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Robert E. Lucas Jr.'s
Scholarly Papers
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Total Downloads
390 |
Total
Citations
1,163 |
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Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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19 Jun 04
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19 Jun 04
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208 (41,038)
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Abstract:
This paper considers the prospects for constructing a neoclassical theory of growth and international trade that is consistent with some of the main features of economic development. Three models are considered and compared to evidence: a model emphasizing physical capital accumulation and technological change, a model emphasizing human capital accumulation through schooling, and a model emphasizing specialized human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing.
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Menu Costs and Phillips Curves
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Mikhail Golosov Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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23 Dec 03
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19 Mar 09
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Mikhail Golosov Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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23 Apr 07
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19 Mar 09
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This paper develops a model of a monetary economy in which individual firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks as well as general inflation. Sellers can change price only by incurring a real 'menu cost'. We calibrate this cost and the variance and autocorrelation of the idiosyncratic shock using a new U.S. data set of individual prices due to Klenow and Kryvtsov. The prediction of the calibrated model for the effects of high inflation on the frequency of price changes accords well with international evidence from various studies. The model is also used to conduct numerical experiments on the economy's response to various shocks. In none of the simulations we conducted did monetary shocks induce large or persistent real responses.
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Mikhail Golosov Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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23 Dec 03
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07 Jan 04
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Abstract:
This paper develops a model of a monetary economy in which individual firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks as well as general inflation. Sellers can change price only by incurring a real 'menu cost'. We calibrate this cost and the variance and autocorrelation of the idiosyncratic shock using a new U.S. data set of individual prices due to Klenow and Kryvtsov. The prediction of the calibrated model for the effects of high inflation on the frequency of price changes accords well with the Israeli evidence obtained by Lach and Tsiddon. The model is also used to conduct numerical experiments on the economy's response to credible and incredible disinflations and other shocks. In none of the simulations we conducted did monetary shocks induce large or persistent real responses.
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Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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09 Aug 07
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05 Oct 07
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27 (149,394)
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A model is proposed to describe the evolution of real GDPs in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The five parameters of the model are calibrated using the Sachs-Warner definition of openness and time-series and cross-section data on incomes and other variables from the 19th and 20th centuries. The model predicts convergence of income levels and growth rates and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics.
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4.
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Ideas and Growth
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Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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30 Jun 08
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02 Jan 09
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Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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02 Jan 09
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02 Jan 09
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This paper introduces and partially develops a new model of endogenous technological change, viewed as the product of a class of problem-solving producers. The model, based on earlier work by Eaton and Kortum, is built up from the premise that all knowledge resides in the head of some individual person and the knowledge of a firm, or economy, or any group of people is simply the knowledge of the individuals that comprise it. The model is applied to an economy with a cohort structure. A calibration of the model using cross-section earnings data, in addition to aggregate GDP growth, is considered.
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Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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30 Jun 08
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29 Jul 08
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What is it about modern capitalist economies that allows them, in contrast to all earlier societies, to generate sustained growth in productivity and living standards? It is widely agreed that the productivity growth of the industrialized economies is mainly an ongoing intellectual achievement, a sustained flow of new ideas. Are these ideas the achievements of a few geniuses, Newton, Beethoven, and a handful of others, viewed as external to the activities of ordinary people? Are they the product of a specialized research sector, engaged in the invention of patent-protected processes over which they have monopoly rights? Both images are based on important features of reality and both have inspired interesting growth theories, but neither seems to me central. What is central, I believe, is that fact that the industrial revolution involved the emergence (or rapid expansion) of a class of educated people, thousands - now many millions - of people who spend entire careers exchanging ideas, solving work-related problems, generating new knowledge.
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Fernando Alvarez University of Chicago - Department of Economics Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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08 Feb 06
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08 Feb 06
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23 (158,762)
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We study a variation of the Eaton-Kortum model, a competitive, constant-returns-to-scale multicountry Ricardian model of trade. We establish existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium with balanced trade where each country imposes an import tariff. We analyze the determinants of the cross-country distribution of trade volumes, such as size, tariffs and distance, and compare a calibrated version of the model with data for the largest 60 economies. We use the calibrated model to estimate the gains of a world-wide trade elimination of tariffs, using the theory to explain the magnitude of the gains as well as the differential effect arising from cross-country differences in pre-liberalization of tariffs levels and country size.
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6.
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Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics Nancy L. Stokey University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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19 Jun 04
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11 Jul 04
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23 (158,762)
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Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.
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Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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23 Apr 04
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23 Apr 04
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Abstract:
This paper presents an empirical test of the proposition that control of a monetary aggregate will generate a rise in its velocity.The test is carried out utilizing the Canadian experience of controlling Ml growth from 1975:3 to 1982:3. Section One of the paper presents evidence of the instability of the Canadian demand from Ml money since 1975:3. Section Two develops a specific form of the proposition which emphasizes the role of asset substitution between classes of chartered bank deposits. A relative asset demand equation is derived from a wealth maximization model subject to a technological transactions constraint and this equation is estimated from 1961 through 1982.The results lend support to the proposition that central bank control of Ml generated a rise in Ml velocity.
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Fernando Alvarez University of Chicago - Department of Economics Francisco Javier Buera University of California, Los Angeles - Department of Economics Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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30 Jun 08
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02 Jun 09
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15 (181,535)
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This paper introduces several variations of the Eaton and Kortum (1999) model of technological change and characterizes their long run implications. Both exogenous and endogenous growth examples are studied.
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9.
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Andrew G. Atkeson University of California, Los Angeles - Department of Economics Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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12 Apr 04
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12 Apr 04
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14 (184,395)
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Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.
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10.
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Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics Michael D. Woodford Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics
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11 Jul 07
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11 Jul 07
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5 (207,894)
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3
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Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.
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11.
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Robert E. Lucas Jr. University of Chicago - Department of Economics
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26 Jan 04
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Last Revised:
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19 Mar 09
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0 (0)
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Abstract:
This paper is a theoretical study of rural-urban migration-urbanization - as it has occurred in many low-income economies in the postwar period. This process is viewed as a transfer of labor from a traditional, land-intensive technology to a human capital-intensive technology with an unending potential for growth. The model emphasizes the role of cities as places in which new immigrants can accumulate the skills required by modern production technologies.
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