The Disappearance that Wasn't? 'Random Variation' in the Number of Women Supreme Court Clerks

Abstract:     
In the world of American law, a Supreme Court clerkship is a position desired by many but attained by few. In the summer of 2006, news reports revealed that only seven out of the 37 clerks hired - a mere 19 percent - were women. This outcome represented a dramatic 50 percent drop from preceding years. Yet, two Justices portrayed the change as the result of "random variation," a claim that struck many observers at the time as incredible. This essay applies standard statistical reasoning to analyze what the dip in 2006 might indicate. We show that the year's decline in women, considered as one point in a time series, was not so improbable after all.

Keywords: Supreme Court clerks, employment, women, gender discrimination, time series, reversion to the mean

JEL Classifications: C40

Accepted Paper Series