Mutual Fund Flows and Extrapolative Investors' Expectations: The German Case
Aachen University - Department of Finance
RWTH Aachen University - Faculty of Economics
August 17, 2007
In this paper the relation between aggregate mutual fund flows and stock market returns is analysed with respect to three issues. First, we study the relation between fund flows and long-term realized returns (past, current and future). Second, we find out that fund flows are not driven by fundamentally expected returns. Mutual fund investors appear to have naive expectations, as it seems that they just extrapolate past price trends into the future. This leads to a substantial performance loss of more than one percentage point per year. Third, the firstly presented results of the German fund market resemble those of the US market. Differences between the two fund markets do not seem to influence investor behaviour.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 18
Keywords: extrapolative expectations, institutional trading, investment flows, mutual funds, price impact
JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14, G23working papers series
Date posted: August 20, 2007
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