Do the Major Oil Companies Anticipate OPEC Production Allocations?
35 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2008
There are 2 versions of this paper
Do the Major Oil Companies Anticipate OPEC Production Allocations?
Date Written: July 1, 2008
Abstract
This paper uses regression and multivariate analysis to examine oil stock market and large oil company stock price data in 30 and 60 day windows either side of OPEC production allocation meetings. The study continues on to investigate cointegration and exogeneity over the full period in the sample. The results justify asking the question as to whether or not oil companies can anticipate the outcomes of production allocation meetings in the OPEC cartel. Do these companies have a surrogate cartel in OPEC? It is put that the pricing of crude oil has more to do with the behaviour of oil market protagonists than supply and demand forces and this has grave implications for the health of the global economy and financial system.
Keywords: OPEC, anticipation, crude oil returns, regression, production allocation
JEL Classification: F40
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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