Where Did All the Information Go? Trade in the Corporate Bond Market

Abstract

This paper examines shifting liquidity in the corporate bond market and illustrates how cross market comparisons can lead to misleading inferences regarding market efficiency when liquidity and trading patterns are ignored. For example, when institutional trade dominance and other bond trading features are accounted for, stock leads evidenced in earlier studies are surprisingly reversed. Moreover, bond prices often fully adjust to news before equity market open. Informational advantages are most pronounced during low equity market liquidity and price discovery periods. Finally, dynamic liquidity patterns give rise to ‘top bonds’, which are those attracting most institutional sized trades after news and are shown to play an important role in the price discovery process. These bonds shift identity over time but exhibit common ex-ante identifiable characteristics.

Keywords: Fixed Income, Credit Markets, Corporate Bond Prices, Informational Efficiency, Bond Market Liquidity, Institutional/Retail Investors

JEL Classification: G100