Security Analyst Superiority Relative to Univariate Time-Series Models in Forecasting Quarterly Earnings

Abstract:     
Evidence is provided of security analyst (SA) superiority relative to univariate time-series (TS) models in predicting firms' quarterly earnings numbers. It is demonstrated that SA forecast superiority in the sample is attributable to: 1. better use of information that exists on the date that TS model forecasts can be initiated, a contemporaneous advantage, and 2. use of information acquired between the date of initiation of TS model forecasts and the date when SA forecasts are published, a timing advantage.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 27

Accepted Paper Series