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The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries


Ivan Kitov


Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Institute for the Geospheres Dynamics

Oleg Kitov


University of Warwick

May 1, 2008


Abstract:     
The evolution of labor force participation rate is modeled using a lagged linear function of real economic growth, as expressed by GDP per capita. For the U.S., our model predicts at a two-year horizon with RMSFE of 0.28% for the period between 1965 and 2007. Larger part of the deviation between predicted and measured LFP is explained by artificial dislocations in measured time series induced by major revisions to the CPS methodology in 1979 and 1989. Similar models have been developed for Japan, the UK, France, Italy, Canada, and Sweden.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 29

Keywords: labor force participation, real GDP per capita, prediction

JEL Classification: C2, E6, J2

working papers series





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Date posted: May 7, 2008  

Suggested Citation

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg, The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries (May 1, 2008). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1130147 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1130147

Contact Information

Ivan O. Kitov (Contact Author)
Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Institute for the Geospheres Dynamics ( email )
Leninsky prospect 38/1
Moscow, Moscow 119334
Russia
HOME PAGE: http://idg3.chph.ras.ru
Oleg Kitov
University of Warwick ( email )
Gibbet Hill Rd.
Coventry, West Midlands CV4 8UW
United Kingdom
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