The Rise in U.S. Household Indebtedness: Causes and Consequences
Karen E. Dynan
US Treasury; affiliation not provided to SSRN
Donald L. Kohn
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
August 8, 2007
FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-37
The ratio of total household debt to aggregate personal income in the United States has risen from an average of 0.6 in the 1980s to an average of 1.0 so far this decade. In this paper we explore the causes and consequences of this dramatic increase. Demographic shifts, house price increases, and financial innovation all appear to have contributed to the rise. Households have become more exposed to shocks to asset prices through the greater leverage in their balance sheets, and more exposed to unexpected changes in income and interest rates because of higher debt payments relative to income. At the same time, an increase in access to credit and higher levels of assets should give households, on average, a greater ability to smooth through shocks. We conclude by discussing some of the risks associated with some households having become very highly indebted relative to their assets.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 45
Keywords: Household debt, consumer finance, personal saving
JEL Classification: E21, E44
Date posted: October 3, 2007
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