Exchange Rate Transmission into Industry-Level Export Prices: A Tale of Two Policy Regimes in India

Abstract:     
In the 1990s, India initiated extensive policy reforms that included the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime and an acceleration of trade liberalization. This paper analyzes the impact of the policy reforms on exchange rate pass-through into export prices using sectoral panel data (at the two-digit Standard International Trade Classification level) for the pre-reform (1980-90) and post-reform (1991-2001) periods. Several econometric tests revealed the existence of a structural break in pass-through into export prices around 1991. The panel results suggest that the number of industries exhibiting incomplete pass-through increased in the 1990s relative to the 1980s, reflecting a higher degree of pricing power by these firms as export prices react to exchange rate changes in more sectors, after having controlled for the effect of product shares, marginal cost variations, and a macroeconomic policy index. These changes in pass-through behavior may be partly attributable to the elimination of currency and trade controls, which increased competition among firms and fostered a concern with market share gains in the 1990s, over an attempt to make profits as a result of depreciation in the 1980s.

Keywords: exchange-rate pass-through, export prices, IMF, reforms, India

JEL Classification: F13, F14, F31, F41

Accepted Paper Series