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The Stock Price Effects of Changes in Dispersion of Investor Beliefs during Earnings Announcements


Lynn L. Rees


Texas A&M University - Department of Accounting

Wayne B. Thomas


University of Oklahoma - Michael F. Price College of Business

2008


Abstract:     
Existing research provides competing theories as to how dispersion of investor beliefs might affect stock prices. We measure changes in dispersion of investor beliefs around earnings announcements using changes in the dispersion of individual analysts' forecasts. We find that the three-day market response to earnings announcements is negatively associated with changes in dispersion, consistent with the cost of capital hypothesis. The results hold after controlling for the current earnings surprise, forecast revisions of future earnings, and reported earnings relative to various earnings thresholds. Our study provides new insight about the information contained within earnings announcements that is incremental to the magnitude and timing of cash flows.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 51

Keywords: Dispersion of beliefs, cost of capital, equity call option, market friction, announcement returns

JEL Classification: G14, G14, G29, M41

working papers series


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Date posted: February 27, 2008 ; Last revised: April 15, 2008

Suggested Citation

Rees, Lynn L. and Thomas, Wayne B., The Stock Price Effects of Changes in Dispersion of Investor Beliefs during Earnings Announcements (2008). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1098896 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1098896

Contact Information

Lynn L. Rees
Texas A&M University (TAMU) - Department of Accounting ( email )
Mays Business School
College Station, TX 77843-4353
United States
979-845-6078 (Phone)
979-845-0028 (Fax)
Wayne B. Thomas (Contact Author)
University of Oklahoma - Michael F. Price College of Business ( email )
Michael F. Price College of Business,
307 W Brooks, Rm 212B
Norman, OK 73019
United States
405-325-5789 (Phone)
405-325-7348 (Fax)
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