What if Ireland Votes No?

Abstract:     
This paper was written in the expectation (subsequently proved correct) that the June 12, 2008 poll in Ireland concerning the granting of a constitutional licence for the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty would produce a 'no' vote. The article attempts to suggest possible answers to the difficult question of what the consequences of a 'no' vote will be, and breaks these down into five logical possibilities:(1) the collapse of the entire EU reform process for the foreseeable future and the maintenance in place for the foreseeable future of the arrangements agreed in Nice in 2000.(2) the renegotiation of the Lisbon settlement.(3) the agreement of a mini-treaty containing some but not all of the reforms in the Lisbon Treaty. (4) the continuation of the Lisbon arrangements by our 26 fellow member states with Ireland excluded from the reformed EU in some form or another; and (5) the maintenance of the Lisbon settlement but with special arrangements for Ireland.

Keywords: Lisbon, Treaty, referendum, Ireland, Treaty of Lisbon, Lisbon Treaty

JEL Classifications: K33

Working Paper Series