Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1162631
 
 

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Forecasting the Density of Asset Returns


Trino-Manuel Niguez


affiliation not provided to SSRN

Javier Perote


Universidad Rey Juan Carlos - Department Economia; University of Salamanca

October 2004

LSE STICERD Research Paper No. EM479

Abstract:     
In this paper we introduce a transformation of the Edgeworth-Sargan series expansion of the Gaussian distribution, that we call Positive Edgeworth-Sargan (PES). The main advantage of this new density is that it is well defined for all values in the parameter space, as well as it integrates up to one. We include an illustrative empirical application to compare its performance with other distributions, including the Gaussian and the Student's t, to forecast the full density of daily exchange-rate returns by using graphical procedures. Our results show that the proposed function outperforms the other two models for density forecasting, then providing more reliable value-at-risk forecasts.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 30

JEL Classification: C16, C53, G12

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Date posted: July 21, 2008  

Suggested Citation

Niguez, Trino-Manuel and Perote, Javier, Forecasting the Density of Asset Returns (October 2004). LSE STICERD Research Paper No. EM479. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1162631

Contact Information

Trino-Manuel Niguez (Contact Author)
affiliation not provided to SSRN
No Address Available
Javier Perote Peña
Universidad Rey Juan Carlos - Department Economia ( email )
Mostoles - Madrid, E-28933
Spain
University of Salamanca ( email )
Campus Miguel de Unamuno
Economia e Historia Economica
37008 Salamanca
Spain
34-923-294640 (Phone)
34-923-294686 (Fax)
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