Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1065980
 
 

References (46)



 
 

Citations (9)



 


 



The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections


Brad T. Gomez


affiliation not provided to SSRN

Thomas G. Hansford


affiliation not provided to SSRN

George A. Krause


University of Pittsburgh


Journal of Politics, Vol. 69, Issue 3, pp. 649-663, August 2007

Abstract:     
The relationship between bad weather and lower levels of voter turnout is widely espoused by media, political practitioners, and, perhaps, even political scientists. Yet, there is virtually no solid empirical evidence linking weather to voter participation. This paper provides an extensive test of the claim. We examine the effect of weather on voter turnout in 14 U.S. presidential elections. Using GIS interpolations, we employ meteorological data drawn from over 22,000 U.S. weather stations to provide election day estimates of rain and snow for each U.S. county. We find that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5%. Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party's vote share. Indeed, the weather may have contributed to two Electoral College outcomes, the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 15

Accepted Paper Series


Date posted: December 11, 2007  

Suggested Citation

Gomez, Brad T. and Hansford, Thomas G. and Krause, George A., The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections. Journal of Politics, Vol. 69, Issue 3, pp. 649-663, August 2007. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1065980 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00565.x

Contact Information

Brad T. Gomez (Contact Author)
affiliation not provided to SSRN
No Address Available
Thomas G. Hansford
affiliation not provided to SSRN
No Address Available
George A. Krause
University of Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, PA 15260
United States
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References:  46
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