Modelling Stock Returns in Southern Africa's Equity Markets
Bruce Allen Hearn
University of Sussex
University of Stellbosch; King's College London - Department of Management
October 17, 2008
Journal for the Study of Economics and Econometrics, Forthcoming
This paper contrasts the forecasting performance of three time series models for three very small frontier equity markets and one merging market in Africa. In the light of proposed regional equity market integration this study reveals potential benefits from diversification to South African investors from Namibia while Swaziland and Mozambique markets remain segmented. The evidence suggests that the CAPM with GARCH representation of errors outperforms the standard GARCH in capturing information. It also sheds light on the higher transactions costs faced by rational investors in Swaziland and Mozambique through the substantially higher conditional variance present in these markets.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 19
Keywords: Portfolio Choice, Asset pricing, International Financial Markets, Sub-Saharan Africa
JEL Classification: G11, G12, G15, O55
Date posted: October 20, 2008
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