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Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and EvidenceOded GalorBrown University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, Department of Economics Andrew MountfordRoyal Holloway, University of London February 2008 CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6678 Abstract: This research argues that the differential effect of international trade on the demand for human capital across countries has been a major determinant of the distribution of income and population across the globe. In developed countries the gains from trade have been directed towards investment in education and growth in income per capita, whereas a significant portion of these gains in less developed economies have been channelled towards population growth. Cross-country regressions establish that indeed trade has positive effects on fertility and negative effects on education in non-OECD economies, while inducing fertility decline and human capital formation in OECD economies.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 44 Keywords: Demographic Transition, Growth, Human Capital, International Trade JEL Classification: F11, F43, J10, N30, O40 working papers seriesDate posted: June 9, 2008Suggested CitationContact Information
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