What is the Optimal Rate of Inflation for Long-Run Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis

Abstract:     
Although the relationship between financial development and growth is almost obvious, the effect of inflation on the finance-growth nexus is still a subject of debate. In particular, what is the optimal rate of inflation for long-run growth? To answer this question, I analyze the relation between finance, inflation and growth by using a semiparametric graphical approach. I find that the optimal level of inflation that leads to higher long-run growth rates is around 10 percent. I also show that the positive effects of low inflation on growth are more apparent when there are high levels of financial depth. Finally, when both the levels of inflation and financial depth are low, the growth rate of the economy is volatile.

Keywords: Financial development, Economic growth, Inflation, Cross-country analysis

JEL Classifications: E31, E44, F36

Working Paper Series