Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion
European University Institute - Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS); University of Rome III - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Bank of Italy
Bank of Italy
September 4, 2005
Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 24, 2005
This paper builds on a standard factor model of stock market returns to reconsider recent empirical literature on contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis. According to this literature, contagion is defined as a structural break in the linear transmission mechanism of financial shocks. Using our framework, we show that the result of 'no contagion, only interdependence' stressed by recent contributions is due to arbitrary and unrealistic restrictions on the variance of country-specific shocks. We focus on the international effects of the Hong Kong stock market crisis of October 1997 as a case study. For plausible values of the variance of country-specific shocks in Hong Kong, current tests cannot reject the null of interdependence for 16 countries out of a sample of 17. Our analysis strongly questions such conclusion, finding evidence of 'contagion' for at least five countries.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 23
Keywords: Contagion; Financial crisis; Factor model; Correlation analysis
JEL Classification: F30, C10, G10, G15Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: September 5, 2008
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