Robust Correlates of County-Level Growth in the U.S.

Abstract:     
Higgins et al. (2006) report several statistically significant partial correlates with U.S. per capita income growth. However, Levine and Renelt (1992) demonstrate that such correlations are hardly ever robust to changing the combination of conditioning variables included. We ask whether the same is true for the variables identified as important by Higgins et al. Using the extreme bounds analysis of Levine and Renelt, we find that the majority of the partial correlations can be accepted as robust. The variables associated with those partial correlations stand solidly as variables of interest for future studies of U.S. growth.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Conditional Convergence, Extreme Bounds Analysis, County-Level Data

JEL Classification: O40, O11, O18, O51, R11, H50, H70

Accepted Paper Series