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Do Citizens Know Whether Their State Has Decriminalized Marijuana? A Test of the Perceptual Assumption in Deterrence Theory
Robert MacCoun University of California, Berkeley - School of Law; University of California, Berkeley - Jurisprudence and Social Policy Program; University of California, Berkeley - The Richard & Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy Rosalie Liccardo Pacula The RAND Corporation; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Jamie F. Chriqui The MayaTech Corporation Katherine M. Harris RAND Corporation Peter H. Reuter University of Maryland July 14, 2008 3rd Annual Conference on Empirical Legal Studies Papers Abstract: Deterrence theory proposes that legal compliance is influenced by the anticipated risk of legal sanctions. This implies that changes in law will produce corresponding changes in behavior, but the marijuana decriminalization literature finds only fragmentary support for this prediction. But few studies have directly assessed the accuracy of citizens' perceptions of legal sanctions. The heterogeneity in state statutory penalties for marijuana possession across the United States provides an opportunity to examine this issue. Using national survey data, we find that the percentages who believe they could be jailed for marijuana possession are quite similar in both states that have removed those penalties and those that have not. Our results help to clarify why statistical studies have found inconsistent support for an effect of decriminalization on marijuana possession.
Keywords: Drugs, Marijuana, Deterrence, Compliance JEL Classifications: K14, K42 Working Paper SeriesDate posted: April 17, 2008 ; Last revised: July 17, 2008Suggested CitationContact Information
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