The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds: Violence and Public Opinion in the Second Intifada
David A. Jaeger
City University of New York Graduate Center; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); University of Cologne - Department of Economics
Esteban F. Klor
Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Sami H. Miaari
Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Eliezer Kaplan School of Economics and Social Sciences
Boston University - Department of Economics; Hebrew University of Jerusalem; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6793
This paper examines how violence in the Second Intifada influences Palestinian public opinion. Using micro data from a series of opinion polls linked to data on fatalities, we find that Israeli violence against Palestinians leads them to support more radical factions and more radical attitudes towards the conflict. This effect is temporary, however, and vanishes completely within 90 days. We also find some evidence that Palestinian fatalities lead to the polarization of the population and to increased disaffection and a lack of support for any faction. Geographically proximate Palestinian fatalities have a larger effect than those that are distant, while Palestinian fatalities in targeted killings have a smaller effect relative to other fatalities. Although overall Israeli fatalities do not seem to affect Palestinian public opinion, when we divide those fatalities by the different factions claiming responsibility for them, we find some evidence that increased Israeli fatalities are effective in increasing support for the faction that claimed them.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 51
Keywords: Israeli Fatalities, Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Palestinian Fatalities, Palestinian Public Opinion
JEL Classification: D72, D74, H56working papers series
Date posted: June 12, 2008
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