Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1147268
 
 

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Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters


Gianna Boero


University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Jeremy Smith


University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Kenneth F. Wallis


University of Warwick - Department of Economics

0000

The Economic Journal, Vol. 118, Issue 530, pp. 1107-1127, July 2008

Abstract:     
This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth and, hence, offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 21

Accepted Paper Series


Date posted: June 18, 2008  

Suggested Citation

Boero, Gianna and Smith, Jeremy and Wallis, Kenneth F., Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters (0000). The Economic Journal, Vol. 118, Issue 530, pp. 1107-1127, July 2008. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1147268 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02162.x

Contact Information

Gianna Boero
University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )
Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom
Jeremy P. Smith
University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )
Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom
Kenneth F. Wallis
University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )
Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom
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References:  24
Citations:  14

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