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http://ssrn.com/abstract=1080247
 
 

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Assessing the Factors Behind Oil Price Changes


Stephane Dees


European Central Bank (ECB)

Audrey Gasteuil


Société Générale

Robert Kaufmann


Boston University - Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Department of Geography and Environment

Michael Mann


Boston University - Center for Energy & Environmental Studies - Department of Geography and Environment

January 2008

ECB Working Paper No. 855

Abstract:     
The rapid rise in the price of crude oil between 2004 and the summer of 2006 are the subject of debate. This paper investigates the factors that might have contributed to the oil price increase in addition to demand and supply for crude oil, by expanding a model for crude oil prices to include refinery utilization rates, a non-linear effect of OPEC capacity utilization, and conditions in futures markets as explanatory variables. Together, these factors allow the model to perform well relative to forecasts implied by the far month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and are able to account for much of the $26 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 39

Keywords: Oil prices, Refinery industry, OPEC

JEL Classification: C53, Q41

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Date posted: February 1, 2008  

Suggested Citation

Dees, Stephane and Gasteuil, Audrey and Kaufmann, Robert and Mann, Michael, Assessing the Factors Behind Oil Price Changes (January 2008). ECB Working Paper No. 855. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1080247

Contact Information

Stephane Dees (Contact Author)
European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )
Kaiserstrasse 29
Frankfurt am Main, D-60311
Germany
Audrey Gasteuil
Societe Generale Asset Management ( email )
Paris-La Défense, Paris 92987
France
Robert Kaufmann
Boston University - Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Department of Geography and Environment ( email )
Boston University
Boston, MA 02215
United States
Michael Mann
Boston University - Center for Energy & Environmental Studies - Department of Geography and Environment
Boston University
Boston, MA 02215
United States
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