Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1294159
 
 

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The Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street


Hanno N. Lustig


UCLA - Anderson School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh


New York University Stern School of Business, Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

August 1, 2005

Review of Financial Studies (2008), 21(5)
NYU Working Paper No. FIN-05-023

Abstract:     
We use a standard single-agent model to conduct a simple consumption growthaccounting exercise. Consumption growth is driven by news about current and expected future returns on the market portfolio. The market portfolio includes financial and human wealth. We impute the residual of consumption growth innovations that cannot be attributed to either news about financial asset returns or future labor income growth to news about expected future returns on human wealth, and we back out the implied human wealth and market return process. This accounting procedure only depends on the agent's willingness to substitute consumption over time, not her consumption risk preferences. We find that innovations in current and future human wealth returns are negatively correlated with innovations in current and future financial asset returns, regardless of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. The evidence from the cross-section of stock returns suggests that the market return we back out of aggregate consumption innovations is a better measure of market risk than the return on the stock market.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 63

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Date posted: November 3, 2008 ; Last revised: August 27, 2012

Suggested Citation

Lustig, Hanno N. and Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, The Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street (August 1, 2005). Review of Financial Studies (2008), 21(5); NYU Working Paper No. FIN-05-023. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1294159

Contact Information

Hanno N. Lustig (Contact Author)
UCLA - Anderson School of Management ( email )
405 Hilgard Avenue
Box 951361
Los Angeles, CA 90095
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
New York University Stern School of Business, Department of Finance ( email )
44 West 4th Street
Suite 9-190
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
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