Did Blacklisting Hurt the Tax Havens?

Abstract:     
Purpose - This paper tests the widely-held assumption that blacklisting, such as that practiced by the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and the FATF (Financial Action Task Force), affects the volume of financial activity associated with a tax haven.

Design/Methodology/Approach - ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) analysis is used to explore changes across eight measures of in banking-associated activity that occurred when a tax haven was placed on, or removed from, one FATF and two OECD blacklists.

Findings - The results are highly varied. Most importantly, no substantial and consistent impact of blacklisting on banking investment in and out of the tax havens was found across 38 jurisdictions.

Practical implications - The role of "speech acts" - unconnected with other developments in the havens or foreign policy measures beyond rhetoric - may not be as important for tax haven investment as previously thought.

Originality/Value - No rigorous and comprehensive study has previously been done of this important question.

Keywords: -Tax havens, OECD, FATF, blacklisting

Working Paper Series