have advantages in overcoming these problems. Indeed we find that the responses of multinationals to exchange rate changes are both larger and more rapid.

Abstract:
To be effective an international organisation must (a) be given an appropriate mission; (b) be given the means to accomplish its mission; and (c) be viewed as legitimate when carrying out the mission. This paper explores the problems in achieving these prerequisites for success first in a general discussion and then in an application to the WTO. Ensuring these conditions are met is not easy because there is an inherent tendency for many international institutions to experience mission creep, particularly when accountability for burden sharing is weak. This leads to the central dilemma facing many international organisations. If missions are expanded, and organisations given insufficient means, they are likely to fail (or fall short of optimal behaviour) and be criticised for ineffectiveness. However, the more extensive the means they are given, the more likely that their legitimacy will be questioned. The paper argues that the best way for the WTO to deal with these tensions would be to adopt an approach built on a more variable geometry in which countries would not all be required to participate in a single undertaking.

Abstract:
South African trade policy has exerted a major influence on the composition and aggregate growth of trade. In the Apartheid period, South Africa developed a comparative advantage in capital-intensive primary and manufactured commodities partly because of its natural resource endowments, but also because the pattern of protection was particularly detrimental to exports of non-commodity manufactured goods. By contrast, trade liberalization from 1990 not only increased imports, but by reducing both input costs and the relative profitability of domestic sales also boosted exports. This evidence suggests that additional trade liberalization and policies that afford South African firms access to inputs at world prices could well be part of the strategy to enhance export diversification.

Abstract:
The diverse nature of World Trade Organization (WTO) membership makes it highly unlikely that members will all be willing and able to sign on to the full range of agreements that many members might find desirable. The paper proposes an approach in which the WTO would supplement its core agreements with additional 'clubs' to which only some members would subscribe. The approach is a compromise in which diversity can co-exist with a more extensive set of commitments for willing members. The paper provides suggestions for how the clubs would be selected and how they would operate. Clubs would be chosen where they could help promote the WTO's central missions: lowering barriers to trade, reducing the discriminatory effects of domestic policies, and enhancing economic development through trade. All WTO members would participate in negotiating club rules, but members would be free not to join. Clubs would use the Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU) to deal with disputes, but suspension of concessions in the event of violations would be confined to the provisions of the same club in which the violation occurred.