Testing and Valuing Dynamic Correlations for Asset Allocation

Abstract:     
We evaluate alternative models of variances and correlations with an economic loss function. We construct portfolios to minimize predicted variance subject to a required return. It is shown that the realized volatility is smallest for the correctly specified covariance matrix for any vector of expected returns. A test of relative performance of two covariance matrices is based on Diebold and Mariano (1995). The method is applied to stocks and bonds and then to highly correlated assets. On average dynamically correct correlations are worth around 60 basis points in annualized terms but on some days they may be worth hundreds.

Keywords: GARCH, DCC, Forecast Evaluation

Accepted Paper Series