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http://ssrn.com/abstract=1154762
 
 

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Uncertainties in Technology Experience Curves for Integrated Assessment Models


Sonia Yeh


University of California, Davis - Institute of Transportation Studies

Edward Rubin


affiliation not provided to SSRN

David A. Hounshell


Carnegie Mellon University - Department of History

Margaret R. Taylor


University of California, Berkeley - The Richard & Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy

July 2, 2007

Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 43, No. 18, pp. 6907-6914, 2009

Abstract:     
The phenomenon of technological learning has been observed across a wide spectrum of energy and environmental technologies. Quantitative modeling of experience curves has become an increasingly common method of representing endogenous technical change in long-term integrated assessment models used for energy and environmental policy analysis. However, many issues remain to be addressed in the use of experience curves to quantify long-term cost trends of energy technologies. This paper highlights and critically reviews some of the major sources of uncertainty and their implications to model outcomes. It draws on recent empirical literature, as well as on new data characterizing historical cost trends in the early deployment of three environmental technologies especially relevant to energy systems. Our findings indicate the need for a more thorough and systematic examination of the uncertainty of experience curve formulations on the outcomes of energy and environmental policy analyses that extend over many decades.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 35

Keywords: Experience curve, learning curve, learning-by-doing, uncertainties, endogenous technological change, integrated assessment models

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Date posted: July 6, 2008 ; Last revised: April 19, 2012

Suggested Citation

Yeh, Sonia and Rubin, Edward and Hounshell, David A. and Taylor, Margaret R., Uncertainties in Technology Experience Curves for Integrated Assessment Models (July 2, 2007). Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 43, No. 18, pp. 6907-6914, 2009. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1154762

Contact Information

Sonia Yeh (Contact Author)
University of California, Davis - Institute of Transportation Studies ( email )
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
United States
HOME PAGE: http://steps.ucdavis.edu/People/slyeh
Edward Rubin
affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )
David A. Hounshell
Carnegie Mellon University - Department of History ( email )
College of Humanities and Social Sciences
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
United States
412 268-1019 (Phone)
Margaret R. Taylor
University of California, Berkeley - The Richard & Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy ( email )
2607 Hearst Avenue
Berkeley, CA 94720-7320
United States
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