Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Management: The Implications of Consumer Durables for the Small Open Economy
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Indiana University Bloomington - Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research
April 10, 2008
CAEPR Working Paper No. 2008-007
This paper examines exchange rate management issues when a small open economy is hit by an exogenous oil price shock. In this model consumer durables play an important role in the demand for oil and oil based products as opposed to the traditional role of oil as a factor of production. When prices are sticky, oil price shocks lead to reduced output, lower inflation, and real exchange rate deprecation. The output losses occur whether or not oil is in the production function because of the close relationship between consumer durables and oil. Tentative results suggest that flexible exchange rates produce smaller output losses and less volatile inflation in the non-tradables sector than fixed exchange rates but at the cost of front-loading real exchange rate movements.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 45
Keywords: oil, durables, exchange rates
JEL Classification: E31, F41, E52
Date posted: April 11, 2008 ; Last revised: June 27, 2008
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