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Point Shaving in College Basketball: A Cautionary Tale for Forensic EconomicsSteven L. HestonUniversity of Maryland - Department of Finance Dan BernhardtUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics August 25, 2008 Abstract: Point shaving is the practice by favored teams of attempting to win by less than the point spread to yield profits for gamblers who bet on the underdog. Consistent with point shaving, strong favorites are anomalously likely to win by less than the spread. To distinguish between innocent and criminal explanations, we (1) exploit information in line movements and (2) isolate games without betting lines to identify games where point shaving is implausible and document similar patterns. The data are better explained by strategic efforts to maximize the probability of winning. These findings highlight the importance of indirect method design.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 22 Keywords: pointshaving, gambling, forensic economics JEL Classification: L83, C14 working papers seriesDate posted: July 26, 2007 ; Last revised: August 29, 2008Suggested CitationContact Information
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